Week 4 Picks

Week 4 Picks 

Jacks record: (28-19) - Last Week: (11-5)

Josh's Record: (30-17) - Last Week: (13-3)

New York Giants (1-2) at Washington Redskins (1-2) Thursday 8:25 PM

Jack’s pick: Redskins

Both teams may have had their best games of the season last week with both offenses coming off great performances.  I think the Redskins are a much better team overall and although the Giants offense looked great last Sunday they still have a lot of holes.  The Redskins should be able to get after Eli Manning enough to slow down the Giants offense and win this game.

Josh’s pick: Redskins

I like the Redskins on a short week. They played their hearts out against the eagles last week and came close to an on the road upset. Eli and the Giants defense is playing better week by week, but Rashad Jennings just had a 34 carry performance four days ago, so they might not be able to utilize him as much as they would like on a regular week because after all he is a human being. I believe the Giants make one too many mistakes and cost themselves the game. On a side note, all three Thursday night winners so far this season have been the home team.

Green Bay Packers (1-2) at Chicago Bears (2-1) Sunday 1:00 PM

Jack’s pick: Packers

This week is filled with very difficult games to pick and this one may be the toughest.  Chicago is going to look to avenge last year’s week 17 loss where Rodgers beat the Bears on a toss to Randall Cobb in the final minute.  These teams are so even that I’m going to give the advantage to the Packers because Rodgers always comes to play against the Bears.

Josh’s pick: Packers

Despite losing last week, I felt like the Packers received a wakeup call. If they drop this game they will fall to 1-3, obviously not the record they expected by week four. Aaron Rodgers will have a bounce back game despite going against a ball hawking Bears secondary. However Chicago has one of the most loaded offenses in the NFL and has the potential to match any team in points. I’m banking on Aaron Rodgers playing like an elite quarterback, something he has been inconsistent with this season.

Buffalo Bills (2-1) at Houston Texans (2-1) Sunday 1:00 PM

Jacks pick: Texans

Both of these teams are very equal coming in with 2-1 records.   Buffalo has certainly been more impressive with wins against the Bears and Dolphins and Houston is coming off a beat down from the Giants.  The biggest concern is Houston’s D looked lackluster against the Giants last week, however I think that is the exception not the norm.  I see Houston’s D and Deandre Hopkins leading them to a win over Buffalo.

Josh’s pick: Bills

Here we have two talented teams with two subpar quarterbacks. Both teams have traveled similar paths this season winning against their first two opponents and then dropping last week games.  I feel like Buffalo can steal this one regardless of Arian Foster’s status. A healthy Arian Foster could mean for different ends, however as he is already labeled a game time decision he wouldn’t be playing at 100%.  The Bills also should have a big day on the ground, as Rashad Jennings pounded the Texans for 174 yards last week.

Tennessee Titans (1-2) at Indianapolis Colts (1-2) Sunday 1:00 PM

Jacks Pick: Colts

After an impressive week one performance that got Titans fans feeling optimistic about the rest of the year, the team came crashing down to earth.  The Titans and especially QB Jake Locker have been terrible the last few weeks with losses to the Cowboys and Bengals.  I think Indy and Andrew Luck will handle this one easily.

Josh’s pick: Colts

Aside from their week 1 stunning of the Chiefs, Jake Locker has played very lackluster, and the team as a whole has looked shaky the last two weeks. Despite similar records, they are on completely different ends of the 1-2 spectrum. I see the Colts walking away from this one comfortably.

Carolina Panthers (2-1) at Baltimore Ravens (2-1) Sunday 1:00 PM

Jack’s pick: Ravens

The Panthers travel to Baltimore in Steve Smiths first game against his former team.  I think these teams are pretty much identically talented so this game is nearly impossible to pick.  I’m going to pick the Ravens in this one because they are at home plus the added motivation for Steve Smith makes me think he is going to have a big game.

Josh’s pick: Ravens

I am a believer that the Panthers are fundamentally good football team, but last week we saw Pittsburgh scheme around the talented defense by using quick screens and short routes. I see Baltimore taking on a similar offensive mindset, while playing solid defense. Cam and the Panthers’ offense was a bit inconsistent last week, and I like that trend continuing.

Detroit Lions (2-1) at NY Jets (1-2) Sunday 1:00 PM

Jacks pick: Lions
The Lions held Green Bay to only 7 points last week which is a pretty incredible feat against that high powered offense.  If the defense plays that well against the Jets they will easily win, if it doesn’t, I still have faith that the Lions will put up points in this game.  The Jets don’t have a great secondary and will struggle to cover Megatron this week.  I see a big week from him and a win for the Lions.

Josh’s pick: Lions
The Lions are playing inspired football right now. They had a great defensive performance against the Packers last week, holding Aaron Rodgers to only 7 points. The Jets played themselves out of a victory against the Bears, as they had multiple opportunities to steal the win. The lack of consistency in the Jets redzone offense makes this pick a little easier to make considering the talent the Lions have on offense.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) Sunday 1:00 PM

Jacks pick: Steelers

Steelers looked amazing after dominating the Panthers on Sunday night last week and this week should get much easier.  The Bucs are coming off an embarrassing 56-14 loss on Sunday night against the Falcons, and have been genuinely awful through three weeks.  Adding the fact that this game is in Pittsburgh I think the Steelers win this one comfortably.

Josh’s pick: Steelers

I oddly think this game will be closer than some people might expect. The Tampa roster is still loaded with talent and with Mike Glennon getting the start, you never the spark that a new QB can bring to an offense with a week of prep and a game plan. I bet Bucs play with a chip on their shoulder after being completely embarrassed last Thursday night against the Falcons. I still think the Steelers take this one but won’t be shocked if the score is within 10.

Miami Dolphins (1-2) “at” Oakland Raiders (0-3) 7:00 PM GMT (played at Wembley Stadium)

Jacks pick: Dolphins

This game is actually at 1 PM Sunday but in celebration of this year’s game at Wembley stadium I put it in Greenwich Mean Time.  I think the Dolphins will be able to handle Oakland but this probably won’t be a pretty game.  If the NFL really wants to build the brand of the NFL in England I question their decision to send these two teams for the showcase game.

Josh’s pick: Dolphins

The Dolphins were a dumpster fire against a Chiefs team that is both struggling and banged up. I look for them to respond against a lusterless Oakland squad. I expect Miami to win with their defense as they can rush the passer as well as anyone today’s NFL.

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) at San Diego Chargers (2-1) Sunday 4:05 PM

Jacks pick:  Chargers

I think San Diego wins this one handily.  Jacksonville’s defense has allowed 118 points in 3 games so far and they go against one of the NFL’s best in Phillip Rivers this week.  I expect a huge day for Rivers and the bolts offense.

Josh’s pick: Chargers

Despite my new QB sentiment from the above Bucs pick, I think the Chargers easily win this one at home. San Diego’s offense is clicking and even with their top two RBs out for this game, the Jacksonville defense still will not be able to defend Donald Brown and passing lanes will open up for a big day from Phillip Rivers.

Atlanta Falcons (2-1) at Minnesota Vikings (1-2) Sunday 4:25 PM

Jacks Pick: Falcons

Teddy Bridgewater time!  Unfortunately for Teddy Ballgame, his first start will come against the Falcons who have looked great through three games so far.  I think the Falcons offense and QB Matty Ice will be too much for the Vikings to handle.  Expect the NFL’s leading receiver Julio Jones to have a big game.

Josh’s pick: Falcons

Since the start of 2013, the Falcons are 1-8 in games outside the Georgia Dome. Those aren’t great numbers for Matt Ryan and Co heading into an outside game against Minnesota. I really want to take the Vikings, but the variability of Teddy Bridgewater’s first NFL start has me picking safe and taking the Falcons. If this game featured Adrian Peterson, I would absolutely take the Vikings, but I don’t think Matt Asiata can provide enough stability for the purple people eaters to secure a home win.

Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) at San Francisco 49ers (1-2) Sunday 4:25 PM

Jacks pick:  Eagles

This is personally the hardest game to pick for me because the Eagles are very banged up but the 49ers have not been impressive this season.  I think although the Eagles are banged up and without most of their offensive line they will find a way to win this game.  The Niners secondary has not been great and they have struggled to cover the middle of the field with FS Jimmie Ward struggling and LB Navarro Bowman out with an injury.  The Eagles should use the RB’s and TE’s in the passing game to expose the Niners defense and the Eagles D should do just enough to Keep Kaepernick at bay.  Expect a close shootout.

Josh’s pick: 49ers

There are injuries on both teams coming into this game, as three eagles starting offensive linemen will be out, and Patrick Willis may also be sitting out for San Fran. I am picking the Niners because the Eagles defense last week was atrocious, giving a big day in the air to Kirk Cousins the Skins offense. I honestly think Kirk is a better passer then Kaepernick, however Kaepernick’s scrambling ability will be problematic for the Eagles who are once again likely going to be missing their best run defender in Mychal Kendricks.  If I am the 49ers, I run the ball a lot and use play action. I could see the Eagles winning if Kaep is once again inept at passing because the 49ers secondary has dealt with problems all season long. Overall though, I think the loss of talent on the Eagles for this week ultimately costs them the game.

New Orleans Saints (1-2) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1) Sunday 8:30 PM

Jacks pick: Saints

This is the game where the Saints finally get back on track.  Drew Brees should have a huge day against the team that just gave up 340 yards to Austin Davis and 31 points to the Rams.  They will need to contain Demarco Murray and the Cowboys amazing offensive line but I think their D will step up this week.

Josh’s pick: Saints

Despite this being an away for Drew Brees, he will be playing in optimal conditions in Jerry World. The talent on the Saints offense is too much for the Cowboys to match up with on defense. I could see Demarco Murray keeping his great start to the season going rushing behind that stellar offensive line, but if this turns into a shootout, I trust the Saints offense more than the Cowboys.

New England Patriots (2-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs (2-1) Monday 8:30 PM

Jacks Pick: Patriots

This game was tough to pick because New England has not looked good at all this season and QB Tom Brady has struggled.  The Chiefs just destroyed the Dolphins and have looked good these last two weeks.  I still think that Brady is going to have his first big game of the year this week.  Also: Never bet against Brady on Monday Night.

Josh’s pick: Patriots

The Pats have played uncharacteristically terrible the first three games this season. I feel like they are going to improve each week as both sides of the ball begin to gel. The Pats also have a way of showing up for big primetime games and given the Chiefs injuries on both offense (Charles and Bowe) and defense (Johnson and Berry), I see the Pats coming out with a victory on Monday night.