Conference Championship

By: Josh Fyffe
Record: 4-4
Last Week: 1-3

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks

Winner: San Francisco

Reasoning: I picked against the 49ers the last two weeks due to my lack of confidence in Colin Kaepernick, and he hasn’t really proved me wrong. He throws a large majority of passes off target and leaves a lot of plays on the field. However, I have come to realize that as long as he doesn’t implode, the 49ers are too good at every other position to compete in any game with any team. Whether Kaepernick was on or off target, his wide receivers were bailing out the offense with some incredible catches and definitely gave Kaep a better stat line than he deserved. The game against the Panthers was closer than most people would expect given the final score. Both teams played a close contest; the difference was what each team did inside the three yard line. The Panthers were arguably the best short yardage team in football this year, and with seven attempts inside the three yard line of the 49ers, they came away with only three points. Both stands were quite impressive by that quality front seven that the 49ers boast. This win also gives 49ers their third road win against a quality opponent (Cardinals, Packers, and now Panthers), so I like their momentum being carried into this game, despite playing against the most famous crowd in football.

              These teams are very equal in my opinion. They have the top 1 and 2 defenses in terms of talent and are very well coached as units. The 49ers have a better front seven than Seattle, having three pro bowl linebackers, and two pro bowl caliber linemen (Justin Smith and Aldon Smith). However, the Hawks match the Niners for talent in the front seven with their defensive backs. Seattle has the best shutdown corner in the league in Richard Sherman and the best safety in pro football in Earl Thomas. They also have Kam Chancellor who matches up very well one-on-one with opposing tight ends given his large size at the safety position. The Seahawks definitely have the weapons to shut down this 49er offense, however I believe the likely hood of Seattle’s offense being shut down is greater.

              As I stated earlier, the 49ers held the best short yardage run team in football (Carolina) to three points on seven chances inside the three yard line. Although I was very impressed with how well he played last week, I believe this talented front seven can shut down Beast Mode to a reasonable level, maybe 95 yards on 25+ carries. And with Lynch not being able to get it going on the ground, we will see another dud performance by Russell Wilson as he will extend his bad game streak against quality level defenses. Last week the offense was incapable of closing the game out when they had at least two chances to do so. On the third attempt they were finally able to convert and put the game virtually away, but it was mainly due to their dominance on defense.

              Last week we also saw a very dominant offensive line for San Francisco. The Panthers have a very talented front seven as well, and the 49ers O-line was able to get a lot of penetration on run plays. If they can repeat that against another talented front seven in Seattle, this game will be won handedly.

              I would lastly like to point out that I think the quarterbacks of these teams are equally as bad and receive way to much credit for their team’s success. Kaepernick only will appear better because of the talent he has catching the ball. I am more of a fan of Wilson though, and despite picking against Seattle I will be definitely rooting for them this Sunday.

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos

Winner: Denver Broncos

Reasoning: As a diehard New England fan this is going to painstaking to write, but the Broncos are too talented on offense and matchup very well against the Patriots for the Pats to steal this one on the road. Last week we witnessed Denver’s defense play amazing football, really shutting down the chargers game plan of running the football. As of late what has been New England’s game plan? Running the football. Denver’s defense ranked 8^th against the run this season in terms of yards allowed per game (but those numbers are a bit inflated as 50% of the teams didn’t run the ball in the second half to try to catch up to Denver’s double digit lead). However, what is not inflated is their average yard per carry allowed, which is 3.9. If they can hold Blount to under four yards per carry, that alone will be a huge contribution to a likely victory for Denver. The easiest way to beat Denver is to control the clock, because although their weakness is pass defense, you aren’t going to win a shootout against a team with Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Julius Thomas, and Eric Decker.

The Patriots defense on the other hand was gashed by the run all season, allowing almost 5 yards per carry and was the third worst rushing defense in the entire league. So not only can the Broncos succeed because of their excellence in the passing game, but they also have a large advantage on the ground too, as they do have a decent offensive line and a 1000 yard rusher in Moreno.

              For the Patriots to win, they have to get as lucky as they were in these teams’ first meeting and be able to create four turnovers and maybe be a little luckier and don’t fumble the football on the first three drives.  This is the only way they can match Manning in a shootout. My bet is the Broncos will be heavily playing the run, so if Brady can come out slinging it, I think it will give the Patriots a much better chance to win, because in the second half the Broncos will have to defend the pass more and big lanes will open up thanks to the talented run-blocking offensive line and Legarette Blount.

              For the Broncos to win, they just have to take care of the football and air it out all game long. The Patriots pass defense may be as overrated as they come and there are really big holes in coverage every game. The Broncos have so much talent that can get open and will have playmakers running wide all day long. As long as Peyton doesn’t choke or they don’t fumble any punts, kickoffs, or runs – I suspect the Broncos will take the home win and head on to the Super Bowl.

              However, if I were to put a percentage on it, I would say the Broncos only have 60% chance of winning, which may be lower than my post implied.