Super Bowl Pick

By: Josh Fyffe
Record: 5-5
Last Week: 1-1

Denver Broncos vs Seattle Seahawks @ MetLife Stadium, NJ

Winner: Denver Broncos: 34 - Seattle Seahawks: 23

Reasoning: Regardless of how good the Seattle defense is, no team can truly match up against the weapons that the Denver Broncos possess. The Seahawks have the best chance of any team to shut down this Denver offense, but this game has to be won by Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch and the rest of the offense; and I don’t see the Hawks doing that.

              Let’s just look at the matchups for Seattle on defense. They have the best cornerback in the NFL in Richard Sherman, who actually will matchup quite well against Denver’s best weapon Demaryius Thomas – I’m thinking similarly to how Aqib Talib of the Patriots shut him down in the Patriots first meeting with Denver. So Seattle may win that one specific matchup, but there are plenty more people to throw to on Denver (I also believe that Demaryius will still muster up at least two big plays despite having Sherman on him for most of the night). Let’s look to another one of Peyton’s targets, Julius Thomas. J. Thomas will most likely be covered by a linebacker with Kam Chancellor over the top, which again merits a matchup victory for the Seahawks, however I see Jacob Tamme ending up being Peyton’s leading receiving-tightend in the Super Bowl. Tamme will be overlooked by the Seattle defense and as a result will have just a linebacker on him on a lot of plays, giving Peyton a good look all game long. Seattle also has to worry about Welker and Eric Decker, one of which will be covered by Byron Maxwell and the other will likely be taken by their third corner Perrish Cox, who was actually a Bronco in his rookie season in 2010. Earl Thomas will be roaming the field, as he has done all season, and I personally don’t think there is a free safety even close to his level right now, however he is only one player, and only can create one more double coverage. Because of all of these one on one matchups, I really don’t see how the talent on Denver won’t be able to get open for Peyton. And what if Seattle sends all their linebackers into coverage? Well Peyton just happens to be the game’s finest at identifying defenses and coverage schemes, and he will gladly audible to run a play with the revived Moreno in the backfield against a cover-4 look. There has also been a lot of hype surrounding Seattle’s amazing pass rush, which pressured opposing quarterback’s a league high 32%, however Denver has been exceptional in the postseason in not even allowing a sack on offense. I wouldn’t give the credit to Denver’s offensive line though; it’s really just great offensive scheme by Denver, a lot of quick throws and well-timed short routes can nip any pass rush in the bud.

              Now let’s look at Seattle’s offensive matchups against Denver. This postseason Russell Wilson has been an absolute dud. Through two games he has 318 yards, as many touchdowns as turnovers, and a pedestrian completion percentage of 58%. Granted he played two solid defenses and the offense is focused around the running game, but they are now going up against a very underrated Broncos defense which has put the clamps on their last two opponents. I noted in my post last week that the Broncos had a rush defense that allowed under 4.0 yards per carry in the regular season and that trend has continued thus far into the postseason. They shut down both the Chargers and the Patriots potent rushing attacks and Terrence Knighton aka “Pot Roast” has been the unsung hero of this Broncos defense, and really has made the absence of Von Miller forgotten. I feel like the Denver defense can somewhat neutralize Marshawn Lynch, although he has been a monster this postseason. Lynch has been the most valuable player in the postseason so far, as he has single handedly carried the Seattle Seahawks’ offense. However, if he gets shut down early and Denver can put up two quick scores (which is very plausible) then the Seahawks might panic and slowly abandon the run game. I also think that you can’t win a Super Bowl with receivers like Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin leading the way (unless you’re Tom Brady). It will also be interesting to see if Percy Harvin can have an impact on the game before breaking a fingernail in the second quarter and sitting out the rest of the game.

              Let’s also think about how Seattle will play on the road. Seattle may be one of the best home teams in pro football but they have had their struggles on the road through Russell Wilson’s career, having all but one of his career losses come on road turf. People keep chirping about Peyton playing poorly in cold weather, but I feel like Russell Wilson playing on the road has a bigger potential for a letdown. Side Note: If you are rooting for Seattle, hope for the worst weather possible, because bad weather could really alter the outcome of the game if it forces both teams to run the football, which would heavily benefit Seattle.

              Although I will be rooting for Seattle, I would only give them a 15% chance of winning due to the aforementioned factors.  I also believe Peyton has gotten over the hump of being a choke. Denver isn’t afraid to throw the ball with the lead and the game on the line. John Fox and Co. learned from last year’s early exit that they have to keep the ball in Peyton’s hands when they need a first down. And even if Peyton does choke and they only put up 20 points against Seattle’s defense, I just don’t see the Hawks being able to compete on offense.

              Peyton Manning will win his second ring in three attempts and become the first quarterback to win a Super Bowl with two different teams, while the Seahawks will return back to the hunt next season for their first. 

NFC Championship Recap

By: Jack Machulski

I have no idea where to start with this game.  First of all, it was my favorite football game of the year, and the second half may have been my favorite half of football I have ever watched.  This game had everything: big plays, huge hits, and one of the most exciting endings ever followed by the greatest post-game interview ever. 

                The biggest storyline after the game was obviously the brilliant final play and post-game interview by Richard Sherman.  However, that has turned the focus into Sherman V. Erin Andrews/Crabtree/Cranky old people and racists that think he is a “thug”, when the focus should be on Seahawks V. 49ers.

                The Seahawks had a nightmare of a start to this game.  After electing to receive, Russell Wilson was sacked and stripped on the first play of the game by Aldon Smith, giving the 49ers the ball inside the 20.  Russell Wilson is the second best QB in the league at extending plays with his feet and making throws downfield (Big Ben is the best) but sometimes the scrambling can get him in trouble.  On this particular play, he was holding the ball low around his waist, making it an easy target for Smith to swipe at.  Fortunately for Wilson, he has the league’s best defense behind him and the Hawks were able to get a stop on third down, holding the Niners to only a field goal.  (3-0 Niners)

                Things didn’t get better for the Seahawks as their offense went three and out on the next drive, and the teams exchanged punts for the rest of the first quarter.  There were some exciting plays such as Kasim Osgood downing a punt at the 1 yard line and Lamichael James getting absolutely blown up by Ricardo “Rocket” Lockette, but no scoring and after one quarter it was still 3-0 Niners. 

                The 49ers caught a break after James got lit up, he muffed the punt but all the Seahawks were going for the big hit, and SF was able to recover the football.  The SF offense looked like it was stalling but then Richard Sherman committed an unnecessary holding penalty on Crabtree, which gave the 49ers a crucial first down.  After that, the Hawks defense were victims of Kaepernick’s legs, who went into full “Turbo Ostrich” mode, scrambling for a 12 yard run for a first down then a 58 yarder down to the Hawks 10 yard line.  Frank Gore runs to the 1 yard line and after the first try was unsuccessful, Anthony Dixon was able to leap over the pile for the touchdown.  Things are not looking good for Seattle.  (10-0 Niners) 

                The Hawks desperately need to get something going on offense, a two score lead is tough to come back from against the great Niners defense but if they let it get any worse it could have proven fatal.  The offense had looked anemic so far, but they finally got a big play from Wilson.  This time, we saw the positive results of his long scrambles as he was able to extend the play and hit Doug Baldwin for a 51 yard gain and put Seattle in the redzone.  The offense wasn’t able to do anything else and they had to settle for a field goal, but at least they got on the board. (10-3 Niners)

                After the Seahawks score, the 49ers go 3 and out and the Seahawks put together a drive but turn it over on downs with 20 seconds left.  Going into the half its 10-3 SF and they also get ball to start the third quarter.  This game was definitely in San Francisco’s favor.

                Much like the Seahawks in the first half, the 49ers were unable to capitalize on receiving the ball to start the half and went three and out.  A terrible punt by Andy Lee gave the Seahawks the ball on the 40 yard line and in excellent position to score.

                On this drive, the Hawks went to their rock Marshawn Lynch, who picked up 12 yards on the first play of the drive and got the ball to the Niners 40.  Then on 3^rd and 1, Lynch busts open the 49ers defense for a 40 yard touchdown.  Skittles for almost everyone!!  (10-10 Tie)

                All the momentum seemed to be in favor of the 49ers, but Kaepernick responded by piecing together a beautiful drive.  Kaepernick made a beautiful pass to Michael Crabtree for 22 yards and had another scramble for 22 yards.  After getting a very friendly bounce on a fumble, Kaep threw a 26 yard dart to Anquan Boldin that was just out of the reach of Earl Thomas.  Touchdown San Francisco. (17-10 Niners)

                After taking every bit of momentum away with the great touchdown drive, the 49ers special teams gave it all back, allowing Doug Baldwin to return the kick 70 yards to their own 33 yard line.  But the 49ers defense was able to hold strong as they forced the Seahawks to kick a 40 yard field goal, which Hauschka nails.  (17-13 Niners)

                The 49ers go three and out, as Gore is stopped for no gain, Chancellor blows up Vernon Davis, and Kaepernick overthrows Crabtree.  Seattle commits a running into the kicker penalty on the punt which the forever annoying and douchey “rules analyst” Mike Pereira told us should have given the 49ers the first down.  It looked like the punter landed on him on purpose so I’m glad that the refs didn’t listen to Mike. 

                After getting the ball back, the Seahawks are driving it down the field with a steady dose of short passes and Lynch runs.  At 2^nd and 6 at the 35 yard line, bad scrambling Russell Wilson strikes again as he runs all the way back to the 50 then commits an intentional grounding (which caused John Harbaugh to explore his musical talents while looking for the call), making it 3^rd and 22 .  So far Russell has had a 51 yard pass but a huge intentional grounding penalty and strip sack while scrambling, bad scrambling Russell 2, good scrambling Russell 1.  However, Wilson makes up for it.  On 3^rd and 22 he gets a nice dump pass to Zach Miller to make it a manageable 4^th and 7.  Then Pete Carrol makes an incredibly ballsy playcall, sending all 3 receivers deep to the endzone.  Russell hooks up with Jermaine Kearse for a 35 yard touchdown.  Wow, just wow. (20-17 Seattle)

                Kaepernick leads his offense back out onto the field but this time he is trailing for the first time in the game.  After converting a third down to Boldin, the Niners get it to third and 1, which looks like it will be easily picked up with a short run.  However, a delay of game penalty makes it 3^rd and 6 and forced the Niners to throw.  On the play, Cliff Avril beats his man, and Kaep is rolling out to his left, holding the ball with only one hand, and Avril is able to strip it out.  Michael Bennet scoops it and runs to the 6 yard line, huge play for the Seahawks and it looked like they were going to put away the game. 

                The Seahawks get a false start penalty which made it second and goal from the 9, and after Wilson overthrows Golden Tate it brought up third and goal from the 9.  This turned out to be one of the most interesting plays of the game.  Russell Wilson throws it to Jermaine Kearse, who makes the catch, but Navorro Bowman comes up to make the tackle and wrestles it away from him, Eric Reid hits Kearse but pins Bowman’s leg underneath, which completely tears up his knee (click at your own risk).  It was clearly either a catch and forced fumble, or an incompletion and interception because the ball didn’t touch the ground, but it was called a catch and runner down on the field and for some stupid reason it was not a reviewable play, seriously NFL please fix this.  I really wish this was an INT because Bowman made an amazing play while getting his knee torn apart, he is a true warrior.  Sucks to see one of the best linebackers in the NFL go down making such a great play, but for it not to count because of a dumb rule.  However, the football gods/spirit of Navorro Bowman restore balance to the football universe, as Pete Carrol stupidly decides to go for it on fourth down.  Lynch and Wilson mess up the exchange and fumble it, giving the 49ers the ball. 

                Since the fumble bounced a long way, the Niners actually end up with the ball on the 15 yard line.  Kendall Hunter runs through a few tackles and picks up 11 on the first play and it looks like the 49ers might put together a drive.  However, on the very next play,Kaepernick throws a terrible interception right to Kam Chancellor.  Just a horrible decision by Kaepernick and it was his second straight turnover.

                Wilson has the ball at the 40 for the drive, he gets them to around the 30 but then offensive pass interference brings them to 3^rd and 18.  Wilson is able to get the ball to the 29 for a manageable 47 yard field goal, which Hauschka nails. (23-17 Seattle)

                The Seahawks give the ball back to the 49ers with the dreaded 6 point lead and 3:37 left on the clock.  The first thing I noticed about the 49ers on this drive is that they played with 0 urgency, letting the play clock run all the way down to one second before snapping the ball, which cost them precious time.  On third and 2, the Niners ran a slant route to Crabtree, who made a “business decision” and decided to let the pass go and avoid the huge incoming hit from Kam Chancellor.  Luckily, Kaepernick was able to make a play on 4^th and 2, rolling out to his left and hitting Frank Gore for a huge first down.  Kaep continues to drive the ball and gets into Seahawks territory with 1:19 left to play after hitting Boldin for a 4 yard gain bringing up 3^rd and 2.  On third and 2 he hits Crabtree on a play that looked very similar to the one he threw an interception on earlier, it picks up 15 yards and the Niners are at the thirty.  Next play is an 11 yard pass to Vernon Davis which moves them only 17 yards away from the endzone and a birth to Super Bowl XLVIII.  However there is only 30 seconds left and Kaepernick decides to take a shot at the endzone, and he threw just about a perfect pass to Crabtree in the corner.  The only mistake Kaepernick made was challenging Richard Sherman, the best cornerback in the league, who contorted his body and tipped the ball and the super bowl dreams of the Niners into the arms of Malcolm Smith. Game Over. Seahawks win.  Richard Sherman does it again. 

               

               

                 

                

NFC Championship Pick

By: Jack Machulski

Record: 0-0

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks:

Why San Francisco will win: San Francisco comes into this game with more momentum than any team in the playoffs, having won the last two games on the road and they are playing their best football of the year. The biggest strength of the 49ers has been the front 7, featuring 3 pro bowl linebackers and 2 great pass rushers in Justin Smith and Aldon Smith. They are going to need this front 7 to be on their game Sunday as they will face off against one of the league’s best running backs in Marshawn Lynch. Their running defense is ranked 9th in yards per carry, allowing an average of 3.9 yards every rushing attempt. If they can hold Lynch to 3 yards per carry they will have a huge advantage as they will force Russell Wilson to have to create more plays. However, Russell Wilson is no Brandon Weeden, and stopping him is not a guarantee, even though he has been struggling mightily as of late. The 49ers have a solid pass defense, ranked 9th by Football Outsiders in DVOA, and have held opposing QB’s to the fourth lowest passer rating in the league. The secondary doesn’t really have a shutdown cornerback, especially with Carlos Rogers hobbled by a hamstring injury. The good news for the 49ers is that the Seahawks don’t really have a standout wide receiver that needs to be shut down. I feel like the San Francisco defense will have no problem getting stops against the Seattle offense.

The real problem for the 49ers will be scoring on Seattle’s vaunted defense which is one of, if not the best in the NFL. The Niners have to look to get Frank Gore going as they really don’t want to have to rely on the passing game against the Seahawks secondary. The Seahawks are ranked #1 in yards allowed per pass, pass DVOA, interceptions, and basically every metric you could use to measure pass defense but the Niners do have hope. Their receiving core is probably the best on any team not named Denver, with Crabtree, Boldin, and Vernon Davis. Anquan Boldin is known for having huge games in the playoffs and he has been huge for this Niners team. The Seahawks line backing crew is not nearly as good as its secondary so they could run into problems covering Vernon Davis as well. If the receivers can make a few plays early, Earl Thomas will be asked to give help over the top, opening up the middle of the field for Davis. Ultimately, passing on this Seattle defense is not easy and for the 49ers to win they will have to establish the run on offense and stop the Seahawks from doing the same. If this game is kept extremely close, I like San Francisco’s chances.

Why Seattle will win: Obviously, the Seahawks get a pretty sizeable advantage with this game being played in Seattle where they are 8-1 and have the loudest stadium in the NFL. The Seahawks are solid at almost every single position and have probably been the NFL’s most consistent team over the course of the season. For Seattle to win they have to be able to stop Frank Gore. Gore may not be electric like Lesean McCoy or as exciting as their own running back Marshawn Lynch, but he is still key to the Niners offense. If they can force Kaepernick to beat them through the air it is pretty much game over for the Niners. The Seahawks also lead the league in turnover margin, forcing 28 (!!!) interceptions this year. I could definitely see them forcing some turnovers from the young Kaepernick, and most of the time whoever wins the turnover battle wins the game. A matchup to watch will be Richard Sherman on Anquan Boldin which is poised to be incredibly fun. Sherman is the best Cornerback in the league so he will probably be able to shut down whatever receiver he matches up against. Side note: Both Boldin and Sherman are notorious trash talkers and known for mixing it up with whoever they are lined up against. The thought of the NFL putting this on Mic’d up has me giddy just thinking about it.

Russell Wilson is a very exciting quarterback with great mobility, but as the season has worn on he has been mediocre as a passer. Wilson had only (106) yards against the Saints defense in the divisional round and except for one great throw down the sideline to Doug Baldwin, he didn’t make that many good throws either. The Seahawks biggest weakness has been the offensive line and if Russell is running for his life the entire game they probably won’t be able to move the ball through the air. If they don’t establish the run game, the talented pass rushers on the Niners will be able to pin their ears back and rush at Wilson every snap. If Lynch gets going the pass rushers will start to focus on him which opens up the play action passing game and will help keep Wilson from getting sacked. If they can do this, they will be able to put up some points on the 49ers defense.

Final Verdict: These teams are so close it is almost impossible to predict a winner, but I’m going to give a slight edge to the Seahawks and their 12th man. This game will feature both running backs very heavily and I think Marshawn Lynch will play better than Frank Gore. If Seattle can get a two score lead I think they will be able to pull it out because I don’t trust Kaepernick to beat the Seahawks with the pass and catch up.

Final Score: Seattle 24 San Francisco 17

Bold Prediction: Richard Sherman pick 6.

Conference Championship

By: Josh Fyffe
Record: 4-4
Last Week: 1-3

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks

Winner: San Francisco

Reasoning: I picked against the 49ers the last two weeks due to my lack of confidence in Colin Kaepernick, and he hasn’t really proved me wrong. He throws a large majority of passes off target and leaves a lot of plays on the field. However, I have come to realize that as long as he doesn’t implode, the 49ers are too good at every other position to compete in any game with any team. Whether Kaepernick was on or off target, his wide receivers were bailing out the offense with some incredible catches and definitely gave Kaep a better stat line than he deserved. The game against the Panthers was closer than most people would expect given the final score. Both teams played a close contest; the difference was what each team did inside the three yard line. The Panthers were arguably the best short yardage team in football this year, and with seven attempts inside the three yard line of the 49ers, they came away with only three points. Both stands were quite impressive by that quality front seven that the 49ers boast. This win also gives 49ers their third road win against a quality opponent (Cardinals, Packers, and now Panthers), so I like their momentum being carried into this game, despite playing against the most famous crowd in football.

              These teams are very equal in my opinion. They have the top 1 and 2 defenses in terms of talent and are very well coached as units. The 49ers have a better front seven than Seattle, having three pro bowl linebackers, and two pro bowl caliber linemen (Justin Smith and Aldon Smith). However, the Hawks match the Niners for talent in the front seven with their defensive backs. Seattle has the best shutdown corner in the league in Richard Sherman and the best safety in pro football in Earl Thomas. They also have Kam Chancellor who matches up very well one-on-one with opposing tight ends given his large size at the safety position. The Seahawks definitely have the weapons to shut down this 49er offense, however I believe the likely hood of Seattle’s offense being shut down is greater.

              As I stated earlier, the 49ers held the best short yardage run team in football (Carolina) to three points on seven chances inside the three yard line. Although I was very impressed with how well he played last week, I believe this talented front seven can shut down Beast Mode to a reasonable level, maybe 95 yards on 25+ carries. And with Lynch not being able to get it going on the ground, we will see another dud performance by Russell Wilson as he will extend his bad game streak against quality level defenses. Last week the offense was incapable of closing the game out when they had at least two chances to do so. On the third attempt they were finally able to convert and put the game virtually away, but it was mainly due to their dominance on defense.

              Last week we also saw a very dominant offensive line for San Francisco. The Panthers have a very talented front seven as well, and the 49ers O-line was able to get a lot of penetration on run plays. If they can repeat that against another talented front seven in Seattle, this game will be won handedly.

              I would lastly like to point out that I think the quarterbacks of these teams are equally as bad and receive way to much credit for their team’s success. Kaepernick only will appear better because of the talent he has catching the ball. I am more of a fan of Wilson though, and despite picking against Seattle I will be definitely rooting for them this Sunday.

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos

Winner: Denver Broncos

Reasoning: As a diehard New England fan this is going to painstaking to write, but the Broncos are too talented on offense and matchup very well against the Patriots for the Pats to steal this one on the road. Last week we witnessed Denver’s defense play amazing football, really shutting down the chargers game plan of running the football. As of late what has been New England’s game plan? Running the football. Denver’s defense ranked 8^th against the run this season in terms of yards allowed per game (but those numbers are a bit inflated as 50% of the teams didn’t run the ball in the second half to try to catch up to Denver’s double digit lead). However, what is not inflated is their average yard per carry allowed, which is 3.9. If they can hold Blount to under four yards per carry, that alone will be a huge contribution to a likely victory for Denver. The easiest way to beat Denver is to control the clock, because although their weakness is pass defense, you aren’t going to win a shootout against a team with Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Julius Thomas, and Eric Decker.

The Patriots defense on the other hand was gashed by the run all season, allowing almost 5 yards per carry and was the third worst rushing defense in the entire league. So not only can the Broncos succeed because of their excellence in the passing game, but they also have a large advantage on the ground too, as they do have a decent offensive line and a 1000 yard rusher in Moreno.

              For the Patriots to win, they have to get as lucky as they were in these teams’ first meeting and be able to create four turnovers and maybe be a little luckier and don’t fumble the football on the first three drives.  This is the only way they can match Manning in a shootout. My bet is the Broncos will be heavily playing the run, so if Brady can come out slinging it, I think it will give the Patriots a much better chance to win, because in the second half the Broncos will have to defend the pass more and big lanes will open up thanks to the talented run-blocking offensive line and Legarette Blount.

              For the Broncos to win, they just have to take care of the football and air it out all game long. The Patriots pass defense may be as overrated as they come and there are really big holes in coverage every game. The Broncos have so much talent that can get open and will have playmakers running wide all day long. As long as Peyton doesn’t choke or they don’t fumble any punts, kickoffs, or runs – I suspect the Broncos will take the home win and head on to the Super Bowl.

              However, if I were to put a percentage on it, I would say the Broncos only have 60% chance of winning, which may be lower than my post implied.

Divisional Round

(Josh Fyffe) My Record:
Last Week (3-1), Overall (3-1)

New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks:

Winner: New Orleans Saints
Reasoning: This was by far my toughest pick of the week to make, and as much as I really want to pick Seattle, I just can’t. The illusion of the unbeatable 12^th man was shattered in week 16 by Arizona and ever since I haven’t viewed Seattle in the same way. I really think Rob Ryan coaches another great defensive game, as he did an incredible job against offensive mastermind Chip Kelly’s Eagles, who boasted the 2^nd best offense in the NFL. The Saints defense held the Eagles (who lead the NFL in rushing) to 80 rushing yards on 22 attempts, averaging under 4 yards a carry. I definitely view LeSean McCoy above Marshawn Lynch, and I believe that the Saints can shut down the run again on the road. The defense also held second year phenom Nick Foles to under 200 yards passing and sacked him a handful of times. The Saints have two great edge pass rushers in Cameron Jordan and Junior Gallete, as they were the only two teammates in the entire NFL to have over 12 sacks each in the regular season. Those two edge rushers will be a huge advantage against the Seahawks, as notable running pro-bowl quarterback Russell Wilson will need to be contained if the Saints want to win this game. Wilson though has struggled as of late in the season, having a TD to interception ratio of 3-3 in three game streak in December as well as not throwing for more than 206 yards in any of those games.

              The main reason I am taking the Saints in this game is because I believe that the Saints offense is far better than the Seattle offense, even with the now healthy Percy Harvin. This will definitely be a defensive game and barring multiple bad turnovers by the Saints, I really feel that Drew Brees and the Saints offense can crack the incredible and highly rated defense of the Seattle Seahawks more than the Seahawks can crack the Saints well coached defense. I also feel like Mark Ingram will have another big game as he is finally starting to develop into the player a lot of people thought he would be (see Marshawn Lynch’s career). Ingram will have to sport a big day on the ground (well big in terms of the Seattle defense, so like 90 yards or more on 20 touches) to give Brees some help against the best secondary in the NFL. So really this pick is a result of my lack of confidence in the Seattle offense against quality level opponents.

Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots:

Winner: New England Patriots

Reasoning: That was an incredible comeback by the Indianapolis Colts and they exhibited incredible mental toughness, never counting themselves out of the game and that can be the most important intangibles to have on an NFL team. However, I believe the momentum doesn’t even carry over to the next week for Colts, as I’m sure Bill Belichick will not make the same terrible coaching mistakes that Kansas City did.

              When you look at the Colts key players on offense, outside of the excellent second year quarterback Andrew Luck, they really only have two upper tier players; TY Hilton and Coby Fleener. The Colts were able to make their comeback last week because somehow the Chiefs didn’t game plan for TY Hilton, which is really the only player you have to eliminate on this offense to make them vulnerable. The Patriots have already started practicing with the game plan of eliminating TY, and although I myself am very high on the young wide out, when the Patriots want to take someone out of a game, they do it very well. If the Patriots match Alfonzo Dennard (who is their fastest cornerback) up on Hilton, with safety help, look for Aqib Talib to man up against Fleener. Talib had a down second half of the season due to a lingering hip problem, but with the bye week to heal, look for him to be back near 100%.  When Talib was healthy this year, he held out arguably the best tightend in football, Jimmy Graham, catchless throughout the game, and actually forced an interception. With both of Luck’s top two targets well game-planned for, I predict it will be hard for him to get a good rhythm in this game.

              The achilles heel of this New England Patriot defense this year has been the run game, and losing Brandon Spikes this last week to a knee injury hurts them even more. Look for Dane Fletcher (number 52) to step up and have a nice game in his place. Fletcher has always impressed me when he has gotten his opportunities to play for the Patriots and would have been a possible starter on this team a year ago if he hadn’t been placed on injured reserve during the end of preseason. He is a run blitzer, so look for him to making a lot of plays that Brandon Spikes would usually account for. However, the Colts haven’t exactly impressed this year with their backfield, ranking 20^th this year in rush yards per game. Donald Brown will really have to step up and show that he can be a quality starter in this league if the Colts want to have a legitimate shot of winning this ball game.

              Another reason why I believe the Patriots will win; the Indianapolis defense did have a good season defending the pass, ranking 13^th in total pass yards allowed, however they were bitten by the injury bug in the last three games, having three cornerbacks deal with injuries, including their top CB Vontae Davis, who has been dealing with a groin problem. These injuries were evident last week, as Alex Smith looked like a top QB, torching the Colts for 363 yards, 4 TDs and no interceptions (however he did fumble). The Patriots though, can run the ball better now than any other Brady team in recent memory, so the balance in their offensive attack can make it hard for the Colts to exactly game-plan as to what the Patriots’ offensive strategy will be (aside from being balanced). The Colts only major impact defensive player would be Robert Mathis, who led the NFL in sacks, so he can definitely be an x-factor in this game. Look for a lot of Patriot running backs coming out of the backfield to assist offensive linemen in pass protection by chipping Mathis throughout the game.

              Despite the heavy advantage I appear to be giving New England, I still expect a close game, as the NFL playoffs have not disappointed this season and you never know how many mistakes or uncharacteristic plays each team makes, but I still like New England undoubtedly.

San Francisco 49ers @ Carolina Panthers:

Winner: Carolina Panthers
Reasoning: These two teams are very similarly built, flaunting excellent defenses with some of the game’s best line backers (Navarro Bowman and Patrick Willis from the Niners, and Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis for the Panthers) as well as offenses based around the running game. However, this game will evidently come down to who can execute in the passing game, as I believe all of the aforementioned linebackers will be able minimalize the effectiveness of their opponents run game, as both defenses have been able to do all season long. The reason why I take the Panthers over the 49ers, is simply on the merit that I believe Cam Newton is a more polished passer than 49ers’ quarterback, Colin Kaepernick. Newton (3379 yards, 24 TDs, 13 Ints, and a 61.7% completion percentage) posted a better season than Kaepernick (3197 yards, 21 TDs, 8 Ints, and a 58.4% completion percentage), and Kaepernick had better offensive weapons (Vernon Davis, Anquan Boldin, and pro-bowl running back Frank Gore compared to Deangelo Williams, Steve Smith and Greg Olsen). Kaepernick showed last week against the Packers that he can’t win a game with his arm, while Cam has put together multiple game winning drives this year strictly by passing. However, I would like to point out that in my opinion, Kaepernick is the best runner at quarterback averaging 5.7 yards per carry this season on nearly 100 attempts, and won last week’s playoff game based off his running ability. I don’t think we see that happen this week though, as he posted his worst rushing day of the season (only 16 yards) against Carolina earlier this year. I don’t think  Cam will be able to run the ball effectively either, outside of short yardage situations, as San Francisco’s well coached and talented defense will be contain him throughout the game.

However, despite the lack of offensive weapons for Carolina, I have them beating the 49ers in an equally matched contest, because the game will come down too which quarterback can be the most accurate on the big stage. I will gladly take Cam (and 20 other quarterbacks for that matter) over Colin Kaepernick in that matchup. Side note: I would like to state that I think both of these quarterbacks are given way too much praise for their team’s success, and that both quarterbacks would post .500 records if they were on teams that didn’t have top 5 defenses.

San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos:

Winner: San Diego Chargers

Reasoning: Again, I am taking the Chargers on the road to win another unlikely game. I was a lot more confident in their winning probability last week over the Bengals though because Andy Dalton is Andy Dalton. Peyton Manning obviously won’t make the same type of mistakes that Dalton made last week, however the offense itself could, and that’s why I am picking the Chargers. To further explain; in an interview with John Elway on NFL insiders, Elway stated that what the Chargers did right in both their meetings (as they held Denver to under 30 points both times, which only one other team was able to do all season) against Denver was limit the time of possession that Denver had the ball. The Chargers actually lead the league in time of possession, a factor that can hurt a lot of pass heavy teams in the NFL, as it can limit the number of scoring chances per game. Now, in the interview Elway said that is something Denver is going to try to change. This is completely an assumption I am making on the basis of his comments, but I believe Denver will do the one thing it shouldn’t do, and rely a decent amount on the run game. If Denver doesn’t put the ball into Manning’s hands at least 40 times to drop back and pass, that is a huge mistake by the offensive coordinators on Denver (unless they roar out to a large lead, and then they should play the clock in the 4^th quarter). Manning, despite being a textbook choker, really can’t screw up this year with all of the weapons around him, unless the offensive game-plan is taken out of his hands to counteract the San Diego game plan of controlling the clock. If the Broncos do end up running it more than they usually do and completely over-think the game, then they are shooting themselves in the foot by not using there 5 best healthy players (Manning, D. Thomas, J. Thomas, Welker, and Decker).

              Another reason why I think San Diego gets the upset; look at the other side of the ball in Denver. Despite having by far the best offensive attack in the league, they have one of the worst 5 defenses in football, and they just lost their best defensive player, Von Miller, for the season two games ago. The Chargers did not exactly have a wonderful offensive outing against the Bengals, but did manage to hang 27 on a very talented and top ten statistical defense. I really don’t see Denver’s defense stopping San Diego often, so if the Broncos decide to take the ball of Manning’s hands and put it into Moreno’s it really limits their scoring ability. I see the Chargers winning, and continuing their improbable run, as Manning yet again suffers his routine one-and-done. Side note: Aside from New England, Manning has more losses to the Chargers than any other football team with 6 career losses in 14 meetings (Manning has 12 career losses to New England).