Jack's Week 12 Game Picks
Jacks pick: Browns
Atlanta is coming off a last second win against Carolina where they won off a missed Graham Gano field goal. Atlanta beating only teams in the division, winning on a missed field goal, and falling ass backwards into first place and the #4 seed is pretty representative of how the NFC South has been this year. I think the Falcons will lose this week at home because although the Browns laid an egg last week Cleveland will control the game at the line of scrimmage which is the Falcons biggest weakness on both sides of the ball. Also with dynamic weapon and last year’s receiving leader Josh Gordon coming back from a 10 week suspension Cleveland’s offense will have a deep passing dimension that it hasn’t had this entire year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-8) at Chicago Bears (4-6) 1:00 pm Sunday
Jacks pick: Bears
Neither of these teams have much to play for as they are basically eliminated from playoff contention. Tampa Bay has some bright spots with Mike Evans starting to run away with the OROY award race and Tampa still has some nice pieces on defense. I think Chicago wins this because they will be able to use their big receivers and vertical passing attack to put up points on the Tampa defense.
Cincinnati Bengals (6-3-1) at Houston Texans (5-5) 1:00 pm Sunday
Jacks pick: Bengals
Last week it seemed everyone had written off the Bengals after a terrible stretch and a game in New Orleans coming up. Now after soundly beating the Saints in the Superdome they are in sole possession of first place in the insanely competitive AFC North. I think they will beat the Texans in Houston this week because the Houston offense and Ryan Mallet in his second career start will struggle to move the ball against the Bengals D.
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9) at Indianapolis Colts (6-4) 1:00 pm Sunday
Jacks pick: Colts
This game shouldn’t be much of a contest as one team is fighting for a playoff spot and the other is fighting for the number one pick. This game could be a little bit trappy for the Colts after facing New England last week but I doubt they are really overlooking the Jaguars with the equally bad Redskins coming up the week after this. I expect TY Hilton and Luck to burn the Jaguars sometimes inept secondary as long as they can keep him upright against one of the best defensive lines in the league.
Green Bay Packers (7-3) at Minnesota Vikings (4-6) 1:00 pm Sunday
Jacks pick: Packers
Vikings haven’t exactly been terrible this season but they were absolutely blown out by the Packers on Thursday night the last time these two teams met, and the Packers have gotten even better since that meeting. As an Eagles fan, I witnessed the full power of this Packers team last week and I don’t think anyone is going to beat this team with Rodgers playing this well, especially not the Vikings.
Detroit Lions (7-3) at New England Patriots (8-2) 1:00 pm Sunday
Jacks pick: Patriots
I think there should just be a general rule right now that you should never pick against the Patriots at home as Brady’s career home record is like 1231343-10 or something in that ballpark. Also the Lions lost last week and we are getting close to thanksgiving which means the Lions are bound to collapse and miss the playoffs soon, I think it continues this week with a loss in New England.
Tennessee Titans (2-8) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-3) 1:00 pm Sunday
Jacks pick: Eagles
Last week was a murphy’s law game for the Eagles: everything that could go wrong did go wrong. On top of everything going wrong the Eagles just don’t match up well in the secondary as Fletcher and Williams are horrible at playing the sideline where Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson basically make their living. Tennessee played well against the Steelers on Monday night but the Eagles defense will not allow Zach Mettenberger to have as much time in the pocket as he did last week. This should be an easy bounce back win at home for the Eagles who are trying to make a push for a playoff spot.
St. Louis Rams (4-6) at San Diego Chargers (6-4) 4:00 pm Sunday
Jacks pick: Chargers
St. Louis has made a habit of beating great teams with wins against Seattle, San Francisco, and now Denver this year. I don’t think that trend will continue this week against the Chargers as they should be able to actually block for their QB. Last week Manning had the line in his face all game and since he has almost zero mobility it completely disrupted the flow of the offense. I don’t expect Rivers to have as bad of a problem with the pressure and that should allow the Chargers offense to actually put up points and outpace Shaun Hill and the Rams O.
Arizona Cardinals (9-1) at Seattle Seahawks (6-4) 4:25 pm Sunday
Jacks pick: Seahawks
Somehow this Cardinal team keeps winning and is now standing at 9-1 with a 2 game lead in the NFC. I think there is something to be said for a team that just finds a way to win like the Cardinals do but I also think it means they are a prime candidate for a little bit of regression. I think that starts this week when they go to Seattle to take on the Seahawks who need this win to keep their playoff hopes alive. I think the Seahawks secondary is going to force Drew Stanton to make mistakes and he will get rattled early leading to a Seahawks win.
Miami Dolphins (6-4) at Denver Broncos (7-3) 1:00 pm Sunday
Jacks pick: Dolphins
This is definitely a risky pick as the Broncos are generally a pretty sound team at home but I think they are very vulnerable this week. Last week they lost to the Rams and the Dolphins are basically a rich man’s version of the Rams. They are really good at getting pressure on the QB and will be able to bother Peyton. Manning will be without slot receiver Emmanuel Sanders who may or may not be dead after getting hit by TJ McDonald last week, and without NFL TD reception leader Julius Thomas. Those two players are sort of like Peyton’s security blanket which he will need and not have against the great front 7 of the Dolphins.
Washington Redskins (3-7) at San Francisco 49ers (6-4) 4:25 pm Sunday
Jacks pick: 49ers
I would first like to file a petition to move this from primetime and replace it with the Detroit New England game. Secondly I think this game is tough to predict because the Niners are so inconsistent, they beat the Saints on the road one week and the next week barely beat the Giants when Eli threw 5 picks. I don’t think the Redskins offense will do well as RGIII has generally been garbage since returning, he’s been so bad that he has been called out by his coach and there are people that actually want Colt McCoy to start. I could see this being a low scoring game but I definitely see the Niners coming out on top.
New York Jets (3-7) “at” Buffalo Bills (6-4) Time: 6:00 pm Monday Night
Jacks pick: Bills
Although this home game has now turned into a weird situation where the teams will travel to Detroit because of 7 feet of snow, I still think the Bills will beat the Jets. The Bills are too stout on defense to let a team with that few of weapons do well against them. They should be able to force a bunch of turnovers as the Jets are extremely turnover prone and the Jets won’t be able to get the run game going either. Side note: the Bills players had to be picked up from their homes in snowmobiles where they were driven to the main roads so they could get on a bus to get to Detroit. If they don’t win after going through that type of adversity I don’t know what to tell you.
Dallas Cowboys (7-3) at New York Giants (3-7) 8:25 pm Sunday
Jacks pick: Giants
If you didn’t know about rookie WR Odell Beckham Jr. by now I think he will be a household name after this Sunday night game. He has been spectacular in the few games he has played so far and I think on the big stage he will have a coming out party. Divisional games always get weird, especially in the NFC East, and I think this game is no exception and the Giants will get an improbable victory.
Baltimore Ravens (6-4) at New Orleans Saints (4-6) 8:25 pm Monday
Jacks pick: Baltimore
I picked the Saints to win both of their last two games at home because of how good they usually are at home. Whether or not they win this game I think we can throw that out the window for this year because this team is not good at all. But since I’m taking the Ravens and took the Saints the last two weeks that means they are probably going to win this game. You’re welcome Saints fans.
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