Record: 5-5
Last Week: 1-1
Denver Broncos vs Seattle Seahawks @ MetLife Stadium, NJ
Winner: Denver Broncos: 34 - Seattle Seahawks: 23
Reasoning: Regardless of how good the Seattle defense is, no team can
truly match up against the weapons that the Denver Broncos possess. The
Seahawks have the best chance of any team to shut down this Denver offense, but
this game has to be won by Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch and the rest of the offense;
and I don’t see the Hawks doing that.
Let’s just look at
the matchups for Seattle on defense. They have the best cornerback in the NFL
in Richard Sherman, who actually will matchup quite well against Denver’s best
weapon Demaryius Thomas – I’m thinking similarly to how Aqib Talib of the
Patriots shut him down in the Patriots first meeting with Denver. So Seattle
may win that one specific matchup, but there are plenty more people to throw to
on Denver (I also believe that Demaryius will still muster up at least two big
plays despite having Sherman on him for most of the night). Let’s look to
another one of Peyton’s targets, Julius Thomas. J. Thomas will most likely be
covered by a linebacker with Kam Chancellor over the top, which again merits a
matchup victory for the Seahawks, however I see Jacob Tamme ending up being
Peyton’s leading receiving-tightend in the Super Bowl. Tamme will be overlooked
by the Seattle defense and as a result will have just a linebacker on him on a
lot of plays, giving Peyton a good look all game long. Seattle also has to
worry about Welker and Eric Decker, one of which will be covered by Byron
Maxwell and the other will likely be taken by their third corner Perrish Cox,
who was actually a Bronco in his rookie season in 2010. Earl Thomas will be
roaming the field, as he has done all season, and I personally don’t think
there is a free safety even close to his level right now, however he is only
one player, and only can create one more double coverage. Because of all of
these one on one matchups, I really don’t see how the talent on Denver won’t be
able to get open for Peyton. And what if Seattle sends all their linebackers
into coverage? Well Peyton just happens to be the game’s finest at identifying
defenses and coverage schemes, and he will gladly audible to run a play with
the revived Moreno in the backfield against a cover-4 look. There has also been
a lot of hype surrounding Seattle’s amazing pass rush, which pressured opposing
quarterback’s a league high 32%, however Denver has been exceptional in the postseason
in not even allowing a sack on offense. I wouldn’t give the credit to Denver’s offensive
line though; it’s really just great offensive scheme by Denver, a lot of quick
throws and well-timed short routes can nip any pass rush in the bud.
Now let’s look at
Seattle’s offensive matchups against Denver. This postseason Russell Wilson has
been an absolute dud. Through two games he has 318 yards, as many touchdowns as
turnovers, and a pedestrian completion percentage of 58%. Granted he played two
solid defenses and the offense is focused around the running game, but they are
now going up against a very underrated Broncos defense which has put the clamps
on their last two opponents. I noted in my post last week that the Broncos had
a rush defense that allowed under 4.0 yards per carry in the regular season and
that trend has continued thus far into the postseason. They shut down both the
Chargers and the Patriots potent rushing attacks and Terrence Knighton aka “Pot
Roast” has been the unsung hero of this Broncos defense, and really has made
the absence of Von Miller forgotten. I feel like the Denver defense can
somewhat neutralize Marshawn Lynch, although he has been a monster this postseason.
Lynch has been the most valuable player in the postseason so far, as he has
single handedly carried the Seattle Seahawks’ offense. However, if he gets shut
down early and Denver can put up two quick scores (which is very plausible)
then the Seahawks might panic and slowly abandon the run game. I also think
that you can’t win a Super Bowl with receivers like Golden Tate and Doug
Baldwin leading the way (unless you’re Tom Brady). It will also be interesting
to see if Percy Harvin can have an impact on the game before breaking a fingernail
in the second quarter and sitting out the rest of the game.
Let’s also think
about how Seattle will play on the road. Seattle may be one of the best home
teams in pro football but they have had their struggles on the road through
Russell Wilson’s career, having all but one of his career losses come on road
turf. People keep chirping about Peyton playing poorly in cold weather, but I feel
like Russell Wilson playing on the road has a bigger potential for a letdown. Side Note: If you are rooting for
Seattle, hope for the worst weather possible, because bad weather could really
alter the outcome of the game if it forces both teams to run the football,
which would heavily benefit Seattle.
Although I will be
rooting for Seattle, I would only give them a 15% chance of winning due to the
aforementioned factors. I also believe
Peyton has gotten over the hump of being a choke. Denver isn’t afraid to throw
the ball with the lead and the game on the line. John Fox and Co. learned from
last year’s early exit that they have to keep the ball in Peyton’s hands when
they need a first down. And even if Peyton does choke and they only put up 20
points against Seattle’s defense, I just don’t see the Hawks being able to
compete on offense.
Peyton Manning will
win his second ring in three attempts and become the first quarterback to win a
Super Bowl with two different teams, while the Seahawks will return back to the
hunt next season for their first.
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