Denver @ Kansas City Thursday Night Pick

Denver Broncos (1-0) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-0)

Pick: KC (-3)

Peyton Manning and the Broncos offense didn't look so hot against the Ravens last week, but the defense made enough plays to pull off the win.  Now they have to face the Chiefs in Arrowhead, an extremely difficult place to win.  I'm taking the Chiefs to win and cover at -3 because I don't have confidence in Manning's arm anymore.  He looked awful against the Ravens and he has absolutely no zip on his passes.  I think the pass rush for KC will make him uncomfortable and force him to make mistakes and the Chiefs will get an early lead in the AFC South.

Super Bowl Game Picks

Super Bowl Game Picks

Josh’s Postseason Record: Winner (8-2); Spread (9-1)

New England Patriots (Even) vs Seattle Seahawks (Even) @ Glendale Arizona at 6:37 on Sunday

Josh’s Pick: New England Patriots win; 29-25

The hype has built over the last two weeks and ultimately Vegas has decided to make the game a Pick ‘em, which really shows how evenly matched these two teams are. To the Seahawks advantage they rarely have one of the defenses that has at least three players capable of covering matchup nightmare Rob Gronkowski (Kam Chancellor, Earl Thomas, Bobby Wagner). Inversely though, they might be troubled with the Patriots short quick pass game with Edelman, Amendola, and Vereen. When the Patriots design pass plays to be completed in less than three seconds they can take advantage of lenient and protective zone coverage (which the Seahawks love to play with on the edges) and also diffuse the pass rush that the Seahawks generate almost better than anyone in the league. If the Patriots want to win they can’t let themselves see multiple downs of 3^rd and 7 yards plus. The Pats need good protection on their offensive line to get some yards on the ground and get into manageable 3^rd down situations. The achilles heel of this Seattle defense is their run defense, so I would not be surprised to see Legarette Blunt open up the game on the first two drives with a lot of runs. I am taking the Patriots because of their defense though, not because of TB12 and the offense. As threatening as Russell Wilson’s legs are, with this much time to prepare, and with the athletic trio of Chandler Jones, Donta Hightower, and Jamie Collins; Bill Belichick will have a plan to minimize Russell Wilson’s scrambling. Marshawn Lynch is far and away the Patriots biggest concern, and a lot of A-Gap blitzes (up the middle of the line) could be the medicine the Pats need to neutralize Lynch. I expect this game to go down to the wire, but if the Seahawks get into a situation where they have to drop back and pass to win this game, it will fall heavily into the Patriots favor. I see the Pats coming out on top by the score of 29-25, with Jamie Collins as the MVP. 

Jack's pick: Seahawks 

Score: 24-23 

MVP: Marshawn Lynch

This season has been filled with great match ups that have been impossible to predict but this one takes the cake. I think this game could go either way but I am taking the Seahawks because of just how incredible their defense is. They just held the best Quarterback and league MVP Aaron Rodgers to 21 points even after Russell Wilson threw 4 INT's including two that gave the Packers an automatic 3 points. If the Seahawks can generate pressure on Brady while only rushing 4 they should be able to stop the well oiled machine that is the Pats offense. I think the single biggest matchup in the game will be Kam Chancellor on Rob Gronkowski. The way Gronk can completely dominate the middle of the field and the seams is a huge part of what the Pats do in the passing game. However, the Seahawks have the two best safeties in the league to play the middle and since the Patriots don't really have a deep threat they can play more towards the middle instead of having to give help over the top. I think this is why the Seahawks will be able to stop the Pats amazing offense by taking away their dominance over the middle of the field. This game will be a defensive struggle but I think the Seahawks walk away with a one point win. 

NFL Championship Playoff Game Picks

Josh’s Postseason Record: Spreads (6-2), Winners (7-1)

Green Bay Packers (13-4) +7.5 @ Seattle Seahawks (13-4) -7.5

Josh’s Pick: Green Bay Packers +7.5

Unfortunately I think Seattle will end up in the Super Bowl when this one is all said and done, but giving Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense an over a touchdown spread is too nice not to pick. Seattle’s offense gave me no confidence in their showing against Carolina, however there defense looked as stout as it has played all season long. Rodger’s torn calf muscle will impact the outcome of this one, as Rodger’s mobility is a big perk to his game. I could see the Packers winning but they need to protect the football and hope for a fumble by Wilson or Marshawn Lynch or hope for a rare Wilson interception. Seattle’s defense often creates for its offense and if the Packers can move the ball on long drives they can absolutely keep this one close and end up stealing the game on the road.

Jacks pick: Seattle

As much as I would love for the Aaron Rodgers to go on the road and grit out a win with a calf injury but I just can't see it happening. This defense is playing on a ridiculously high level and Rodgers showed a severe lack of mobility last week against a not great Dallas D. Usually he is one of the most mobile QB's in the league and he is going to need to extend plays to break down coverage by their secondary.  Unless Eddie Lacy really gets going I think the Seahawks will win this by at least 10 points. 

Indianapolis Colts (13-5) +6.5 @ New England Patriots (13-4) -6.5

Josh’s Pick: New England Patriots -6.5

Perhaps I am being a bit overconfident but I think the Colts are an ideal matchup for the Patriots. Offensively the Patriots are one of the most versatile teams in the league and create a lot of mismatches through their formations against a Colts’ defense that is somewhat devoid of top tier defenders. However, Andrew Luck can always keep games in contention and the game is never over until he allows it to be. The Patriots defense also was pretty flimsy against Baltimore a week ago, so if I were to make a bet, I believe the Packers are a safer pick to take. I can see the Patriots defense clamping down and forcing turnovers as they have the only other three times they have faced Andrew Luck. 

Jacks pick: New England Patriots -6.5 

I'm taking the Patriots to cover this one too. This team has been an absolute juggernaut at home this season and they have already beat the Colts. The time they beat the Colts Jonas Gray had 200 yards and 4 TD's but Indy has vastly improved their run since then with the return of LB Arthur Jones. I still think the Patriots offense is too complete to be stopped by the Colts and it would take a miracle game by Luck to pull out the win and I think the pats win by at least one TD. 

Divisional Round Playoff Game Picks

NFL Divisional Playoff Picks - With Spreads

Record Last Week: Winner (4-0), Spreads (3-1)

Baltimore Ravens (11-6) +7.5 @ New England Patriots (12-4) -7.5

Josh’s Pick: New England Patriots -7.5

Mostly a homer pick by me, but the Patriots can easily win this game by more than a touchdown if they get the ball in and out of Brady’s hands quickly, and if the offensive line plays better than it has in the last few weeks. The Ravens are always a tough game for the Patriots so it could also easily be closer.

Carolina Panthers (8-8-1) +10.5 @ Seattle Seahawks (12-4) -10.5

Josh’s Pick: Seattle Seahawks -10.5

I wanted to pick with my heart and take the Panthers, but in reality that is improbable. I think the crowd will be fire up the Seahawks defense and Russell Wilson will make some incredible with his legs. Marshawn Lynch was easily the best running back in the postseason a year ago and I could see that trend continuing. However, I do think this game will be closer than the final score suggests.

Dallas Cowboys (13-4) +6.5 @ Green Bay Packers (12-4) -6.5

Josh’s Pick: Dallas Cowboys +6.5

It’s unfortunate to hear that Aaron Rodgers will be playing with a slight tear in his calf to begin the postseason, and I do think that will limit his mobility and potential on some passing plays. I do think he will lead the Packers to a victory against a Dallas team that has a far better offense than they do defense. Inversely, the same thing goes for Tony Romo against the Packers defense. Julio Jones lit up the Packers for over 250 yards and I could see Dez Bryant having a big game to make this one a shoot-out. Ultimately I trust Aaron Rodgers on his home turf.

Indianapolis Colts (12-5) +7.5 @ Denver Broncos (12-4) -7.5

Josh’s Pick: Indianapolis Colts +7.5

I like Denver winning this one in the end, but not by more than a touchdown. I think Andrew Luck keeps this game close and it makes for one that comes down to the final few minutes. I think Peyton will look vulnerable but have a good enough game to outduel Andrew Luck. Von Miller, Demarcus Ware, Aqib Talib, Chris Harris, and TJ Ward also make for a harder defense to pass against. 

Wildcard Weekend Game Picks

Josh's Record: (165-74) (69.3%)
*did not pick season with spreads

Wildcard Weekend – with Spreads

Arizona Cardinals (11-5) (+5.5) @ Carolina Panthers (7-8-1) (-5.5)

Josh’s Pick: Arizona Cardinals +5.5

Although Carolina is on a four game win streak and coming off a big offensive performance against Atlanta in a “playoff” game, I don’t like them beating a credible defense like Arizona by more than -5.5. This game is somewhat similar to the Panthers matchup two weeks ago against the Browns where they won 17-13 while facing a solid overall defense and an unproductive quarterback. Carolina’s offense can be dangerous but is far from a sure bet in terms of frequent consistency. Arizona’s defense is one of the top units in the league and can definitely provide touchdowns or offensive scoring opportunities for Ryan Lindley and Co. to keep this game close. Ultimately I think the inconsistency and inexperience of Ryan Lindley will force Arizona to fall short of advancing to the divisional round.

Baltimore Ravens (10-6) +2.5 @ Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) -2.5

Josh’s Pick: Baltimore Ravens +2.5

These two teams almost always play each other close, and although Pittsburg is a superior team offensively, the absence of Le’Veon Bell makes me give Baltimore the slight edge. This is a very tough spread because if Pittsburgh wins by a field goal they beat the spread. However I think Baltimore has an excellent front seven and can rush the passer and force Ben Roethlisberger into an off outing. Le’Veon Bell was a big part in the passing game so his absence will be felt there as well, and I don’t think the Steelers will be able to make the adjustment with Ben Tate toting the rock.

Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) +3.5 @ Indianapolis Colts (11-5) -3.5

Josh’s Pick: Indianapolis Colts -3.5

Andy Dalton comes into this game with an 0-3 record in the postseason. He still hasn’t proven that he can be dangerous in clutch situations and with his lead target AJ Green limited all week in practice and listed as questionable with a concussion, I don’t see him coming through in crunch time on Sunday. If the Bengals perform well offensively, I expect the reason to be because of their running game which has been for the most part solid all season long. Milking the clock and keeping Andrew Luck on the sideline is a good thing when you are the opposing team. I just think the Colts offense and Luck is too dangerous to pick against with only a -3.5 spread.

Detroit Lions (11-5) +7.5 @ Dallas Cowboys (12-4) -7.5

Josh’s Pick: Detroit Lions +7.5

I believe Dallas will win this game but not with the spread of -7.5. Matthew Stafford is 0-16 on the road against teams above .500 and I don’t see him snapping that streak in his second playoff appearance. I’m picking against the spread because has Detroit had a monster season on defense, and even held an Aaron Rodgers led offense to under 24 points twice in the same season (the Packers had a punt return for a TD last week).  For Dallas, Tony Romo has been as solid as they come this year and with the combined trio of Demarco Murray and Dez Bryant, their offense has been a well-oiled machine this year. I don’t necessarily think Demarco Murray will have his best outing against the formidable front seven of the Lions, but I expect Romo, Bryant and Terrence Williams to make some plays to give Dallas the win. 

Week 16 NFL Game Picks

Josh's Record (156-67) - (2-1 so far this week) 

Jack's Record (131-75) - (2-1 so far this week)

Minnesota Vikings (6-8) @ Miami Dolphins (7-7) at 1PM on Sunday

Josh’s Pick: Dolphins

Despite losing their last two games against AFC playoff opponents (the Ravens and the Patriots), I like Miami being able to take advantage of a young Vikings team. Miami struggles most against the run and Minnesota won’t be able to utilize that as Matt Asiata will be the lead back again for the purple people eaters. Bridgewater should have another modest game that shows his potential but ultimately the Miami pass rush will be able to create big plays for the ‘Fins defense and hand Miami the home win.

Jack’s Pick: Dolphins

Following back to back losses, the Dolphins are essentially out of the playoff race in the AFC.  I still think they will beat Minnesota because they are playing at home where their pass rush excels and it will be able to bother young QB Teddy Bridgewater.  

Baltimore Ravens (9-5) @ Houston Texans (7-7) at 1PM on Sunday

Josh’s Pick: Ravens

The Ravens exhibited offensive struggles last week against a 2-12 Jaguars team that ultimately came down to the final drive of the game. I would be slightly concerned as a Ravens fan as the ground game looked inept most of the afternoon, but I look for Justin Forsett and Bernard Pierce to pick some more yards up this week against a Texans defense that sporadically struggles against the run. Arian Foster should be the focal point of the offense for the Texans, as Case Keenum will be starting for Houston. That plays well to the strength of the Ravens defense who loves stopping the run with rookies Timmy Jernigan and CJ Mosely. The Ravens have had a poor pass defense since DB Jimmy Smith went out for a season and I don’t see the Texans being able to expose that in Keenum’s first start of the season, so I am taking the Ravens.

Jack’s Pick: Ravens

This is a huge game for the Ravens as the team that is one game ahead of them in the division race, the Bengals, have the Broncos coming up, so a win today and a Bengals loss can help the Ravens a lot when it comes to playoff position.  It could also greatly help America by not making us watch Andy Dalton implode in the postseason for the 4^th straight year.  I think the Ravens will win this one on the road to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Detroit Lions (10-4) @ Chicago Bears (5-9) at 1PM on Sunday

Josh’s Pick: Lions

When these two teams played earlier on Thanksgiving the Bears had no answer for Calvin Johnson as he was wide open on seemingly every ball thrown his way. I don’t think they will have an answer for him again, and even if they do that leaves a lot of opportunities open for Golden Tate and their squad of tightends. Jimmy Clausen will also be getting the start for the Bears and although his play is a variable, I am airing on the side of caution and trusting a Lions secondary that has made plays and turnovers all season long.

Jack’s Pick: Lions

I don’t know what shows that your team has hit the basement more: starting Jimmy Clausen in week 16 or paying Jay Cutler 15 million guaranteed next year.  I think this will be a repeat of thanksgiving and the Lions will come out and feast on the young secondary of the Bears en route to an easy win.

Cleveland Browns (7-7) @ Carolina Panthers (5-8-1) at 1PM on Sunday

Josh’s Pick: Panthers

I’m not ready to write Johnny Manziel off but that was a terrible first start for the rookie. Cam Newton returns to action at home this week after coming back from his car accident back injury. I look for Cam to provide the Panthers with enough of a spark to overcome a nulled Cleveland offense and stay alive in the NFC South title race (with a win and a Saints loss, they would lead the NFC South heading into week 17). So motivation has a lot to do with why I am taking the Panthers.

Jack’s Pick: Panthers

If there is a defense that Johnny Football would benefit the most from playing right now it might be the Panthers, or it is at least located in the NFC South.  I think the Panthers win this one but Johnny will at least have some success and show some flashes of what he could potentially be. 

Atlanta Falcons (5-9) @ New Orleans Saints (6-8) at 1PM on Sunday

Josh’s Pick: Saints

Atlanta took the first divisional game back in week 1 and I look for the Saints to respond by winning on their home turf, something they have abnormally struggled with the ladder half of this season. I believe Drew Brees knows how to win big games and I think he comes through and has a masterful performance against a subpar Falcons defense. I think Matt Ryan has a great game as well but Brees gets the edge from a fired up home crowd. If the Saints win, they have full control of the NFC South going into week 17.

Jack’s Pick: Saints

I think New Orleans will win this game and get an advantage on securing a HOME PLAYOFF GAME AT 6-10 OR 7-9, while my eagles are going to go 10-6 and miss the playoffs.  No I’m not bitter whatsoever. 

Green Bay Packers (10-4) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-12) at 1PM on Sunday

Josh’s Pick: Packers

I want to say this one could be close but I don’t see it happening. Even though Rodgers isn’t nearly as great on the road as he is at home, there is no way he has back to back weeks where he plays the worst two single games of his career. I look for the receivers to have sharper hands this week as well (as they usually do) and for the Packers to bounce back in a big-positive way in Tampa.

Jack’s Pick: Packers

This game really shouldn’t be much of a contest as Tampa would benefit much more from losing this game for a high draft pick and GB is looking for a number one seed.  Also I like Rodgers against this secondary all day.

Kansas City Chiefs (8-6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (9-5) at 1PM on Sunday

Josh’s Pick: Steelers

I really like this matchup for the Steelers as the Chiefs really struggle against the rush, ranking 28^th in rush defense. The strength of the Chiefs defense is their pass defense accompanied by their pass rush which I look for the Steelers to diffuse with quick passes to Le’Veon Bell in flat as well as screens to Antonio Brown. The weakness of the Steelers defense is their secondary and I don’t see Alex Smith and the often criticized Chiefs receiving corps to be able to take advantage of Ike Taylor, Cortez Allen, and William Gay. This game has major playoff implications in the AFC so it is definitely one to watch.

Jack’s Pick: Chiefs

This game is an absolute must win for both teams if they want to stay alive in the playoff race.  KC is now technically 3^rd in the division with SD’s comeback win over SF yesterday so they need a win to keep their chances alive.  I think they will beat the Steelers and my bold prediction is that in week 16 the Chiefs will finally have a WR score a TD.

New England Patriots (11-3) @ New York Jets (3-11)

Josh’s Pick: Patriots

The Jets played the Patriots about as well as they could have in their previous Thursday night matchup earlier this year, and I look for the Patriots to respond as if they had lost the game. The Patriots know that they have to win out (or hope for a Denver loss) to retain the number one seed in the AFC and have the playoffs go through Gillete.  Knowing this, I think Tom Brady has a great day through the air and picks a part a Jets secondary that has been victimized all season long by opposing quarterbacks. The Jets will have to run the ball often and successfully, like they did in their previous match up, to have a chance in this one.

Jack’s Pick: Patriots

New England is looking for that number one seed to secure home field advantage throughout the playoffs which may secure them a trip to the superbowl with how dominant they have been at home.  Jets should just continue to #SuckForTheDuck and lose this game so they can remove whatever is left of Geno Smith and Mike Vick from the starting QB position.

New York Giants (5-9) @ St. Louis Rams (6-8)

Josh’s Pick: Rams

The Rams have played solid football the second half of this season with some very credible wins on their “resume.” I honestly see this game going either way, but I am having confidence in the Rams pass rush to disrupt Eli Manning enough to have him make some costly turnovers. This game has no playoff implications but the Rams are always a fun team to watch, as is Giants rookie Odell Beckham Jr. (OBJ) who could be in for another big game as the Rams don’t really have a corner to shut him down (I feel like he would torch Janoris Jenkins on some plays). If the Rams can somewhat contain OBJ then I believe they win this football game.

Jack’s Pick:

Buffalo Bills (8-6) @ Oakland Raiders (2-12)

Josh’s Pick: Bills

Oakland has two wins this year, the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Fransisco 49ers who are two credible teams in the NFL, so no game is truly out of reach for them. However, arguably no team had a better week 15 then the Buffalo Bills who gave Aaron Rodgers the worst outing of his career and by far of this season. In week 14 the Bills also snapped Peyton Manning’s consecutive TD record and played them close all day long. Although this could be a trap game for Buffalo and it could be close (1-2 score game), they are one of the hottest team in football vying for a spot in the playoffs and I don’t see them faltering against an inferior opponent.

Jack’s Pick: Buffalo

Buffalo is coming off a very impressive win over the Packers and have been the first team to stop Aaron Rodgers since the famous r-e-l-a-x press conference.  I see them picking up an easy win today on their road to going 10-6 and missing the playoffs, Bills fans you can join Eagles fans at the bar. 

Indianapolis Colts (10-4) @ Dallas Cowboys (9-5)

Josh’s Pick: Colts

I am big on the Cowboys band wagon this season as a legitimate team but they have struggled at home this season and this game isn’t exactly a must win for them (although it puts the pressure off til next week if they lose). The Colts lead the NFL in passing offense while the Cowboys are 23^rd in defending the pass. The Colts have a completely middle of the road defense but Vontae Davis matches up as well as a corner could against Dez Bryant (I still expect Dez to win some of those matchups). The Cowboys can win if they grind Demarco Murray and control the clock but that is also unlikely as Murray will be playing hampered with a broken hand. Even with minimal time Andrew Luck is still dangerous and can put points up fast so I am expecting somewhat of a shootout and an exciting game to watch. Dallas is also 7-0 on the road but only 2-5 on their home turf which is not exactly the record you want heading into a home game against a strong opponent in week 16.

Jack’s Pick: Cowboys

With a win today the Cowboys will secure the NFC East division crown and a playoff spot.  Indy really has nothing to play for because they already clinched the division and have almost 0 chance of catching the Pats for a number one seed.  So the Cowboys should sadly lock this one up.

Seattle Seahawks (10-4) @ Arizona Cardinals (11-3)

Josh’s Pick: Seahawks

I don’t know who I would rather have win this game, but Seattle is going to win it. Whether Ryan Lindley or Logan Thomas starts, the Seahawks defense will overwhelm them on the road as they have been playing their best football in the recent weeks. Russell Wilson and the ‘Hawks offense won’t exactly look pretty but it will be enough to scrape out the road win for the defending champs. If the Seahawks win this week they also claim the number one seed in the NFC.

Jack’s Pick: Cardinals

If the Cardinals somehow pull this win off with 0 running game and Ryan Lindley starting at QB I would start investigating to see if there is evidence of wizardry happening in Arizona.  I think the Cardinals will be barely able to move the ball in this game and could easily be shut out by the Seahawks D.

Denver Broncos (10-4) @ Cincinnati Bengals (9-4-1)

Josh’s Pick: Broncos

I love picking against the Broncos but I don’t have enough confidence in the Bengals to do it this week even at home. Peyton has to have an off game for the Bengals to win this one, as Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders should have some open targets as the Denver offense creates open players with the amount of talent the team possesses. Aqib Talib also lines up beautifully wit AJ Green and I have way more confidence in the Denver defense (also with Ware, Miller, and Ward) to win this game for the Broncos then I do in the Denver offense. Andy Dalton also sputters in big games, and I look for this to be the week that the Bengals finally lose the lead they have in the AFC North.

Jack’s Pick: Broncos

I don’t have faith in Andy Dalton being able to outplay Peyton Manning on Monday night even if it is in Cincy.  I think Manning will have a big day against the Bengals secondary.  Also, the Broncos have been incredibly tough against the run this year which takes away the biggest weapon the Bengals have on offense so the Broncos should be able to win this one. 

Week 16 Picks 

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins 

Jacks pick: Eagles 

The Eagles are coming off a probably season ending loss to the Cowboys where the much maligned Bradley Fletcher singlehandedly blew their season by being burnt by Dez Bryant for 3 TD's. Fun stuff. I still think they will beat the Skins because it is a do or die game for them as they have to win out to make the playoffs and the skins have no reason to win. Also the Eagles are a much better team in all facets of the game so I don't think this game should be trouble for the Eagles. 

Josh's pick: Eagles 

Even with RG3 starting again there is way too much turnover at the quarterback position for Washington to put together a fluid offensive game against an Eagles defense that usually holds it's own. The eagles have been spiraling lately, losing there last two home games. I look for them to bounce back by praying on a redskins team that has been internally problematic all season long. 

San Diego Chargers at San Francisco 49ers 

Jack's pick: Chargers 

The Niners offense has been an absolute train wreck the last few weeks. They haven't had much of a run game and Kaepernick has been abysmal. They couldn't even put up points against a horrible Raiders team. Although the Niners do still have a solid defense, Phillip Rivers and his receiving core will be a tough test for the Niners. I don't think Kaep will be able to match Phillip Rivers production and the Chargers will win. 

Josh's pick:  Chargers 

Both of these teams have wavered their play down the back half of this season and I like the Chargers taking this one because of how Phillip Rivers performs in December compared to how Colin Kaepernick always performs. The Chargers lost Keenan Allen for the season which is a major blow to any offense as he was their number one wide receiver. I would look for Antonio Gates to get more looks or Eddie Royal/Malcolm Floyd to step up. The 49ers defense has performed admirably this season despite being without two of the games best players Navarro Bowman and Patrick Willis, however I am giving San Diego the slight edge because the 49ers offense won't be that efficient against the Chargers solid pass defense.