Divisional Round

(Josh Fyffe) My Record:
Last Week (3-1), Overall (3-1)

New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks:

Winner: New Orleans Saints
Reasoning: This was by far my toughest pick of the week to make, and as much as I really want to pick Seattle, I just can’t. The illusion of the unbeatable 12^th man was shattered in week 16 by Arizona and ever since I haven’t viewed Seattle in the same way. I really think Rob Ryan coaches another great defensive game, as he did an incredible job against offensive mastermind Chip Kelly’s Eagles, who boasted the 2^nd best offense in the NFL. The Saints defense held the Eagles (who lead the NFL in rushing) to 80 rushing yards on 22 attempts, averaging under 4 yards a carry. I definitely view LeSean McCoy above Marshawn Lynch, and I believe that the Saints can shut down the run again on the road. The defense also held second year phenom Nick Foles to under 200 yards passing and sacked him a handful of times. The Saints have two great edge pass rushers in Cameron Jordan and Junior Gallete, as they were the only two teammates in the entire NFL to have over 12 sacks each in the regular season. Those two edge rushers will be a huge advantage against the Seahawks, as notable running pro-bowl quarterback Russell Wilson will need to be contained if the Saints want to win this game. Wilson though has struggled as of late in the season, having a TD to interception ratio of 3-3 in three game streak in December as well as not throwing for more than 206 yards in any of those games.

              The main reason I am taking the Saints in this game is because I believe that the Saints offense is far better than the Seattle offense, even with the now healthy Percy Harvin. This will definitely be a defensive game and barring multiple bad turnovers by the Saints, I really feel that Drew Brees and the Saints offense can crack the incredible and highly rated defense of the Seattle Seahawks more than the Seahawks can crack the Saints well coached defense. I also feel like Mark Ingram will have another big game as he is finally starting to develop into the player a lot of people thought he would be (see Marshawn Lynch’s career). Ingram will have to sport a big day on the ground (well big in terms of the Seattle defense, so like 90 yards or more on 20 touches) to give Brees some help against the best secondary in the NFL. So really this pick is a result of my lack of confidence in the Seattle offense against quality level opponents.

Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots:

Winner: New England Patriots

Reasoning: That was an incredible comeback by the Indianapolis Colts and they exhibited incredible mental toughness, never counting themselves out of the game and that can be the most important intangibles to have on an NFL team. However, I believe the momentum doesn’t even carry over to the next week for Colts, as I’m sure Bill Belichick will not make the same terrible coaching mistakes that Kansas City did.

              When you look at the Colts key players on offense, outside of the excellent second year quarterback Andrew Luck, they really only have two upper tier players; TY Hilton and Coby Fleener. The Colts were able to make their comeback last week because somehow the Chiefs didn’t game plan for TY Hilton, which is really the only player you have to eliminate on this offense to make them vulnerable. The Patriots have already started practicing with the game plan of eliminating TY, and although I myself am very high on the young wide out, when the Patriots want to take someone out of a game, they do it very well. If the Patriots match Alfonzo Dennard (who is their fastest cornerback) up on Hilton, with safety help, look for Aqib Talib to man up against Fleener. Talib had a down second half of the season due to a lingering hip problem, but with the bye week to heal, look for him to be back near 100%.  When Talib was healthy this year, he held out arguably the best tightend in football, Jimmy Graham, catchless throughout the game, and actually forced an interception. With both of Luck’s top two targets well game-planned for, I predict it will be hard for him to get a good rhythm in this game.

              The achilles heel of this New England Patriot defense this year has been the run game, and losing Brandon Spikes this last week to a knee injury hurts them even more. Look for Dane Fletcher (number 52) to step up and have a nice game in his place. Fletcher has always impressed me when he has gotten his opportunities to play for the Patriots and would have been a possible starter on this team a year ago if he hadn’t been placed on injured reserve during the end of preseason. He is a run blitzer, so look for him to making a lot of plays that Brandon Spikes would usually account for. However, the Colts haven’t exactly impressed this year with their backfield, ranking 20^th this year in rush yards per game. Donald Brown will really have to step up and show that he can be a quality starter in this league if the Colts want to have a legitimate shot of winning this ball game.

              Another reason why I believe the Patriots will win; the Indianapolis defense did have a good season defending the pass, ranking 13^th in total pass yards allowed, however they were bitten by the injury bug in the last three games, having three cornerbacks deal with injuries, including their top CB Vontae Davis, who has been dealing with a groin problem. These injuries were evident last week, as Alex Smith looked like a top QB, torching the Colts for 363 yards, 4 TDs and no interceptions (however he did fumble). The Patriots though, can run the ball better now than any other Brady team in recent memory, so the balance in their offensive attack can make it hard for the Colts to exactly game-plan as to what the Patriots’ offensive strategy will be (aside from being balanced). The Colts only major impact defensive player would be Robert Mathis, who led the NFL in sacks, so he can definitely be an x-factor in this game. Look for a lot of Patriot running backs coming out of the backfield to assist offensive linemen in pass protection by chipping Mathis throughout the game.

              Despite the heavy advantage I appear to be giving New England, I still expect a close game, as the NFL playoffs have not disappointed this season and you never know how many mistakes or uncharacteristic plays each team makes, but I still like New England undoubtedly.

San Francisco 49ers @ Carolina Panthers:

Winner: Carolina Panthers
Reasoning: These two teams are very similarly built, flaunting excellent defenses with some of the game’s best line backers (Navarro Bowman and Patrick Willis from the Niners, and Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis for the Panthers) as well as offenses based around the running game. However, this game will evidently come down to who can execute in the passing game, as I believe all of the aforementioned linebackers will be able minimalize the effectiveness of their opponents run game, as both defenses have been able to do all season long. The reason why I take the Panthers over the 49ers, is simply on the merit that I believe Cam Newton is a more polished passer than 49ers’ quarterback, Colin Kaepernick. Newton (3379 yards, 24 TDs, 13 Ints, and a 61.7% completion percentage) posted a better season than Kaepernick (3197 yards, 21 TDs, 8 Ints, and a 58.4% completion percentage), and Kaepernick had better offensive weapons (Vernon Davis, Anquan Boldin, and pro-bowl running back Frank Gore compared to Deangelo Williams, Steve Smith and Greg Olsen). Kaepernick showed last week against the Packers that he can’t win a game with his arm, while Cam has put together multiple game winning drives this year strictly by passing. However, I would like to point out that in my opinion, Kaepernick is the best runner at quarterback averaging 5.7 yards per carry this season on nearly 100 attempts, and won last week’s playoff game based off his running ability. I don’t think we see that happen this week though, as he posted his worst rushing day of the season (only 16 yards) against Carolina earlier this year. I don’t think  Cam will be able to run the ball effectively either, outside of short yardage situations, as San Francisco’s well coached and talented defense will be contain him throughout the game.

However, despite the lack of offensive weapons for Carolina, I have them beating the 49ers in an equally matched contest, because the game will come down too which quarterback can be the most accurate on the big stage. I will gladly take Cam (and 20 other quarterbacks for that matter) over Colin Kaepernick in that matchup. Side note: I would like to state that I think both of these quarterbacks are given way too much praise for their team’s success, and that both quarterbacks would post .500 records if they were on teams that didn’t have top 5 defenses.

San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos:

Winner: San Diego Chargers

Reasoning: Again, I am taking the Chargers on the road to win another unlikely game. I was a lot more confident in their winning probability last week over the Bengals though because Andy Dalton is Andy Dalton. Peyton Manning obviously won’t make the same type of mistakes that Dalton made last week, however the offense itself could, and that’s why I am picking the Chargers. To further explain; in an interview with John Elway on NFL insiders, Elway stated that what the Chargers did right in both their meetings (as they held Denver to under 30 points both times, which only one other team was able to do all season) against Denver was limit the time of possession that Denver had the ball. The Chargers actually lead the league in time of possession, a factor that can hurt a lot of pass heavy teams in the NFL, as it can limit the number of scoring chances per game. Now, in the interview Elway said that is something Denver is going to try to change. This is completely an assumption I am making on the basis of his comments, but I believe Denver will do the one thing it shouldn’t do, and rely a decent amount on the run game. If Denver doesn’t put the ball into Manning’s hands at least 40 times to drop back and pass, that is a huge mistake by the offensive coordinators on Denver (unless they roar out to a large lead, and then they should play the clock in the 4^th quarter). Manning, despite being a textbook choker, really can’t screw up this year with all of the weapons around him, unless the offensive game-plan is taken out of his hands to counteract the San Diego game plan of controlling the clock. If the Broncos do end up running it more than they usually do and completely over-think the game, then they are shooting themselves in the foot by not using there 5 best healthy players (Manning, D. Thomas, J. Thomas, Welker, and Decker).

              Another reason why I think San Diego gets the upset; look at the other side of the ball in Denver. Despite having by far the best offensive attack in the league, they have one of the worst 5 defenses in football, and they just lost their best defensive player, Von Miller, for the season two games ago. The Chargers did not exactly have a wonderful offensive outing against the Bengals, but did manage to hang 27 on a very talented and top ten statistical defense. I really don’t see Denver’s defense stopping San Diego often, so if the Broncos decide to take the ball of Manning’s hands and put it into Moreno’s it really limits their scoring ability. I see the Chargers winning, and continuing their improbable run, as Manning yet again suffers his routine one-and-done. Side note: Aside from New England, Manning has more losses to the Chargers than any other football team with 6 career losses in 14 meetings (Manning has 12 career losses to New England).