Record: 0-0
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks:
Why San Francisco will win: San Francisco comes into this game with more momentum than
any team in the playoffs, having won the last two games on the road and they
are playing their best football of the year. The biggest strength of the 49ers
has been the front 7, featuring 3 pro bowl linebackers and 2 great pass rushers
in Justin Smith and Aldon Smith. They are going to need this front 7 to be on
their game Sunday as they will face off against one of the league’s best
running backs in Marshawn Lynch. Their running defense is ranked 9th in yards
per carry, allowing an average of 3.9 yards every rushing attempt. If they can
hold Lynch to 3 yards per carry they will have a huge advantage as they will
force Russell Wilson to have to create more plays. However, Russell Wilson is
no Brandon Weeden, and stopping him is not a guarantee, even though he has been
struggling mightily as of late. The 49ers have a solid pass defense, ranked 9th
by Football Outsiders in DVOA, and have held opposing QB’s to the fourth lowest
passer rating in the league. The secondary doesn’t really have a shutdown
cornerback, especially with Carlos Rogers hobbled by a hamstring injury. The
good news for the 49ers is that the Seahawks don’t really have a standout wide
receiver that needs to be shut down. I feel like the San Francisco defense will
have no problem getting stops against the Seattle offense.
The real problem for the 49ers will be
scoring on Seattle’s vaunted defense which is one of, if not the best in the
NFL. The Niners have to look to get Frank Gore going as they really don’t want
to have to rely on the passing game against the Seahawks secondary. The
Seahawks are ranked #1 in yards allowed per pass, pass DVOA, interceptions, and
basically every metric you could use to measure pass defense but the Niners do
have hope. Their receiving core is probably the best on any team not named
Denver, with Crabtree, Boldin, and Vernon Davis. Anquan Boldin is known for
having huge games in the playoffs and he has been huge for this Niners team.
The Seahawks line backing crew is not nearly as good as its secondary so they
could run into problems covering Vernon Davis as well. If the receivers can
make a few plays early, Earl Thomas will be asked to give help over the top,
opening up the middle of the field for Davis. Ultimately, passing on this
Seattle defense is not easy and for the 49ers to win they will have to
establish the run on offense and stop the Seahawks from doing the same. If this
game is kept extremely close, I like San Francisco’s chances.
Why Seattle will win: Obviously, the Seahawks get a pretty sizeable advantage
with this game being played in Seattle where they are 8-1 and have the loudest
stadium in the NFL. The Seahawks are solid at almost every single position and
have probably been the NFL’s most consistent team over the course of the
season. For Seattle to win they have to be able to stop Frank Gore. Gore may
not be electric like Lesean McCoy or as exciting as their own running back
Marshawn Lynch, but he is still key to the Niners offense. If they can force
Kaepernick to beat them through the air it is pretty much game over for the
Niners. The Seahawks also lead the league in turnover margin, forcing 28 (!!!)
interceptions this year. I could definitely see them forcing some turnovers
from the young Kaepernick, and most of the time whoever wins the turnover
battle wins the game. A matchup to watch will be Richard Sherman on Anquan
Boldin which is poised to be incredibly fun. Sherman is the best Cornerback in
the league so he will probably be able to shut down whatever receiver he
matches up against. Side note: Both
Boldin and Sherman are notorious trash talkers and known for mixing it up with
whoever they are lined up against. The thought of the NFL putting this on Mic’d
up has me giddy just thinking about it.
Russell Wilson is a very exciting quarterback
with great mobility, but as the season has worn on he has been mediocre as a
passer. Wilson had only (106) yards against the Saints defense in the
divisional round and except for one great throw down the sideline to Doug
Baldwin, he didn’t make that many good throws either. The Seahawks biggest
weakness has been the offensive line and if Russell is running for his life the
entire game they probably won’t be able to move the ball through the air. If
they don’t establish the run game, the talented pass rushers on the Niners will
be able to pin their ears back and rush at Wilson every snap. If Lynch gets
going the pass rushers will start to focus on him which opens up the play
action passing game and will help keep Wilson from getting sacked. If they can
do this, they will be able to put up some points on the 49ers defense.
Final Verdict: These teams are so close it is almost impossible to
predict a winner, but I’m going to give a slight edge to the Seahawks and their
12th man. This game will feature both running backs very heavily and I think
Marshawn Lynch will play better than Frank Gore. If Seattle can get a two score
lead I think they will be able to pull it out because I don’t trust Kaepernick
to beat the Seahawks with the pass and catch up.
Final Score: Seattle 24 San Francisco 17
Bold Prediction: Richard Sherman pick 6.
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