Denver @ Kansas City Thursday Night Pick

Denver Broncos (1-0) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-0)

Pick: KC (-3)

Peyton Manning and the Broncos offense didn't look so hot against the Ravens last week, but the defense made enough plays to pull off the win.  Now they have to face the Chiefs in Arrowhead, an extremely difficult place to win.  I'm taking the Chiefs to win and cover at -3 because I don't have confidence in Manning's arm anymore.  He looked awful against the Ravens and he has absolutely no zip on his passes.  I think the pass rush for KC will make him uncomfortable and force him to make mistakes and the Chiefs will get an early lead in the AFC South.

Super Bowl Game Picks

Super Bowl Game Picks

Josh’s Postseason Record: Winner (8-2); Spread (9-1)

New England Patriots (Even) vs Seattle Seahawks (Even) @ Glendale Arizona at 6:37 on Sunday

Josh’s Pick: New England Patriots win; 29-25

The hype has built over the last two weeks and ultimately Vegas has decided to make the game a Pick ‘em, which really shows how evenly matched these two teams are. To the Seahawks advantage they rarely have one of the defenses that has at least three players capable of covering matchup nightmare Rob Gronkowski (Kam Chancellor, Earl Thomas, Bobby Wagner). Inversely though, they might be troubled with the Patriots short quick pass game with Edelman, Amendola, and Vereen. When the Patriots design pass plays to be completed in less than three seconds they can take advantage of lenient and protective zone coverage (which the Seahawks love to play with on the edges) and also diffuse the pass rush that the Seahawks generate almost better than anyone in the league. If the Patriots want to win they can’t let themselves see multiple downs of 3^rd and 7 yards plus. The Pats need good protection on their offensive line to get some yards on the ground and get into manageable 3^rd down situations. The achilles heel of this Seattle defense is their run defense, so I would not be surprised to see Legarette Blunt open up the game on the first two drives with a lot of runs. I am taking the Patriots because of their defense though, not because of TB12 and the offense. As threatening as Russell Wilson’s legs are, with this much time to prepare, and with the athletic trio of Chandler Jones, Donta Hightower, and Jamie Collins; Bill Belichick will have a plan to minimize Russell Wilson’s scrambling. Marshawn Lynch is far and away the Patriots biggest concern, and a lot of A-Gap blitzes (up the middle of the line) could be the medicine the Pats need to neutralize Lynch. I expect this game to go down to the wire, but if the Seahawks get into a situation where they have to drop back and pass to win this game, it will fall heavily into the Patriots favor. I see the Pats coming out on top by the score of 29-25, with Jamie Collins as the MVP. 

Jack's pick: Seahawks 

Score: 24-23 

MVP: Marshawn Lynch

This season has been filled with great match ups that have been impossible to predict but this one takes the cake. I think this game could go either way but I am taking the Seahawks because of just how incredible their defense is. They just held the best Quarterback and league MVP Aaron Rodgers to 21 points even after Russell Wilson threw 4 INT's including two that gave the Packers an automatic 3 points. If the Seahawks can generate pressure on Brady while only rushing 4 they should be able to stop the well oiled machine that is the Pats offense. I think the single biggest matchup in the game will be Kam Chancellor on Rob Gronkowski. The way Gronk can completely dominate the middle of the field and the seams is a huge part of what the Pats do in the passing game. However, the Seahawks have the two best safeties in the league to play the middle and since the Patriots don't really have a deep threat they can play more towards the middle instead of having to give help over the top. I think this is why the Seahawks will be able to stop the Pats amazing offense by taking away their dominance over the middle of the field. This game will be a defensive struggle but I think the Seahawks walk away with a one point win. 

NFL Championship Playoff Game Picks

Josh’s Postseason Record: Spreads (6-2), Winners (7-1)

Green Bay Packers (13-4) +7.5 @ Seattle Seahawks (13-4) -7.5

Josh’s Pick: Green Bay Packers +7.5

Unfortunately I think Seattle will end up in the Super Bowl when this one is all said and done, but giving Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense an over a touchdown spread is too nice not to pick. Seattle’s offense gave me no confidence in their showing against Carolina, however there defense looked as stout as it has played all season long. Rodger’s torn calf muscle will impact the outcome of this one, as Rodger’s mobility is a big perk to his game. I could see the Packers winning but they need to protect the football and hope for a fumble by Wilson or Marshawn Lynch or hope for a rare Wilson interception. Seattle’s defense often creates for its offense and if the Packers can move the ball on long drives they can absolutely keep this one close and end up stealing the game on the road.

Jacks pick: Seattle

As much as I would love for the Aaron Rodgers to go on the road and grit out a win with a calf injury but I just can't see it happening. This defense is playing on a ridiculously high level and Rodgers showed a severe lack of mobility last week against a not great Dallas D. Usually he is one of the most mobile QB's in the league and he is going to need to extend plays to break down coverage by their secondary.  Unless Eddie Lacy really gets going I think the Seahawks will win this by at least 10 points. 

Indianapolis Colts (13-5) +6.5 @ New England Patriots (13-4) -6.5

Josh’s Pick: New England Patriots -6.5

Perhaps I am being a bit overconfident but I think the Colts are an ideal matchup for the Patriots. Offensively the Patriots are one of the most versatile teams in the league and create a lot of mismatches through their formations against a Colts’ defense that is somewhat devoid of top tier defenders. However, Andrew Luck can always keep games in contention and the game is never over until he allows it to be. The Patriots defense also was pretty flimsy against Baltimore a week ago, so if I were to make a bet, I believe the Packers are a safer pick to take. I can see the Patriots defense clamping down and forcing turnovers as they have the only other three times they have faced Andrew Luck. 

Jacks pick: New England Patriots -6.5 

I'm taking the Patriots to cover this one too. This team has been an absolute juggernaut at home this season and they have already beat the Colts. The time they beat the Colts Jonas Gray had 200 yards and 4 TD's but Indy has vastly improved their run since then with the return of LB Arthur Jones. I still think the Patriots offense is too complete to be stopped by the Colts and it would take a miracle game by Luck to pull out the win and I think the pats win by at least one TD. 

Divisional Round Playoff Game Picks

NFL Divisional Playoff Picks - With Spreads

Record Last Week: Winner (4-0), Spreads (3-1)

Baltimore Ravens (11-6) +7.5 @ New England Patriots (12-4) -7.5

Josh’s Pick: New England Patriots -7.5

Mostly a homer pick by me, but the Patriots can easily win this game by more than a touchdown if they get the ball in and out of Brady’s hands quickly, and if the offensive line plays better than it has in the last few weeks. The Ravens are always a tough game for the Patriots so it could also easily be closer.

Carolina Panthers (8-8-1) +10.5 @ Seattle Seahawks (12-4) -10.5

Josh’s Pick: Seattle Seahawks -10.5

I wanted to pick with my heart and take the Panthers, but in reality that is improbable. I think the crowd will be fire up the Seahawks defense and Russell Wilson will make some incredible with his legs. Marshawn Lynch was easily the best running back in the postseason a year ago and I could see that trend continuing. However, I do think this game will be closer than the final score suggests.

Dallas Cowboys (13-4) +6.5 @ Green Bay Packers (12-4) -6.5

Josh’s Pick: Dallas Cowboys +6.5

It’s unfortunate to hear that Aaron Rodgers will be playing with a slight tear in his calf to begin the postseason, and I do think that will limit his mobility and potential on some passing plays. I do think he will lead the Packers to a victory against a Dallas team that has a far better offense than they do defense. Inversely, the same thing goes for Tony Romo against the Packers defense. Julio Jones lit up the Packers for over 250 yards and I could see Dez Bryant having a big game to make this one a shoot-out. Ultimately I trust Aaron Rodgers on his home turf.

Indianapolis Colts (12-5) +7.5 @ Denver Broncos (12-4) -7.5

Josh’s Pick: Indianapolis Colts +7.5

I like Denver winning this one in the end, but not by more than a touchdown. I think Andrew Luck keeps this game close and it makes for one that comes down to the final few minutes. I think Peyton will look vulnerable but have a good enough game to outduel Andrew Luck. Von Miller, Demarcus Ware, Aqib Talib, Chris Harris, and TJ Ward also make for a harder defense to pass against. 

Wildcard Weekend Game Picks

Josh's Record: (165-74) (69.3%)
*did not pick season with spreads

Wildcard Weekend – with Spreads

Arizona Cardinals (11-5) (+5.5) @ Carolina Panthers (7-8-1) (-5.5)

Josh’s Pick: Arizona Cardinals +5.5

Although Carolina is on a four game win streak and coming off a big offensive performance against Atlanta in a “playoff” game, I don’t like them beating a credible defense like Arizona by more than -5.5. This game is somewhat similar to the Panthers matchup two weeks ago against the Browns where they won 17-13 while facing a solid overall defense and an unproductive quarterback. Carolina’s offense can be dangerous but is far from a sure bet in terms of frequent consistency. Arizona’s defense is one of the top units in the league and can definitely provide touchdowns or offensive scoring opportunities for Ryan Lindley and Co. to keep this game close. Ultimately I think the inconsistency and inexperience of Ryan Lindley will force Arizona to fall short of advancing to the divisional round.

Baltimore Ravens (10-6) +2.5 @ Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) -2.5

Josh’s Pick: Baltimore Ravens +2.5

These two teams almost always play each other close, and although Pittsburg is a superior team offensively, the absence of Le’Veon Bell makes me give Baltimore the slight edge. This is a very tough spread because if Pittsburgh wins by a field goal they beat the spread. However I think Baltimore has an excellent front seven and can rush the passer and force Ben Roethlisberger into an off outing. Le’Veon Bell was a big part in the passing game so his absence will be felt there as well, and I don’t think the Steelers will be able to make the adjustment with Ben Tate toting the rock.

Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) +3.5 @ Indianapolis Colts (11-5) -3.5

Josh’s Pick: Indianapolis Colts -3.5

Andy Dalton comes into this game with an 0-3 record in the postseason. He still hasn’t proven that he can be dangerous in clutch situations and with his lead target AJ Green limited all week in practice and listed as questionable with a concussion, I don’t see him coming through in crunch time on Sunday. If the Bengals perform well offensively, I expect the reason to be because of their running game which has been for the most part solid all season long. Milking the clock and keeping Andrew Luck on the sideline is a good thing when you are the opposing team. I just think the Colts offense and Luck is too dangerous to pick against with only a -3.5 spread.

Detroit Lions (11-5) +7.5 @ Dallas Cowboys (12-4) -7.5

Josh’s Pick: Detroit Lions +7.5

I believe Dallas will win this game but not with the spread of -7.5. Matthew Stafford is 0-16 on the road against teams above .500 and I don’t see him snapping that streak in his second playoff appearance. I’m picking against the spread because has Detroit had a monster season on defense, and even held an Aaron Rodgers led offense to under 24 points twice in the same season (the Packers had a punt return for a TD last week).  For Dallas, Tony Romo has been as solid as they come this year and with the combined trio of Demarco Murray and Dez Bryant, their offense has been a well-oiled machine this year. I don’t necessarily think Demarco Murray will have his best outing against the formidable front seven of the Lions, but I expect Romo, Bryant and Terrence Williams to make some plays to give Dallas the win.