Week 13 Game Picks

Josh’s Record: (124-52) – Last Week (14-1)

Jack’s Record (111-65) – Last Week (12-3)

Chicago Bears (5-6) @ Detroit Lions (7-4) at 12:30 PM on Thanksgiving

Josh’s Pick: Lions

Despite the Lions recent losses against the Cardinals and the Patriots, this team is still loaded with talent and is eager to get back onto the field after bad showings in both matchups. The Lions should be able to shut down the Bears run game and make Matt Forte more of a wide receiver a majority of the game, however he is still equally dangerous as a receiving threat. I expect a bounce back game from the Lions offense against a Chicago defense that seems to crumble against quality offenses, as they were the only team in NFL history to give up back to back 50 point games (to the Patriots and the Packers). I am counting on a big day from either Megatron or Golden Tate to lift Detroit over the inconsistent Bears on Turkey Day.

Jack’s Pick: Lions

In the morning game on turkey day, the Detroit Lions will be taking on the Bears at home to try and keep afloat in the NFC playoff race. The lions got completely manhandled on the road against the Patriots last week but I'm not going to hold it against them as the Pats are the hottest team in football right now and are essentially unbeatable at home this season. Detroits defense should be looking to bounce back after giving up 34 points to the Pats last week. They will need to because the Detroit offense has not been good this season, scoring around 17 points per game on the year. I think the Lions win but I struggle to predict how the Lions will do in the late part of the year because this is generally when they collapse. 

Philadelphia Eagles (8-3) @ Dallas Cowboys (8-3) at 4:25 PM on Thanksgiving

Josh’s Pick: Cowboys

I would reconsider this pick if Nick Foles was playing, but the way the Eagles defense has played the last two weeks (getting shredded by Aaron Rodger, which is somewhat acceptable, but then giving up 345 yards and two TDs to Zach Mettenberger of the Titans) they aren’t going to be able to contain Dez Bryant, Terrance Williams and Jason Witten all game long. And if the Eagles play in nickel and dime formations, the Cowboys will either run it up their gut with Murray or Romo will have all day to drop back and pass like he did in that final drive against the Giants last week. The Cowboys are not perfect by any matter either and their defense has a lot of holes, that could be hurt by both Maclin receiving or Shady running the ball. Another reason why I leaned toward the Cowboys is because of the amount of turnovers Mark Sanchez is producing, almost one for every TD pass he has thrown, and any turnovers in game as tightly competitive as this one could be the difference maker. This game will tell us a lot about both teams and where they match up against each other.

Jack’s Pick: Eagles

The afternoon game this week between the Eagles and Boys is going to be a great one as they battle it out for first place in the division at Jerry's World. I'm picking the Eagles because of what I saw when the Cowboys played the Giants, they allowed the Giants offense to drive down the field against them and got almost 0 pressure on Eli Manning. They will be facing an infinitely better offensive line in the Eagles this week and if Mark Sanchez isn't getting pressured he will have success against the secondary of the Cowboys. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles line vs. the Cowboys line should be an incredible matchup as the Eagles D-Line is second in the league in sacks and the Cowboys line is one of the best in the league. In the Giants game, the Giants like played well up until the final few drives where they just got so tired they couldn't get pressure. The Eagles are always rotating linemen and have about 9 different offensive lineman so they can keep their guys fresh, and I think the Eagles will ultimately win the battle up front on both sides of the ball and pick up the victory.

Seattle Seahawks (7-4) @ San Francisco 49ers (7-4) at 8:30 PM on Thanksgiving

Josh’s Pick: Seahawks

Another great divisional matchup to end a great holiday. I am taking the Seahawks because I believe since their midseason slump ended and they have had players come back from injury (Chancellor, Wagner and Unger) this team has regained top tier strength. San Francisco really hasn’t impressed me at all this season, as Kaepernick continues to be arrant and lacking as a passer on a majority of his throws. Last week they struggled to put away the woeful Redskins at home, and in their previous home game they fumbled on the goal line to lose to the Rams. San Fran has also had some O-Line problems against good defensive pressure, as has Seattle, so look for both QBs to be running around like a chicken with their head cut-off. In the end I am picking Seattle because they perform way more consistently when healthy, despite having some lack luster wide receivers.  

Jack’s Pick: Seahawks

I'm taking the Seahawks on the road which is a pick I have almost zero confidence in. I don't trust the Seahawks to win on the road but I have 0 trust in the 49ers to win against good teams even at home. The Seahawks secondary has been coming on strong recently and I think they will be able to stop Kaepernick and force him to turn the ball over, something he does regularly. If the Seahawks can get Marshawn Lynch going then they won't have to attack down the field with Wilson and he can throw short passes and run the ball all day long. 

                                                                                                                                                

Sunday Game Picks

Washington Redskins (3-8) @ Indianapolis Colts (7-4) at 1PM on Sunday

Josh’s Pick: Colts

With Colt McCoy getting plugged in as the starter I don’t see the Redskins being able to put up the points to compete with Andrew Luck and the Colt’s top tier offense. Granted, I don’t think RG3 could do that either. The Redskins defense also won’t be able to hold the Colts to under 24, which I believe the Redskins would have to do if they wanted to win this game. Only way I see the Redskins coming out with a win is if they ride Alfred Morris like the Patriots road Jonas Gray two weeks ago when they played Indianapolis at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Jack’s pick: Colts 

Three years ago we would have been ecstatic about this battle of the future at Quarterback in RGIII and Andrew Luck.  However, this will now be a battle between Luck and Colt McCoy as the RGIII has fallen out of favor with Jay Gruden and the coaching staff of the Redskins.  Redskins will be tasked with shutting down the number one passing offense in the league with Luck and receivers Reggie Wayne and TY Hilton, I don’t think the defense of the Redskins will be able to stop luck and I don’t trust Colt McCoy to win a shootout on the road.  

Tennessee Titans (2-9) @ Houston Texans (5-6) at 1PM on Sunday

Josh’s Pick: Texans

Despite Ryan Mallet being out for the season and showing loads of promise in his first two games, I still believe Houston gets it done at home. Tennessee doesn’t have the ground game to expose Houston on the ground and when it comes down to it I trust Houston’s defense more than I trust Tennessee’s defense. Look for Houston to run the ball a lot and try to have a similar game-plan that the Steelers and Eagles employed when facing when of the more devout of star talent teams in the league.

Jack’s pick: Texans

This matchup features two teams in the AFC South whose seasons are essentially over, the Titans at 2-9 are in the midst of a 5 game losing streak and the Texans are coming off a loss to the Bengals and just lost QB Ryan Mallet to a torn pec for the rest of the season.  In my opinion the difference in play between Fitzpatrick and Mallet is not significant enough that there will be a big drop off in the performance of the offense.  The Titans are frisky but I don’t see them being good enough to beat the Texans.  

Cleveland Browns (7-4) @ Buffalo Bills (6-5) at 1PM on Sunday

Josh’s Pick: Bills

My main reason for taking this pick is a few reasons; the first being that even in Josh Gordon’s return, Hoyer managed to throw three interceptions and really banked on terrible clock management by the Falcons and solid play from the Browns defense to pull out the comeback win; and second is that this club lost Tayshaun Gipson for the season who had playing phenomenal at the safety position (leading the NFL in interceptions with 6). Although I don’t think Hoyer will throw three interceptions, I think the Cleveland running back committee will be shut down by the Bills fierce defensive line, and the injuries on the Browns offensive line are highlighted by Buffalo’s pass rush. I see some confusion coming from the Browns secondary and one or two blown coverages that could lead to big plays from Sammy Watkins or another one of the Bills many unsung weapons. I also think the Bills will be fired up to be playing in Ralph Wilson stadium again after the blizzard incident a week ago.

Jack’s pick: Bills 

This game is tough to pick but I think the Bills defensive line will be too much for the Browns injury depleted offensive line to handle.  The Bills line is going to be able to get pressure on Brian Hoyer who is coming off a horrible game where he threw 3 picks against Atlanta who has the worst passing defense in the league.  Although Josh Gordon played well in his debut against the Falcons I don’t think he will be enough of a difference maker to neutralize the advantage that the Bills have on the defensive line.  

San Diego Chargers (7-4) @ Baltimore Ravens (7-4) at 1PM on Sunday

Josh’s Pick: Ravens

The Chargers have really struggled on the road against quality level opponents this season and are (1-3) against opponents over .500 (the one win coming against the Bills). In their last two road games, the Chargers have been outscored 72-21 and have looked like a shadow of their true offensive and defensive potential. Barring a great play on the goal line and a terrible bailout call by the Refs on a punt return, they should have lost last week to the Rams as well. The Ravens have played well at home and are coming off a great offensive performance

Jacks pick: Ravens 

Chargers started out as one of the best teams in football but have come crashing down to earth, especially in their last 4 games, getting destroyed twice on the road and barely beating Oakland and St. Louis at home.  Baltimore is coming off a good win in the Superdome and hasn’t lost at home this year since week 1 against the Bengals.  I think Joe Flacco and the Ravens offense will be able to have success against the Chargers defense and lead them to a home win.

New York Giants (3-8) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-10) at 1PM on Sunday

Josh’s Pick: Giants

If it wasn’t for Bortles, I would be taking the Jags. Both Eli and Blake have struggled with their interceptions this season, Bortles having the most interceptions in the league and a NFL low QBR to accompany it (despite not even playing the whole the season). Blake’s inconsistency will counteract the Giants struggles against what is actually a very formidable Jaguars defense. However, I don’t see anyone on the Jags defense that will be able to eliminate Odell Beckham Jr. from going off and making his presence felt like he did last week and has done a majority of the season. My biggest worry with taking the G-men is that they will not be able to stop Denard Robinson as their rush defense has been suspect a majority of the season.

Jack’s pick: Giants 

Giants are going on the road to face the Jaguars who have lost 4 straight and are only 1-10 on the season.  Odell Beckham Jr. had his massive coming out party on Sunday night last week with 146 yards and two touchdowns.  Jaguars have an abysmal secondary who won’t be able to stay with Beckham Jr. and Rueben Randle in the passing game and the Jags won’t be able to get enough pressure on Manning to force Eli turnovers.  Also, the Jaguars offense is not very good as rookie Blake Bortles has struggled to protect the ball and attack defenses.  I don’t trust Bortles to beat Eli and the Giants even at home.  

Cincinnati Bengals (7-3-1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-9) at 1PM on Sunday

Josh’s Pick: Bengals

In the AFC North, all the teams are so closely bundled together, that every game involving one of their four teams has major playoff implications. Because of this I look for the Bengals to take care of business against a less talented Bucs team. Despite signing Alteraun Verner in the offseason, he hasn’t played like the number one cornerback they’d hoped he turn into and I could see AJ Green extending his hot streak to three great games in a row against an inconsistent but talented Bucs defense. The Bucs also don’t have the firepower to fall behind in this one, or the running game to control the tempo and keep the ball on offense.

Jack’s pick: Bengals

Tampa bay at an abysmal 2-9 is still somehow in playoff contention and the Bengals are leading the division at 7-3-1.  They are coming off a win against the Texans and beat the Saints in the superdome two weeks ago by 17 points.  Tampa Bay is 1-7 over their last 8 games, Mike Evans has been awesome and is distancing himself in the offensive ROY award race.  I think the Bengals should get a relatively easy win over the Bucs in Tampa Bay.  

Oakland Raiders (1-10) @ St. Louis Rams (4-7) at 1PM on Sunday

Josh’s Pick: Rams

Great win by the Raiders a week and a half ago against the Chiefs, but I don’t think the magic will carry over against the Rams, who have been playing very solid football the last two three weeks. I look for their defensive line to be able to get pressure on Derek Carr and disrupt the passing game. I also think Shaun Hill will have a big day to respond to his goal-line pick that lost the Rams the game against the Chargers. I don’t see anyone on that Oakland defense who can matchup with Tavon Austin or Kenny Britt, so if Hill plays the distributor role, the Rams should be in a good position to get the W.

Jack’s pick: Rams

St. Louis has made a habit of playing down and up to their competition with wins over the Seahawks, 49ers, and Broncos.  The Rams defense has really come on as of late as they only gave up 7 points to the Broncos two weeks ago and should have beat the Chargers on the road last week.  I don’t trust the Raiders offense to do well against the great pass rush of the Rams and I think Derek Carr will turn the ball a few times on the way to a Rams win.

New Orleans Saints (4-7) @ Pittsburg Steelers (7-4) at 1PM on Sunday

Josh’s Pick: Steelers

Given the noted road struggles of Drew Brees and company, am I taking the obvious pick of taking the Steelers at home. Road struggles aside, the Saints have dropped all three games to the AFC North, including two in the two weeks at home. Jimmy Graham isn’t playing like the tightend he has been a majority of his career and this offense took a blow when they lost Brandon Cooks for the season. Their cornerbacks still are struggling and they have no one to matchup with Antonio Brown. And if they focus on Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell can run it up their gut for big yards as he has done all season long (or vice versa). The Steelers haven’t been constituent by any means this season, but they are definitely a more reliable bet at home than the Saints are on the road.

Jack’s pick: Steelers

New Orleans is coming off three straight losses in the superdome which is pretty incredible with how great they have been there in recent years.  Pittsburgh is coming off a close win against the Titans and had a bye week last week so they had extra time to game plan for this game.  Steelers have only one loss at home this year in a fluky game against Tampa Bay earlier in the year.  Drew Brees doesn’t play well outdoors and it is going to be cold in Pittsburgh.  I think the Steelers will get an easy win and New Orleans will lose another step in the NFC playoff race. 

Carolina Panthers (3-7-1) @ Minnesota Vikings (4-7) at 1PM on Sunday

Josh’s Pick: Vikings

Carolina has been playing bad football this season. Their offensive line is a mess which makes Cam run for his life every play or their run game to be stone-walled. I love the matchup for the Vikings on defense who can use their front seven to blitz and pressure Cam all day long, forcing some sailing throws that could lead to some turnovers. Anthony Barr has quietly played amazing at the OLB position, ranking second to only Von Miller according to PFF, however I believe him and Everson Griffin will be in for big games this upcoming Sunday. On Offense the Vikings wide receivers will face a subpar secondary that they should be able to take advantage of if Teddy can get them the ball.

Jack’s pick: Vikings 

Carolina hasn’t won a game in 6 weeks and they are 1-7-1 since week 3, they have no receivers, running game, and their defense has been awful.  Although they are coming off a bye week and Minnesota isn’t exactly great I think Minnesota will get the win at home.  Minnesota’s pass rush with Everson Griffen and rookie Anthony Barr will be able to get to Newton because of how bad the line is.  Panthers will fall to 3-8-1 on the season and Minnesota will get a good win.  

Arizona Cardinals (9-2) @ Atlanta Falcons (4-7) at 4:05 on Sunday

Josh’s Pick: Cardinals

As surprising as this may sound, I believe this game possibly hinders on Larry Fitzgerald’s questionable status. Without him, the Cardinals lose their best offensive weapon, something they cannot afford to have happen since they already lost Carson Palmer for the season and are averaging a league worst 3.6 yards per carry. If Fitzgerald plays, I give the edge to the Cardinals because it shifts Desmond Trufant over to Fitzgerald and gives Michael Floyd some opportunities against Robert Alford and John Brown an edge over Robert McClain. The Cardinals defense will give Matt Ryan a tough outing as Patrick Peterson and Antonio Cromartie are arguably the best cornerback tandem in the league (along with Revis and Browner or Sherman and Maxwell). The problem for the Cardinals obviously lies on offense, and although Atlanta’s defense is in the bottom third of the league in terms of talent, there are a lot of question marks around Drew Stanton as a starting caliber quarterback and whether he can expose those weaknesses. If Fitzgerald plays, I think they pull it out, but if he doesn’t I could see Atlanta pulling the upset and remaining on top of the woeful NFC South. My reason for sticking with the Cardinals though is that I believe Stanton will have enough time in the pocket from the lack of a pass rush to be effective in this one. 

Jack’s pick: Cardinals 

Arizona is currently the number one seed in the NFC even after getting dominated by the Seahawks a week ago, I think with Drew Stanton at QB they are vulnerable but they will still get the win in Atlanta.  Cromartie and Patrick Peterson can neutralize Roddy White and Julio Jones which takes away the Falcons biggest strength.  Falcons have the worst pass defense in football and the Cardinals should be able to take advantage of it with their strong wide receiver core.  I think the Cardinals will get the win and continue to be the number one seed in the NFC.

New England Patriots (9-2) @ Green Bay Packers (8-3) at 4:25 on Sunday

Josh’s Pick: Patriots

No surprise to see me picking the Patriots, even on the road at Green Bay. I actually think the Patriots match up favorably against the Pack, as Darrelle Revis can man up either Nelson or Cobb while McCourty and Browner bump and cover over the top against the other. However I am certain Green Bay will have its successes against the Patriots defense come Sunday, I just believe the Patriots offense will be more successful. The Packers have one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL, and the Patriots exploit weaknesses like this as well as anybody else in the league. They went rush heavy against the Colts for the same reason, and I believe the Patriots and Legarrette Blunt/Jonas Gray have a big day on the ground while working the play action and getting Gronk and LaFell involved (as Green Bay doesn’t really have one guy who can match up well with either player). I think this game will probably come down to who gets the ball last so it should be a good one. Another bonus for the Patriots; they may get their best pass rusher in Chandler Jones back this week.

Jack’s pick: Packers

This game is between the two best teams in the NFL and both have been on an absolute tear since week 11.  This game is super hard to predict and I think this will eventually be the super bowl matchup but I give the slight advantage to the Packers because they are playing at home.  Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb vs the Patriots corners is a matchup that will determine this game and I think that Jordy and Cobb will come out on top.  If Eddy Lacy doesn’t fumble and can establish some sort of presence on the ground they will be able to keep the Pats guessing and the Packers will win this one at home. 

Denver Broncos (8-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs (7-4) at 8:15 PM on Sunday Night

Josh’s Pick: Chiefs

Is this finally the game that Kansas City beats Peyton as a member of the Broncos; I believe so. The last two weeks the Broncos have faced two teams with excellent pass rushes (Dolphins and Rams) and have struggled against both (dropping one to the Rams and pulling out 25 consecutive points to beat the ‘Fins). I believe Kansas City is better than both of these teams and will be able to use Jamaal Charles effectively in the screen game as well as the run game to shorten Denver’s possessions. My biggest concern for this game is the Denver defense, as Von Miller and Demarcus Ware have combined for 19 sacks this season and can really be a problem for a Chiefs offensive line that lost the line of scrimmage to the Raiders. I think that the Chiefs utilize the screen game with Junior Hemingway and De’Anthony Thomas to diffuse the pass rush and take advantage of their own speed. Julius Thomas should be sidelined again due to an ankle injury, so that is one less weapon for the league leading pass defense that the Chiefs boast to account for this Sunday.

Jack’s pick: Denver 

Denver is coming off a close win against the Miami Dolphins and it looks like they have got their offense back together as they put up 39 on the Dolphins defense.  Kansas City has the best pass defense in all of football and it is mainly because of their pass rush but I think the Broncos will look to get the ball out quickly to neutralize the pass rush.  Also, they will be without starting safety Eric Berry who sadly is out because he is being tested for lymphoma.  They should be able to take advantage of the lack of a star in the back of the secondary and win this game in Arrowhead. 

Miami Dolphins (6-5) @ New York Jets (2-9) at 8:30 PM on Monday Night

Josh’s Pick: Jets

Despite appearing like a complete mess last Monday night against the Bills, I think Geno Smith and everyone else on this Jets roster comes out with something to prove. Geno Smith is competing for his future and I actually think the Jets pull out the win and are able to stuff Miami’s consistent run game and get to Tannehill to force pressure. I don’t have a ton of confidence in this pick, however it always seems like these two teams split their games, and with Miami coming off a loss at Denver and having both the Ravens and Patriots in the following weeks, this is almost a trap game for them. The Dolphins could easily win this matchup if they scheme for a big night for Mike Wallace, who absolutely has the talent to torch this Jets defense, but if they try to run the ball and play sloppy the Jets can steal the home victory.

Jack's pick: Miami 
Jets are coming off being completely embarrassed against the Bills on Monday night in Detroit.  Miami almost beat the Broncos last week and their offense has looked really good recently.  I think Tannehill and Mike Wallace will have big games against a Jets secondary that has been lacking recently.  Geno Smith is going to be starting for the first time in a while and he is going against the 4th best pass defense in the league and I think he will struggle to hold onto the ball.  Miami should force some turnovers from Geno and win easily in NY on Monday night.