Week 9 Game Picks

Josh’s Record: 79-41 - (10-5 last week)

Jack’s Record: 74-46 - (9-6 last week)

New Orleans Saints (3-4) @ Carolina Panthers (3-4-1) Thursday Night at 8:30PM

Josh’s Pick: Saints: Despite this being a road game for the Saints, I am still taking them because of a favorable matchup. Carolina’s two areas of weakness are their pass defense and their offense in general, and with the division lead on the line, and the Saints road troubles woefully noted, I think the Saints come amped up tonight fresh off a win at Green Bay. If Drew Brees can lead the Saints to more than 24 points, that should be all it takes to put away a Panthers team that has only scored 24+ twice this season and one of those games was against the Bears. In theory the Saints just have too many weapons to cover (Graham, Stills, Colston, Cooks, and now Ingram) if Brees can be a decent distributor tonight.

Jack’s Pick: This matchup of division rivals would have been a highly anticipated game last year but has lost some of its sizzle due to the struggles of the NFC South. Carolina hasn't won a game in 3 weeks (two losses and a tie) and has had their defense and offense look awful over that stretch. Saints are coming off a big bounce back game against Packers on Sunday night. I give the advantage in this game to the Saints just because the Panthers haven't given me anything to make me feel confident in them. When the offense is doing ok the defense lets them down and when the defense is doing well the offense lets them down. I see the Saints winning and ugly one. 

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7) @ Cincinnati Bengals (4-2-1) Sunday at 1PM

Josh’s Pick: Bengals: This would be quite an upset if the Jags won simply because Cincinnati is a more talented team and plays very well at home. I look for this score to be more lopsided than most this weekend, especially if AJ Green plays. However, Cincinnatti will be without their defensive leader in Vontez Burfict once again, who will be sidelined for two weeks because of a knee injury.

Jack's Pick: Bengals: Bengals had a great bounce back win over the Ravens after Steve Smith's 80 yard incredible game winning reception was called off because of a penalty. With AJ Green coming back this week their offense should look much better and get a win against the Jaguars.

  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-6) @ Cleveland Browns (4-3) Sunday at 1PM

Josh’s Pick: Cleveland: Although Cleveland has had a cupcake schedule recently (Jaguars, Raiders and now Buccaneers), they are a solid home team as they have knocked off Pittsburg and had a near win against the Ravens earlier in the season. Tampa Bay shipped off one of their starting safeties this week as well as one of their depth linebackers (not as important of a loss). I would expect some growing pains from whoever the backup is and for things not be as smooth for an already shaky pass defense. Meanwhile the Browns defense has been playing solid football, especially Tashaun Gipson who leads the NFL in interceptions. This is a game Tampa Bay can be competitive in but Mike Glennon isn’t going to play his best football against one of the better defenses in the league this week.

Jack's Pick: Cleveland: Cleveland has sort of tailed off after a fast start and they have sustained injuries up front that have slowed down their strong running game. However, I still think they are a solid team and should have no problem handling this Bucs team, especially at home.

Arizona Cardinals (6-1) @ Dallas Cowboys (6-2) Sunday at 1PM

Josh’s Pick Cardinals: This is game is exponentially easier to pick with Brandon Weeden starting in place of the injured Tony Romo. Even with Romo playing I was leaning toward picking the Cowboys simply because the Cardinals have the second best rush defense in the entire NFL. The Cards also blitz the most in the NFL and opposing quarterbacks post an average of a quarterback rating of a 74, so they blitz effectively as well as often. Murray could break 100 yards simply because he will get enough touches to do so with Branden Weeden at quarterback for the boys, although I could see his 8 game streak halting here. I believe the Cards will come with pressure to stop the run game and force Brandon Weeden into some ill-advised throws.

Jack's Pick: Cardinals: This was a very tough pick before we knew the status of Tony Romo. Now that he's out I have to pick the Cardinals. I think the Cowboys defense will have trouble with the Cardinals great group of receivers and Brandon Weeden won't be able to keep up. 

Philadelphia Eagles (5-2) @ Houston Texans (4-4) Sunday at 1PM

Josh’s Pick: Eagles: The Eagles really should have had that win last week over the Cardinals if it wasn’t for two great plays by the Cardinals offense (the Fitzgerald and John Brown 70+ TD catches). Houston is one of those teams that can handle themselves against the bottom half of the league but when they play teams with playoff potential, they walk away losing. I see this trend continuing in this inter-conference matchup and the Eagles will hopefully run shady though a rush defense that gets vulnerable to talented running backs (CJ Spiller, Fred Jackson, Le’Veon Bell, and Demarco Murray).

Jack's Pick: Eagles: Eagles fans rejoice as this week they will be getting Mychal Kendricks, Darren Sproles, and Jason Kelce back from injuries this week. Getting Kelce back should jumpstart their running game and get McCoy going. Alongside McCoy, the Texans secondary has struggled and won't be able to contain Jeremy Maclin. I think the Eagles get a good road win this week. 

Kansas City Chiefs (4-3) @ New York Jets (1-7) Sunday at 1PM

Josh’s Pick: Chiefs: If the Jets offensive game plan is anything like last week they are in for a long afternoon. The Chiefs have been playing excellent defense this season and their offense is like a well-oiled machine. The Jets will starting Michael Vick despite his three turnovers last week in relief of Geno, but at this point I think it’s the right call. The Jets have to focus on distributing the ball and not just trying to force it to their newest weapon in Percy Harvin. Sheldon Richardson also called Alex Smith a game manager, so just a little extra incentive for Smith to be even sharper this week.

Jack's Pick: Chiefs: Man the Jets have been a disaster this year, they committed a whopping 7 turnovers against the Bills and finally had to bench Geno Smith. KC should be able to force Vick to commit some turnovers and get good field position for their offense on the way to a win.

San Diego Chargers (5-3) @ Miami Dolphins (4-3) Sunday at 1PM

Josh’s Pick: Dolphins: This is my upset pick of the week and it just feels like a game Miami would win. The Dolphins defense has the potential to come alive at home, and when they click as unit they have a top 10 pass rush and can really get to the quarterback. The Dolphins are going to run the ball behind their savvy offensive line that has made Lamar Miller look ten times better than he did last season and control the pace of the game; keeping the football out of the hands of Phillip Rivers. The Chargers will be traveling to the East coast once again, and since 2005, Pacific Time zone teams are 57-54 (51.3%) against non-east coast opponents and 44-57 (43.6%) when playing away on the east coast (source: https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/nfl-west-coast-teams-traveling-east/). This isn’t a shocking difference but another small factor that could lead to a loss for San Diego.

Jack's Pick: Chargers: Miami and QB Ryan Tannehill have been under the radar good so far this season and the Chargers have slowed down with 2 straight losses after a hot start. I think Phillip Rivers will have a big game this week even though the Dolphins do have a strong secondary. 

Washington Redskins (3-5) @ Minnesota Vikings (3-5) Sunday at 1PM

Josh’s Pick: Vikings: Even with RG3 playing, I am still picking the Vikings. I think RG3 is a better start than Colt McCoy however it would be so typical Redskins if he drops this game as they head into their bye week to continue what seems to be perpetual quarterback controversy for Washington. The Vikings defense has played a lot better than then they are given credit for, as they have held opponents under 23 points with the exception of the Packers Thursday night debacle (they gave up 30 to the Patriots, but also gave up a blocked field goal for a touchdown and Cassel had turnovers). The Vikings offense quietly has the weapons to go off against a subpar defense as well (Greg Jennings, Corderelle Patterson, Jarius Wright and Jerrick McKinnon), although the Redskins defense has played well recently. This game will come down to who can more effective at quarterback and in RG3’s first game back since week 2, he could easily be a little rusty.

Jack's Pick: Redskins: This marks the end of the short but beautiful Colt McCoy era in Washington as RGIII returns to action after dislocating an ankle in week one. I think with RGIII back the Redskins offense will really come to life and get the win against Teddy and the Vikings. 

St. Louis Rams (2-5) @ San Francisco 49ers (4-3) Sunday at 4:05PM

Josh’s Pick: 49ers: The Rams have already given up over 1000 yards on the ground this season and rank 31^st in rush yards allowed per game. That is a very favorable matchup for a Niners team that loves to run the ball and is good at it. With a successful ground game, San Fran will be able to hold the pace of the game. Barring any dumb mistakes by Kaep and this should be a manageable win. The 49ers are also coming off a bye, so they should be extra ready for this one.

Jack's Pick: 49ers: I think the 49ers will win this game but I expect it to be close. Rams have been playing opponents very tough and division games are always close. I just don't trust Austin Davis to get the job done against the Niners secondary. 

Denver Broncos (6-1) @ New England Patriots (6-2) Sunday at 4:25PM

Josh’s Pick: Patriots: I have been looking forward to this game since the Patriots lost in the AFCCG a season ago. This is one of the premier games of the season and I am taking the Patriots mostly because I am a homer. In all seriousness, the Patriots can win this game if they run the ball and use the screen game early and often. Denver has one of the fiercest pass rushes in the NFL and the Pats will need to act as above to diffuse it. This also will allow the Pats to keep Manning off the field and control the game. Aqib Talib can only take out either Rob Gronkowski or Brandon LaFell, and LaFell has quietly been one of the most effective receivers in the league as Tom Brady’s quarterback rating is 124.5 when targeting him, so one will be paid less attention to (source: https://twitter.com/PFF_Steve/status/527259175882342400/photo/1). Although the Patriots will be without Chandler Jones once again, they still have the assets to cover Manning’s weapons and get to the quarterback (Browner, Revis, McCourty, Arrington, Dennard and Ryan), however I expect everyone to rotate around rather than play man to man all game. Revis might stay on Demaryius or Sanders all game though. Peyton also doesn’t have the greatest history playing in Gillete Stadium, and with forecasted snow and murky weather, the Patriots can use all the help they can get. Tom Brady has been on a role recently, coming off winning the AFC Player of the month, and if he can continue his streak of good games, this Patriots offense is for real. One reason I am worried is that the Broncos did have an extra 3 days to prepare and rest up coming off the Thursday night win against the Chargers, however traveling to New England sets the advantages even.  

Jack's Pick: Broncos: I was fully convinced that the Broncos would win but after recent news that they are playing in a snowstorm the advantage has shifted slightly. However, I think the Broncos are playing way too well right now and their offense and defense are firing on all cylinders. Tom Brady and the pats don't have enough weapons to keep up with Manning and the Broncos. 

Oakland Raiders (0-7) @ Seattle Seahawks (4-3) Sunday at 4:25PM

Josh’s Pick: Seahawks: I really don’t see any scenario where the winless Raiders go into one of the harshest atmospheres in football and scrape of out win. If the Seahawks take care of the football this should be a manageable win.

Jack's Pick: Seahawks: Oakland just can't catch a break as they are 0-7 now they get the defending Super Bowl champion. The Hawks certainly aren't as good as they were a year ago but they should get the win over Oakland especially at home. 

Baltimore Ravens (5-3) @ Pittsburg Steelers (5-3) Sunday at 8:30PM

Josh’s Pick: Steelers: This Steelers team is really hitting its stride and will be playing in its 3^rd straight home game. That much time in a routine usually works beneficially for any team, and going against a tough opponent who gave their rivalry a rare 20 point defeat earlier in the season, I believe the Iron Curtain will certainly be seeking vengeance. I think the Ravens are ultimately a better team than the Steelers and I expect this game to be very close but in the end these two teams almost always split their regular season games. The Ravens are also a notably better home team than an away team.

Jack's Pick: Ravens: These two teams have been good but tough to get a handle on. The Steelers have lost to the Browns and Bucs but just dropped 51 points on the Colts. Ravens have been one of the best teams and sport one of the highest point differentials in the league. Flacco should have success against the Steelers and I expect Steve Smith to have a big day in prime time. 

Indianapolis Colts (5-3) @ New York Giants (3-4) Sunday at 8:30PM

Josh’s Pick: Colts: Ever since Victor Cruz went out for the season, the Giants took a step back. OBJ and Randle are now Eli’s leading targets and I don’t see them being able to compete with an offense that boasts Ty Hilton, Hakeem Nicks, Reggie Wayne and Dwayne Allen, even after coming off a bye. Ahmad Bradshaw should be fired up against a team that cut him two seasons ago as well. The Giants have to have a great defensive game plan to stop this offensive juggernaut in order to win this game. 

Jack's Pick: Colts: Colts just got absolutely shredded by Big Ben and the Steelers offense but I expect them to bounce back. Andrew Luck should have a big game against a Giants D that has struggled.