NFC Playoff Picture

NFC Playoff Picture 

With 10 weeks in the books, the NFC’s playoff picture is starting to become a little clearer.  Not that much clearer though as 11 of the 16 teams are still in legitimate playoff contention and the race is really starting to heat up.  So let’s go through all the teams and break down their chances of playing football in January.

Group One: The Non-Contenders 

Teams: Chicago Bears, New York Giants, Washington Redskins, St. Louis Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

All of these teams listed above are essentially out of playoff contention and their seasons are essentially over.  Obviously it’s not all doom and gloom as some of these teams are playing well or have bright futures.  The Giants may be out of the race but their rookie WR Odell Beckham Jr. looks like he will be a star one day.  St. Louis is 3-6 but have played opponents very tough and have wins over the Seahawks and 49ers this year, Austin Davis has also exceeded expectations and has been legitimately good at times this year.  Tampa Bay is actually not really done at 1-8 as they are only 3 games out of first place in the terrible NFC South, but they aren’t very good right now and should be focusing on a high draft pick, adding a star QB like Mariota or Winston could do wonders into changing the fortunes down in Tampa.  Chicago has all of the offensive weapons in the world but they’re complete lack of a defense and an offensive line has made those weapons irrelevant.  With some smart drafting and FA signings they could regain relevance soon.

Group two:  The NFC South 

Wow what a mess this division is, currently the team in first place is 4-5, the whole division is 5-19-1 against teams outside of the NFC south this season.  Tampa Bay is 1-8 and not completely out of the playoff picture, and the Atlanta Falcons have won once in the last 53 days, haven’t won a game against a team outside of the division and are still one game out of first.  Sadly, since one team must come out of this division it kind of messes it up for the rest of the league and we could see a scenario where an 11-5 wildcard team having to go on the road against a 7-9 NFC South team like the Seahawks did in the 2010-11 season to none other than the New Orleans Saints.  Could we see the roles reverse this year?

Atlanta Falcons 

Record: (3-6) 3rd in NFC South
Remaining Schedule:  @ Carolina, Cleveland, Arizona, @ Green Bay, Pittsburgh, @ New Orleans, Carolina

I would say that the Atlanta Falcons are the least likely to take this division even though they are still just one game out of first place just by virtue of how tough their remaining schedule is.  Although Matt Ryan and the Falcons are good in the dome they still have games remaining against playoff teams Pittsburgh and Cleveland at home and have to go on the road against Green Bay and the Saints.  The thing the Falcons have in their favor is a 3-0 divisional record which gives them the tiebreaker over both the Saints and Panthers.  However, I think unless they really turn it around, their schedule is too hard to make the playoffs.

Carolina Panthers 

Record: (3-6-1) 2nd in NFC South

Remaining Schedule:  Atlanta, @ Minnesota, @ New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, @ Atlanta

Of all teams still in competition for playoff spots I think the Panthers are the least talented and it showed after a 45-21 thrashing at the hands of the Eagles last week.  They were 12-4 with the best defense in the league last year but they lost Greg Hardy and their entire secondary and the play of defensive MVP Luke Keuchly has regressed ever so slightly.  The only chance they have is that they have played a hellish schedule so far and it gets much easier from here on out.  They get Atlanta at home and on the road, Minnesota after a bye week and a game against Tampa at home.  Cam Newton is not 100% right now and with the lack of weapons and offensive line they need him to be at 150%, if he can somehow turn it around the Panthers may be able to sneak a division title, but I wouldn’t count on it.

New Orleans Saints

Record: (4-5) 1st in NFC South

Remaining Schedule: Cincinnati, Baltimore, @ Pittsburgh, Carolina, @ Chicago, Atlanta, @ Tampa Bay

New Orleans is currently the large favorite to be the team that comes out of this cesspool, with the best record in the division and one of the easiest schedules left.  Cincinnati and Baltimore are tough games but they get both of them at home which makes things much easier, also they still play Carolina, Atlanta, Tampa and Chicago.  None of which are good teams.  I would put my money on the Saints to win the division and get to host a playoff game this January.

Group 3: In the Hunt 

This group is for teams that are on the outside looking in as of right now and it includes the 7th, 8th, and 9th seeds in the current NFC playoff picture.

Minnesota Vikings 

Record: (4-5) 3rd in NFC North

Remaining schedule: @ Bears, Packers, Panthers, Jets, @ Lions, @ Dolphins, Bears

Going into week 11 the Vikings are still in playoff contention and at 4-5 they are only 2 games out of the wildcard race and 3 out of the division but I would put their chances of getting a wildcard or a division win at almost zero because of the strength of their remaining schedule.  With games coming against the Packers and on the road against the Lions and Dolphins they probably will lose at least those three games and I could see them splitting with the Bears.  Unless AP gets reinstated soon and shakes off the rust immediately, I don’t see them being able to keep pace with the Packers and Lions, let alone outpace them for a division title.

San Francisco 49ers 

Record: (5-4) 3rd in NFC West

Remaining Schedule: @ Giants, Redskins, Seahawks, @ Raiders, @ Seahawks, San Diego, Arizona

Thanks to some great acting by Perrish Cox on the Hail Mary to Jimmy Graham at the end of regulation last week, the 49ers are 5-4 instead of 4-5 and have kept themselves alive in the playoff race.  They still have a tough road ahead as they are currently 3 games behind the division leading Cardinals and two games behind a wildcard slot.  Also, they have 3 easy games (@ Giants, @ Raiders and Redskins) left and 4 difficult games left against Seahawks x2, San Diego and Arizona. Thankfully 3 of the 4 tough games left are going to be played in San Francisco but they already have a loss to Arizona and Seattle has historically been able to own Colin Kaepernick.  The biggest advantage the 49ers have going for them is the tiebreakers they hold over both the Eagles and Cowboys from beating them earlier in the year.  As of right now it looks like one of the wildcard spots is going to come from the NFC East and if the 49ers tie either the Eagles or Cowboys in record, they will advance to the playoffs.  The problem is that it may take 11-5 to get a wildcard in the NFC this year.  I would say with their strength of schedule the odds that the 49ers are playoff bound this year are less than 50%.

Group 4: The Contenders 

Green Bay Packers

Record: (6-3) 2nd in NFC North

Remaining Schedule: Eagles, @ Vikings, Patriots, Falcons, @ Bills, @ Buccaneers, Lions

If the season ended right now the Packers would not be playing in January this season, thankfully for them there are still 7 games left for them to play and their schedule is not too bad.  They have games against 3 of the 7 best teams in football: Pats, Eagles, and Lions.  However, all of those games are at home where Rodgers hasn’t lost in a game where he didn’t get injured since week 1 of 2012.  I don’t think that streak will continue as they are bound to lose to either one of those three teams but if Rodgers continues his level of play and the defense can sort of hold it together I could easily see the Packers winning out and grabbing a first round bye.  Not bad for a team that isn’t even in the playoffs as of right now.

Seattle Seahawks 

Record: (6-3) 2nd in NFC West

Remaining Schedule: @ Chiefs, Cardinals, @ 49ers, @ Eagles, 49ers, @ Cardinals, Rams

Wow Seattle has a tough road ahead, and it starts with a trip to the loudest stadium in the NFL at Arrowhead to face the chiefs and there are still two games against the Cardinals and 49ers.  Honestly, with a schedule this difficult it looks like the Seahawks might not be making the playoffs.  I could see them losing to the Chiefs, and splitting with the Niners and Cardinals.  This would leave them 2-3 and at 8-6, and even if they win on the road against the Eagles who are 5-0 there this season and beat the rams it would leave them at 10-6 which might not be good enough to get a wildcard this season.  Good news is that they are getting LB Bobby Wagner and S Kam Chancellor back soon and that could help them on the stretch run.  Even with these key players back, this schedule looks too tough and I think that the defending champs may not be in the playoffs this year.

Dallas Cowboys 

Record: (7-3) 2nd in NFC East

Remaining Schedule: @ Giants, Eagles, @ Bears, @ Eagles, Colts, at Redskins

Cowboys will be on bye this week but they have a tough schedule coming up with a pair of games against division leading Eagles and one against Luck and the Colts.  The main thing they have to focus on is keeping their players healthy, Tony Romo has a back injury and league leading running back Demarco Murray has had a ridiculous workload so far.  Their defense is overachieving and can’t afford to have key players go down due to injury.  I think if Dallas can stay healthy as a team and avoid a Cowboys-esque December collapse they could get a wildcard birth and depending on how they do against the Eagles, a division title isn’t out of the question either.

Philadelphia Eagles 

Record: (7-2) 1st in NFC East

Remaining Schedule: @ Packers, Titans, @ Cowboys, Seahawks, Cowboys, @ Redskins, Giants

After destroying a lowly Panthers team the Eagles moved to 7-2 and a tie with the Detroit Lions for a first round bye.  Now their schedule is about to get tough as they go on the road against the Packers, play the Cowboys twice, and host the defending champions all in the span of 5 weeks.  After being the second least injured team last year, the pendulum has swung the other way as the Eagles have been wrecked by injuries, especially at offensive line.  Fortunately, they have their 4 best players back on the offensive line and the only injured lineman, Todd Herremans, is barely better than his replacement Matt Tobin.  Last year the Eagles had the second best offensive in the league that carried a below average defense and an abysmal special teams, things have changed this year as the offense is only 17th in DVOA while their defense is 6th and the special teams is 1st.  With their superstars Jason Kelce and Evan Mathis back and playing together finally, their offense and more specifically their run game should start to improve.  They have put themselves at a disadvantage because their two last minute losses have been against teams in the hunt in the NFC; this means they will lose the tiebreaker to these two teams if they end up with the same records.  I think this Sunday’s game against the Packers is going to reveal a lot about this team and it might be a preview of the NFC Championship Game.

Detroit Lions 

Record: (7-2) 1st in the NFC North

Remaining Schedule: @ Cardinals, @ Patriots, Bears, Buccaneers, Vikings, @ Bears, @ Packers

Surprise surprise! The Detroit Lions currently have the best defense in the entire NFL, I don’t think I can remember a time where the Lions defense has been good, much less the best in the league.  All of the first round picks they have used on the D-Line are starting to pay off as Ziggy Ansah and Ndomokung Suh have been tearing it up on the field, especially Suh.  The Lions have a tough schedule ahead as they still have to play the Cardinals, Patriots and Packers on the road.  Detroit is famous for its late season collapses where they fail to make the playoffs like they did last season, but that was under coach Jim Schwartz.  I think this team will be able to secure a playoff spot, but when it comes to the division, I think that will be decided the last game of the season, and I would pick Rodgers at Lambeau.

Arizona Cardinals 

Record: (8-1) 1st in the NFC West

Remaining Schedule:  Lions, @ Seahawks, @ Falcons, Chiefs, @ Rams, Seahawks, @ 49ers

Arizona has certainly been a surprise this season as no one expected them to go 8-1 over the first 9 games and now the fun might be over as their QB Carson Palmer has gone down with a torn ACL and Drew Stanton will be starting the rest of the year.  Good news for the Cardinals is that their success is not completely dependent on their starting QB as they have won games with Stanton as their starter this year, and he actually has a better QBR than Palmer.  That’s not saying that he’s better just that he isn’t that much worse.  Arizona has a few advantages, first of all, they have a 1 game lead over the entire NFC which is huge, and they also hold tiebreakers over Dallas and Philly with head to head wins.  The biggest disadvantage the Cardinals have is that their schedule gets tough and their winning ways may not be sustainable.  They play 5 games against playoff contenders including road games against the Seahawks and 49ers.  Also, Zona has been winning but haven’t really dominated as they are only 15th in DVOA in the league and are 25th in offensive DVOA, now that the competition is about to get tough and their QB is gone, so will they be able to put up enough points to keep up with top defenses?  We don’t know the answer, but Arizona has gotten themselves out to such a good start that they can afford to lose some games, even if they lose 4 of their 5 tough games they should still end up at 11-5.  11-5 should be good enough for a playoff spot.

As of right now the playoff matchups look like this:

1 Seed: Cardinals (bye)
2 Seed: Lions (bye)

Wildcard Round

3 Seed Eagles vs. 6 Seed Seahawks
4 Seed Saints vs. 5 Seed Cowboys

I think that it will end up as follows

1 Seed: Eagles
2 Seed: Packers

Wildcard Round

3 Seed Arizona vs. 6 Seed Lions
4 Seed Saints vs. 5 Seed Seahawks

No matter what happens we are about to witness an incredible race for playoff spots in the NFC over these next 7 weeks and the playoffs this year in the NFC are going to be incredibly exciting.