Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts: Indianapolis Colts: Reasoning: Kansas City sported an easy schedule, while also showing they can’t win the big games. Kansas City had 10 of its 11 wins against non-playoff teams, only beating the Eagles in week 2, and since week 2, the Eagles are a vastly improved and different team. They are also the coldest team heading into the playoffs, going 2-5 in their final 7 games after starting 9-0. I also don’t see someone as talented as Andrew Luck starting his career 0-2 in the NFL postseason.
New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles: New Orleans Saints: Reasoning: Aside from
my personal prejudice against Nick Foles, the Eagles have the league’s worst
pass defense and gave up 358 yards to Kyle Orton in their most important game this
season. Drew Brees just threw above 5000 yards….for the fourth time in his
career. That mismatch alone, and the fact the Saints run defense isn’t awful,
will give them the victory. I would be willing to reconsider this pick if
weather becomes a MAJOR factor.
San Diego Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals: San Diego Chargers: Reasoning: This is my
upset pick for the weekend. I am picking the Chargers partially because they
are a team of fate this season. And although that may sound like a load of
crap, their highest percentage to make the playoffs since week 1 of this season was at 19% and
that was in week 16. Odds were against them all season, and going into
Cincinnati, where the Bengals boast an undefeated record at home, the odds couldn’t
be more stacked against them. The Bengals however, do have the second most TDs
scored this season in the AFC outside of the Denver Broncos, but
two of the three times that the Broncos failed to scored 30+ in a game came
against San Diego. Phillip Rivers also was quietly the second best statistical quarterback
to play all 16 games. While, the Bengals strength is their pass defense, I
still see Rivers being a veteran quarterback and throwing together a quality
game. I predict Andy Dalton will make a few too many mistakes and Rivers plays
a sharp, but not godly, game to allow the Chargers to steal this one from the
Bengals.
San
Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers: Green Bay Packers: Reasoning: The Packers
are a completely different team with Aaron Rodgers in the lineup. If this was
Rodgers first game back and he had not played in the division victory over the
Bears, I would be picking the 49ers, as a team can’t just throw players in
after missing significant time and expect a well-oiled machine. Although, I slowly believe that this Packers
defense is starting to stiffen and if they can FINALLY defend the read option
to an acceptable level, like every other team in the NFL, then they can eke out
a close home win over the 49ers. However, it will be very tough for Green Bay
to defend Vernon Davis, Anquan Boldin, and now Michael Crabtree. Those weapons
alone will make Kaepernick look like a much better QB than he actually is. If
the Pakcers can take two of those guys out of the game, (doubling Vernon Davis
with an LB and a Safety and trusting speedy Sam Shields on the recovering
Crabtree), it will be a major defensive victory for the Packers. Another reason
why I am taking the Packers; look at some of the 49ers tough games this year: a
loss 27-7 to the Colts, a near loss to Atlanta that was saved by an amazing
play Navarro Bowman, and a road loss to the Saints. All three of those teams feature a star quarterback
(Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck, Drew Brees) in a high octane passing offense that the
49ers struggled against. Although the
49ers bested the Packers earlier this season, that game was in Candlestick, and
didn’t feature the same likely OROY Eddie Lacey of the Packers. You can also
not look at the 49ers record and argue that they are the better team as they
were gifted with a very easy schedule this season, winning 10 of their games
against non-playoff teams, while they were a mere 2-4 against playoff teams.
