Week 16 NFL Game Picks

Josh's Record (156-67) - (2-1 so far this week) 

Jack's Record (131-75) - (2-1 so far this week)

Minnesota Vikings (6-8) @ Miami Dolphins (7-7) at 1PM on Sunday

Josh’s Pick: Dolphins

Despite losing their last two games against AFC playoff opponents (the Ravens and the Patriots), I like Miami being able to take advantage of a young Vikings team. Miami struggles most against the run and Minnesota won’t be able to utilize that as Matt Asiata will be the lead back again for the purple people eaters. Bridgewater should have another modest game that shows his potential but ultimately the Miami pass rush will be able to create big plays for the ‘Fins defense and hand Miami the home win.

Jack’s Pick: Dolphins

Following back to back losses, the Dolphins are essentially out of the playoff race in the AFC.  I still think they will beat Minnesota because they are playing at home where their pass rush excels and it will be able to bother young QB Teddy Bridgewater.  

Baltimore Ravens (9-5) @ Houston Texans (7-7) at 1PM on Sunday

Josh’s Pick: Ravens

The Ravens exhibited offensive struggles last week against a 2-12 Jaguars team that ultimately came down to the final drive of the game. I would be slightly concerned as a Ravens fan as the ground game looked inept most of the afternoon, but I look for Justin Forsett and Bernard Pierce to pick some more yards up this week against a Texans defense that sporadically struggles against the run. Arian Foster should be the focal point of the offense for the Texans, as Case Keenum will be starting for Houston. That plays well to the strength of the Ravens defense who loves stopping the run with rookies Timmy Jernigan and CJ Mosely. The Ravens have had a poor pass defense since DB Jimmy Smith went out for a season and I don’t see the Texans being able to expose that in Keenum’s first start of the season, so I am taking the Ravens.

Jack’s Pick: Ravens

This is a huge game for the Ravens as the team that is one game ahead of them in the division race, the Bengals, have the Broncos coming up, so a win today and a Bengals loss can help the Ravens a lot when it comes to playoff position.  It could also greatly help America by not making us watch Andy Dalton implode in the postseason for the 4^th straight year.  I think the Ravens will win this one on the road to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Detroit Lions (10-4) @ Chicago Bears (5-9) at 1PM on Sunday

Josh’s Pick: Lions

When these two teams played earlier on Thanksgiving the Bears had no answer for Calvin Johnson as he was wide open on seemingly every ball thrown his way. I don’t think they will have an answer for him again, and even if they do that leaves a lot of opportunities open for Golden Tate and their squad of tightends. Jimmy Clausen will also be getting the start for the Bears and although his play is a variable, I am airing on the side of caution and trusting a Lions secondary that has made plays and turnovers all season long.

Jack’s Pick: Lions

I don’t know what shows that your team has hit the basement more: starting Jimmy Clausen in week 16 or paying Jay Cutler 15 million guaranteed next year.  I think this will be a repeat of thanksgiving and the Lions will come out and feast on the young secondary of the Bears en route to an easy win.

Cleveland Browns (7-7) @ Carolina Panthers (5-8-1) at 1PM on Sunday

Josh’s Pick: Panthers

I’m not ready to write Johnny Manziel off but that was a terrible first start for the rookie. Cam Newton returns to action at home this week after coming back from his car accident back injury. I look for Cam to provide the Panthers with enough of a spark to overcome a nulled Cleveland offense and stay alive in the NFC South title race (with a win and a Saints loss, they would lead the NFC South heading into week 17). So motivation has a lot to do with why I am taking the Panthers.

Jack’s Pick: Panthers

If there is a defense that Johnny Football would benefit the most from playing right now it might be the Panthers, or it is at least located in the NFC South.  I think the Panthers win this one but Johnny will at least have some success and show some flashes of what he could potentially be. 

Atlanta Falcons (5-9) @ New Orleans Saints (6-8) at 1PM on Sunday

Josh’s Pick: Saints

Atlanta took the first divisional game back in week 1 and I look for the Saints to respond by winning on their home turf, something they have abnormally struggled with the ladder half of this season. I believe Drew Brees knows how to win big games and I think he comes through and has a masterful performance against a subpar Falcons defense. I think Matt Ryan has a great game as well but Brees gets the edge from a fired up home crowd. If the Saints win, they have full control of the NFC South going into week 17.

Jack’s Pick: Saints

I think New Orleans will win this game and get an advantage on securing a HOME PLAYOFF GAME AT 6-10 OR 7-9, while my eagles are going to go 10-6 and miss the playoffs.  No I’m not bitter whatsoever. 

Green Bay Packers (10-4) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-12) at 1PM on Sunday

Josh’s Pick: Packers

I want to say this one could be close but I don’t see it happening. Even though Rodgers isn’t nearly as great on the road as he is at home, there is no way he has back to back weeks where he plays the worst two single games of his career. I look for the receivers to have sharper hands this week as well (as they usually do) and for the Packers to bounce back in a big-positive way in Tampa.

Jack’s Pick: Packers

This game really shouldn’t be much of a contest as Tampa would benefit much more from losing this game for a high draft pick and GB is looking for a number one seed.  Also I like Rodgers against this secondary all day.

Kansas City Chiefs (8-6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (9-5) at 1PM on Sunday

Josh’s Pick: Steelers

I really like this matchup for the Steelers as the Chiefs really struggle against the rush, ranking 28^th in rush defense. The strength of the Chiefs defense is their pass defense accompanied by their pass rush which I look for the Steelers to diffuse with quick passes to Le’Veon Bell in flat as well as screens to Antonio Brown. The weakness of the Steelers defense is their secondary and I don’t see Alex Smith and the often criticized Chiefs receiving corps to be able to take advantage of Ike Taylor, Cortez Allen, and William Gay. This game has major playoff implications in the AFC so it is definitely one to watch.

Jack’s Pick: Chiefs

This game is an absolute must win for both teams if they want to stay alive in the playoff race.  KC is now technically 3^rd in the division with SD’s comeback win over SF yesterday so they need a win to keep their chances alive.  I think they will beat the Steelers and my bold prediction is that in week 16 the Chiefs will finally have a WR score a TD.

New England Patriots (11-3) @ New York Jets (3-11)

Josh’s Pick: Patriots

The Jets played the Patriots about as well as they could have in their previous Thursday night matchup earlier this year, and I look for the Patriots to respond as if they had lost the game. The Patriots know that they have to win out (or hope for a Denver loss) to retain the number one seed in the AFC and have the playoffs go through Gillete.  Knowing this, I think Tom Brady has a great day through the air and picks a part a Jets secondary that has been victimized all season long by opposing quarterbacks. The Jets will have to run the ball often and successfully, like they did in their previous match up, to have a chance in this one.

Jack’s Pick: Patriots

New England is looking for that number one seed to secure home field advantage throughout the playoffs which may secure them a trip to the superbowl with how dominant they have been at home.  Jets should just continue to #SuckForTheDuck and lose this game so they can remove whatever is left of Geno Smith and Mike Vick from the starting QB position.

New York Giants (5-9) @ St. Louis Rams (6-8)

Josh’s Pick: Rams

The Rams have played solid football the second half of this season with some very credible wins on their “resume.” I honestly see this game going either way, but I am having confidence in the Rams pass rush to disrupt Eli Manning enough to have him make some costly turnovers. This game has no playoff implications but the Rams are always a fun team to watch, as is Giants rookie Odell Beckham Jr. (OBJ) who could be in for another big game as the Rams don’t really have a corner to shut him down (I feel like he would torch Janoris Jenkins on some plays). If the Rams can somewhat contain OBJ then I believe they win this football game.

Jack’s Pick:

Buffalo Bills (8-6) @ Oakland Raiders (2-12)

Josh’s Pick: Bills

Oakland has two wins this year, the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Fransisco 49ers who are two credible teams in the NFL, so no game is truly out of reach for them. However, arguably no team had a better week 15 then the Buffalo Bills who gave Aaron Rodgers the worst outing of his career and by far of this season. In week 14 the Bills also snapped Peyton Manning’s consecutive TD record and played them close all day long. Although this could be a trap game for Buffalo and it could be close (1-2 score game), they are one of the hottest team in football vying for a spot in the playoffs and I don’t see them faltering against an inferior opponent.

Jack’s Pick: Buffalo

Buffalo is coming off a very impressive win over the Packers and have been the first team to stop Aaron Rodgers since the famous r-e-l-a-x press conference.  I see them picking up an easy win today on their road to going 10-6 and missing the playoffs, Bills fans you can join Eagles fans at the bar. 

Indianapolis Colts (10-4) @ Dallas Cowboys (9-5)

Josh’s Pick: Colts

I am big on the Cowboys band wagon this season as a legitimate team but they have struggled at home this season and this game isn’t exactly a must win for them (although it puts the pressure off til next week if they lose). The Colts lead the NFL in passing offense while the Cowboys are 23^rd in defending the pass. The Colts have a completely middle of the road defense but Vontae Davis matches up as well as a corner could against Dez Bryant (I still expect Dez to win some of those matchups). The Cowboys can win if they grind Demarco Murray and control the clock but that is also unlikely as Murray will be playing hampered with a broken hand. Even with minimal time Andrew Luck is still dangerous and can put points up fast so I am expecting somewhat of a shootout and an exciting game to watch. Dallas is also 7-0 on the road but only 2-5 on their home turf which is not exactly the record you want heading into a home game against a strong opponent in week 16.

Jack’s Pick: Cowboys

With a win today the Cowboys will secure the NFC East division crown and a playoff spot.  Indy really has nothing to play for because they already clinched the division and have almost 0 chance of catching the Pats for a number one seed.  So the Cowboys should sadly lock this one up.

Seattle Seahawks (10-4) @ Arizona Cardinals (11-3)

Josh’s Pick: Seahawks

I don’t know who I would rather have win this game, but Seattle is going to win it. Whether Ryan Lindley or Logan Thomas starts, the Seahawks defense will overwhelm them on the road as they have been playing their best football in the recent weeks. Russell Wilson and the ‘Hawks offense won’t exactly look pretty but it will be enough to scrape out the road win for the defending champs. If the Seahawks win this week they also claim the number one seed in the NFC.

Jack’s Pick: Cardinals

If the Cardinals somehow pull this win off with 0 running game and Ryan Lindley starting at QB I would start investigating to see if there is evidence of wizardry happening in Arizona.  I think the Cardinals will be barely able to move the ball in this game and could easily be shut out by the Seahawks D.

Denver Broncos (10-4) @ Cincinnati Bengals (9-4-1)

Josh’s Pick: Broncos

I love picking against the Broncos but I don’t have enough confidence in the Bengals to do it this week even at home. Peyton has to have an off game for the Bengals to win this one, as Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders should have some open targets as the Denver offense creates open players with the amount of talent the team possesses. Aqib Talib also lines up beautifully wit AJ Green and I have way more confidence in the Denver defense (also with Ware, Miller, and Ward) to win this game for the Broncos then I do in the Denver offense. Andy Dalton also sputters in big games, and I look for this to be the week that the Bengals finally lose the lead they have in the AFC North.

Jack’s Pick: Broncos

I don’t have faith in Andy Dalton being able to outplay Peyton Manning on Monday night even if it is in Cincy.  I think Manning will have a big day against the Bengals secondary.  Also, the Broncos have been incredibly tough against the run this year which takes away the biggest weapon the Bengals have on offense so the Broncos should be able to win this one.