Week 5 Picks
Josh's Record: (37-23) - Last Week: (7-6)
Minnesota Vikings (2-2) at Green Bay Packers (2-2) Thursday 8:25 PM
Jack’s Pick: Packers
This pick was made much easier by the fact that Teddy Bridgewater, the Vikings first round rookie who looked incredible last week, is inactive tonight with an ankle injury. The Vikings should be able to run all over the Packers horrendous run defense but I think Rodgers should be able to throw all over the Vikings secondary. Also, I’m taking Rodgers against Christian Ponder any day of the week.
Josh’s Pick: Packers
With Bridgewater sitting this one out and Christian Ponder getting his first start for the Vikings this season, this a relatively easy pick. However, both teams played excellent last week although I feel like the Vikings will already be missing their “undefeated” rookie signal caller.
Chicago Bears (2-2) at Carolina Panthers (2-2) Sunday 1:00 PM
Jacks Pick: Bears
Neither of these teams have impressed over the last few weeks with Carolina getting killed their last two games and the Bears losing badly to Green Bay last Sunday. I think the Bears will take this one on the road in Carolina, the Panthers secondary has been torched the last two weeks and they will have trouble dealing with Jeffrey, Marshall and Martellus Bennet. Expect QB Jay Cutler to have a big day.
Josh’s Pick: Bears
I’m picking the Bears to scrap through another tough road win (after already collecting road wins against the 49ers and the Jets). Carolina hasn’t looked the same since they were exposed on Monday night by the Steelers two weeks ago. Chicago’s big tall receivers match up favorably against a less-talented Panther’s secondary. Carolina’s offense is also a bit too stop and go to trust after shaky performances the last two weeks against the Steelers and Ravens.
Houston Texans (3-1) at Dallas Cowboys (3-1) Sunday 1:00 PM
Jacks pick: Cowboys
Maybe the Cowboys are better than we thought? As an Eagles fan, I hate the Cowboys more than any other team, but I was still very impressed by their Sunday night throttling of the Saints. The Texans are giving up 5 yards per carry and going against leading rusher Demarco Murray and the insane Cowboys line is not going to help that. Murray should run all over Houston and get and move to 4-1.
Josh’s Pick: Cowboys
This is a good un-hyped matchup this week with both teams coming in at 3-1. No team has impressed me and exceeded my expectations more than Dallas this season so I’m putting my eggs in their basket. Their offensive line has performed like one of the elite units in the NFL and is loaded with talent. JJ Watt is a phenomenal player, but I see the ‘Boys riding a consistent running attack and getting one on one matchups on the outside playing to the strengths of their talented young wide receivers.
Buffalo Bills (2-2) at Detroit Lions (3-1) Sunday 1:00 PM
Jacks Pick: Lions
Kyle Orton’s first start in Buffalo is going to be a tough one. The Lions are currently 2nd in opposing passing yards and have been excellent at generating pressure this season. They should be able to pressure Orton and force some turnovers and hurt the Bills offense. I fully expect Megatron and Matt Stafford to get it done this week on the offensive side and I think the Lions will win big.
Josh’s Pick: Lions
With Orton getting the start for the benched EJ Manuel, I can’t see the Bills keeping up with the highly talented Lions offense. The Lions have also played solid defense this season despite a bit of a mixing pot in the secondary. The Lions should win this comfortably barring too many mistakes from Stafford.
Cleveland Browns (1-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-3) Sunday 1:00 PM
Jacks Pick: Titans
It is rumored that Jake Locker is back starting this week after sitting out last week with an injury. As horrendous as Jake Locker has been he can’t get much worse than the dumpster fire that Charlie Whitehurst was last week. Tennessee is 1-3 and has lost big but the records of the teams they have played are a combined 10-5 so they have been better than their record suggests. I think this game will be very close but the Titans should be able to beat Brian Hoyer and the Browns.
Josh’s Pick: Browns
This is definitely a harder game to pick as both teams have some pretty large holes that have been exposed throughout this season. The Browns have played almost every game close this season and are coming off a bye this week. With both of those factors playing, I will give the advantage to Cleveland because they had more time to rest and prepare for this game.
St. Louis Rams (1-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) Sunday 1:00 PM
Jacks Pick: Eagles
Eagles are coming off a horrendous loss to the 49ers where the offense was completely unable to move the ball. Although Nick Foles has not been great, the run game has been nonexistent, and the defense has been wildly inconsistent the Eagles are still 3-1 which is positive. They get Lane Johnson back this week which should go a long way towards getting their league best run game from last year back to its previous level. I think Aaron Donald and the Rams line should have a big day against interior linemen David Molk and Matt Tobin, both who have been bad in a backup role. I still don’t see the Eagles defense getting scored on by Austin Davis and the Rams enough to lose this one.
Josh’s Pick: Eagles
The eagles get a large boost on their offensive line this week as Lane Johnson returns from his four game suspension. The O-Line was horrendous in their loss to San Fran as they were only able to get LeSean McCoy 17 rushing yards (an absurdly low number). I see a bounce back week in the making for Shady as the Rams have somewhat struggled against the run this season. This will set up play action and give Foles more time to pass when he drops back.
Atlanta Falcons (2-2) at New York Giants (2-2) Sunday 1:00 PM
Jacks Pick: Falcons
This game was definitely one of the tougher games to pick. Picking the Falcons was tough after they were victimized by Teddy Bridgewater and Jerrick McKinnon last week and the Giants destroyed the Redskins. However, I have faith that Ryan and Julio Jones should be able to torch the Giants secondary that is currently 22nd in the league in passing yards. The Falcons D has been horrendous but I think they are bound to bounce back this week. This game will be close but I give a slight edge to the Falcons.
Josh’s Pick: Giants
Despite playing against some lackluster competition the last two games, Eli has looked pretty decent, especially after putting on one of his best career performances last week against the Redskins. The Falcons showed that they will continue to struggle on the road, now dropping to 1-9 on their last ten cumulative road games, with their one win coming against the Bills last season. Matt Ryan and the offense plays differently away from the Georgia Dome, and I like that trend continuing against a Giants defense that has forced a surprising amount of turnovers in the last two weeks, including six against the Redskins. For the Falcons to win this game they have to win the turnover margin, where the Giants are 7-0 when having a positive margin and only 2-11 when having a negative margin.
Baltimore Ravens (3-1) at Indianapolis Colts (2-2) Sunday: 1:00 PM
Jacks Pick: Ravens
Both teams have looked great the past few weeks with Indy destroying the Titans and the Ravens dominating the Panthers. The Ravens have been one of the most impressive teams so far with their only loss coming to the undefeated Bengals. While Luck has been on fire he hasn’t been playing exactly the greatest competition, with his last two wins coming against the Titans and Jaguars. I think the Ravens will be able to slow Luck down and their revamped offense should score on the
Colts week defense.
Josh’s Pick: Colts
The Colts are a good team that has yet to beat any other good teams, losing close games to both the Broncos and Eagles but beating up the Titans and Jags. Obviously they lie more near the tier that the Broncos and Eagles are in, so I will be looking for them to prove themselves by beating a very solid Ravens club. In one away game this season, Flacco and the Baltimore offense looked spotty and almost dropped a gimme win against the Browns. I see this game as tight and down to the wire, as the win could easily go to either team. I just feel like the luck will finally swing the Colts way.
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4) Sunday 1:00 PM
Jacks Pick: Steelers
As fun and good as Bortles has been I don’t see the Jaguars doing enough to beat the Steelers this week even after the Steelers completely choked away the game against Tampa last week. Rothelisberger and Antonio Brown should ravage the Jaguars last ranked secondary and Le’Veon Bell should run all over the Jaguars linebackers. I don’t think this game should really be all that close.
Josh’s pick: Steelers
Despite losing to one of the worst teams in the NFL last week in the Bucs, the Steelers won’t make the same mistake twice and give up a game like that to a lesser opponent. Roethlisberger had his best statistical game last week and I look for him to set a new season best against the Jags last ranked pass defense in the league.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3) at New Orleans Saints (1-3)
Jacks Pick: Saints
Who would have thought this would be a battle of 1-3 teams? New Orleans has been downright terrible so far with their only win coming at home against the Vikings. However, they are still great at the dome and should be able to take down the lowly Bucs.
Josh’s Picks: Saints
The Saints have been the most underachieving team so far this season, but I look for them to start to get back on tract against a Bucs team that showed some of the talent they have on their roster last week. The Saints biggest problem is road games, as they are a clearly inferior team then when they play at home, having a 13 point average difference in points per game on offense, and allowing 6 more points per game on defense. Fortunately for Drew Brees and Co, it’s a home game this week.
Arizona Cardinals (3-0) at Denver Broncos (2-1) Sunday 4:05 PM
Jacks Pick: Broncos
As great as the Cardinals have been with Drew Stanton at QB I think their ability to be successful with backup level talent at that position ends this week. Peyton Manning should be able to find success against the Cardinals defense and I don’t think Stanton will be able to keep up. Broncos should end the Arizona Cardinals unbeaten record.
Josh’s pick: Broncos
The last time Peyton Manning was on a football field was when his Broncos fell in overtime to the team that beat them in the Super Bowl while he watched from the sidelines. After having the bye week to simmer, I’m Manning wants nothing more than to knock off one of the two last unbeatens and reclaim some confidence. Zona has played top level defense this season and is also coming off a bye, but Peyton Manning > Drew Stanton.
Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) at San Francisco 49ers (2-2) Sunday 4:25 PM
Jacks Pick: Chiefs
Although the Niners defense looked great last week against the Eagles and held them without a touchdown I still am going to pick the Chiefs to win this one. The Eagles had 5 sacks last week against the 49ers O-Line and were pressuring Kaepernick almost every snap, and the Eagles D Line is usually terrible at getting to the Quarterback. Houston gets to the QB with ease and should be able to generate pressure only rushing 4 defenders. I think this will force Kaep to make mistakes and lose this game for the Niners.
Josh’s pick: Chiefs
After the Chiefs man-handling of the Patriots, its hard not to pick them over the 49ers. The pulled
away because of complete ineptitude from the Pats offensive efficiency and play calling, and the 49ers have similar offensive issues. If Kansas is as diverse and creative with their play calling that they were Monday night, I could easily see them sinking the 49ers to below .500. Alex Smith will also have his shot at redemption against his former team in their new stadium.
NY Jets (1-3) at San Diego Chargers (3-1) Sunday 4:25 PM
Jacks Pick: Chargers
The Jets defense is great up front and is one of the best run defenses in the league; however, they don’t have to worry about San Diego running over them as the Chargers are second to last in rushing yards. Instead, they have to worry about Phil Rivers and the Chargers passing attack who are 5th best in the league. Keenan Allen, Eddie Royal, and Malcolm Floyd should be able to attack this week Jets secondary and get the win.
Josh’s picks: Chargers
Mike McCoy has San Diego playing great football. Aside from their one point loss to the Cardinals on Monday night week one, San Diego has looked like one of the more dominant teams in the NFL. They beat Seattle at home by two scores and definitely have a more consistent offensive attack than Geno Smith and Chris Johnson. To make matters tougher for the Jets, Eric Decker is questionable again. Despite a good defensive effort from the Jets, I see San Diego edging them out due to a mistake or two from Geno.
Cincinnati Bengals (3-0) at New England Patriots (2-2) Sunday 8:30 PM
Jacks pick: Bengals
Man the Patriots are a mess and things don’t get easier as they face arguably the league’s best team coming off a bye week. I think the Bengals defense is going to dominate this game and they will get a low scoring win like they did last year where they won 13-6.
Josh’s pick: Patriots
I have been a Patriots fan all of my life, and I have never cognitively remembered or witnessed a game where they got blown out by the margin that the Chiefs beat them by. The Patriots have historically been the best home team in the AFC for several of the last few seasons and even after a bye week for the Bengals, I don’t see the defense self-destructing the way they did against the confusing looks from the Chiefs offense, and I also don’t see the Pats offense being as inept. Andy Dalton isn’t Alex Smith, he makes more mistakes and is definitely turnover prone in the spotlight, a factor that could lead to a Patriots win. I could easily see the Pats dropping this game as they have done nothing to really prove they can stay competitive against quality level opponents. I am optimistic that the addition of Brandon Browner (coming off a four game suspension) will be aparent as they have been thin at cornerback for most of the season. I’m hoping that we see a Patriots team more reminiscent of the past than the team they’ve shown to be this season.
Seattle Seahawks (2-1) at Washington Redskins (1-3)
Jacks Pick: Seahawks
Redskins get absolutely shafted this week, playing Monday night against the reigning super bowl champion coming off a bye week on national TV. Their offense and defense looked horrendous last week against the Giants and I feel like they may end up being embarrassed. Kirk Cousins got killed by the Giants secondary, going against the Legion of Boom may be a massacre.
Josh’s pick: Seahawks
It is known that the Seahawks are somewhat vulnerable when playing on the road, but with the week off to prepare, I exponentially increase the chance of winning against an already favorable matchup. Kirk was a turnover machine in his last start, throwing 5 interceptions, not a game trend you want to have going into a matchup against the Seahawks. I expect the ‘Hawks to come out and play like one the best teams in the NFL off their bye.
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