Week 14 NFL Game Picks

Josh’s Record: (132-60) – Last Week (8-8)

Jack’s Record: (123-69) – Last Week (12-4)

Pittsburg Steelers (7-5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (8-3-1) at 1PM on Sunday

Josh’s Pick: Bengals

As much as I want to take the Steelers, their stock dropped a lot last week when their defense gave up a big day to Drew Brees and the Saints passing attack on the road. The holes in their secondary give a lot of room for Dalton, AJ Green, Mohamed Sanu and Co. to put in an efficient day. This is a critical matchup in the AFC North and wildcard race, so I could see the Steelers gutting it out, but with Vontez Burfict easing his way back into the Bengals defensive front seven, Cincy may be able to shut down Bell; to an extent, giving Dalton more opportunities on offense.

Jack’s Pick: Bengals
I have gone back and forth on this pick many times because both of these teams are so inconsistent.  This game totally depends on what Andy Dalton will show up, is it going to be the one who faced Cleveland or will he actually be able to make some plays against Pittsburgh’s weak secondary.  Ultimately, I don’t think Pittsburgh has a CB that can match up with AJ Green and he will be a mismatch all day long.  Bengals win this one at home and increase their AFC North lead.

St. Louis Rams (5-7) @ Washington Redskins (3-9) at 1PM on Sunday

Josh’s Pick: Rams

Rams are playing as one of the hottest teams in football last week, and are coming off one of the NFL’s more dominant wins of the season (granted it was over the Raiders). The Redskins are still not even a midlevel team with Colt at quarterback, but this game has a potential to be close as the Skins do have the offensive talent to make the game competitive. A subplot for this game is the RG3 trade was done between these two teams.

Jack’s pick: Rams
The St. Louis Rams are a legitimately good team, they just took too long to figure it out and now have no shot at making the playoffs.  Last week they blew out the Raiders 52-0 and two weeks before that they held Peyton Manning’s Broncos to 7 points.  I think they will handle the Redskins who are amidst a horrible QB controversy and are struggling mightily recently.  Also they will be without their best receiver Desean Jackson so I think the Rams should be able to take this one easily.

New York Giants (3-9) @ Tennessee Titans (2-10) at 1PM on Sunday

Josh’s Pick: Giants

Was close to picking the Jags last week over the Giants but didn’t have the confidence in Bortles. At this moment in time I would rather have Mettenberger starting for me, however the Titans don’t really have the consistent weapons on offense or defense to make me want to take them in this matchup. The Titans secondary was torched for six TDs last week by Ryan Fitzpatrick, so Eli and ODB could put something similar together.

Jack’s pick: Giants
These two teams have not been playing well as of late, the Titans have lost their last 6 games and the Giants have lost their last 7.  I give this one to the Giants because they have much stronger skill position players with a healthy Rashad Jennings this week.  Tennessee’s pass rush isn’t strong enough where the Giants horrendous offensive line should be too much of an issue.  They will give Eli a little time to throw and he will be able to take advantage of it on the way to ending their 7 game losing streak.

Carolina Panthers (3-8-1) @ New Orleans Saints (5-7) at 1PM on Sunday

Josh’s Pick: Saints

The Saints won this matchup earlier this season on a not-so-great Thursday night game, snapping their road losing streak. I have no doubt that they will handle themselves against Carolina, who is still showing to be one of the worst overall teams in the NFL. I believe Brees will have another big week against the Panthers below average secondary; hopefully the Panthers don’t allow two blocked punts for TDs in this one.

Jack’s pick: Saints
The much maligned NFC South finally gained some street cred with two out of division wins last week.  The Saints have started to play much better as of late and need a win to gain an advantage on the Falcons who are probably going to lose on Monday to the Packers.  Carolina has been absolutely horrendous this year and has no running game, no receivers, no offensive line and no defense.  Basically they have just Cam Newton and that is not going to be enough to beat the Saints.  I think the Saints win this one by 20+ points.

New York Jets (2-10) @ Minnesota Vikings (5-7) at 1PM on Sunday

Josh’s Pick: Vikings

The Vikings are a more consistent Teddy Bridgewater and good running game away from being a legitimate opponent each and every week. Their defense has been stout all season long with the exception of one Green Bay game earlier this season and that was on a Thursday night. I love the match up of Anthony Barr, Everson Griffen and the Vikings defense against a Jets offense that has been one of the worst and most inconsistent in Football. However, it would be a typical Jets move to win and get a worse draft pick.

Jack’s pick: Vikings
The Jets basically choked away a win at home against the Dolphins last week in the most unwatchable Monday night game in recent memory.  Vikings just killed the Panthers at home and I think they will pick up a win against the Jets too.  Minnesota has quietly had a top 15 defense this season and I think they will completely shut down whatever is left of the Jets offense.  Dominance on defense is going to bring Minnesota their 6th win of the year.

Baltimore Ravens (7-5) @ Miami Dolphins (7-5) at 1PM on Sunday

Josh’s Pick: Ravens

With Terrell Suggs coming back I think this Ravens defense gains a big boost after coming off a deflating loss to San Diego at home last week. The Dolphins were able to edge by the Jets, sealing the game with an interception on the final drive of the game. I think the Ravens bounce back in typical Harbaugh fashion and show that they deserve a playoff seed with a dominant win over the Dolphins. When the Ravens play the defense they are capable of they are one of the best teams and dark horses of the AFC.

Jack’s pick: Dolphins
This game is very close as these two teams are pretty much equally matched.  Baltimore has better weapons in the receiving game but the Dolphins have a much better defense.  I think the Ravens are really going to miss Haloti Ngata in this game as a run stopping presence against the 10th ranked Dolphins rushing offense.  Miami also has a great pass rush especially when they play at home so I think they will be able to get to Flacco and force some mistakes from the pressure they generate.  Miami will help themselves greatly with a win today and get closer to getting a wildcard spot.

Indianapolis Colts (8-4) @ Cleveland Browns (7-5) at 1PM on Sunday

Josh’s Pick: Colts

This a must win game for Cleveland and I don’t think they pull through. Hoyer has played poorly his last few outings tossing five interceptions in his last two games, and 1 TD in his last four games (granted in one of those matchups they had a lot of goal-line rushing touchdowns). I don’t see the Cleveland offense being able to keep up with Colts offense throughout the course of the game. The Redskins had a strip sack and a pick in their first two defensive series against the Colts last week and still ended up losing by two scores. At this point in the season I trust Andrew Luck against a decent defense than Hoyer against a middle of the road defense.

Jack’s pick: Colts
 Cleveland has very much regressed over the last few weeks after the loss of center Alex Mack.  They had a great running game behind a very powerful interior line and that set up the play action in the passing game which the Browns used the second most in the NFL.  Now that the running game isn’t working the play action goes with it and they are having trouble scoring points.  I think Luck and the Colts will walk all over the Browns and grab a win on the road.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-10) @ Detroit Lions (8-4) at 1PM on Sunday

Josh’s Pick: Lions

Detroit played well against the Bears last week which was to be expected, and the Bucs are coming off a crushing loss that really should have been a win for them over the Bengals. The Bucs seem to play a lot of teams close so I wouldn’t be surprised if this is a one score game for a majority of the day. Josh McCown isn’t the most mobile quarterback and he doesn’t have great pocket presence, so I could see Suh, Fairley, Mosely, Ansah, and Co getting after the quarterback and causing some arrant throws. I am picking the Lions based on their defense, not their revered offense.

 Jack’s pick: Lions
The Lions have to win this game if they want to stay alive in the playoff race now that the packers have the lead in the division.  I think they should be able to get the win and their first ranked defense should be able to hold the Bucs.  I think they will have problems with rookie WR Mike Evans as he has been on fire recently and you can’t double him with Vincent Jackson’s presence on the other side of the field.  The combination of Detroit’s passing and defense should be able to get them a win to move to 9-4 and move to 9-4 and get closer to a playoff spot.

Houston Texans (6-6) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10) at 1PM on Sunday

Josh’s Pick: Houston

Fitzpatrick came in last week and showed he can lead this offense to success, throwing six touchdown passes against the Titans. The Jags have a slightly better defense, but the way Fitz gelled with the offense and Deandre Hopkins in his first game back is a good sign for this offense moving forward. I trust Houston’s offense over Jacksonville’s despite the Jags coming off the win last week.

Jack’s pick: Texans
The Jaguars are feeling good after coming back from 21 down against the Giants last week and the Texans had a blowout win over their division rival Titans last week.  Blake Bortles has struggled this year in large part because they haven’t had much of an offensive line and JJ Watt is going to absolutely feast this week.  I could honestly see him getting 4+ sacks today going against the Jaguars line.  I think Watt’s presence as a rusher will shut down anything the Jaguars have on offense and lead to a Texans win.

Buffalo Bills (7-5) @ Denver Broncos (9-3) at 4:05PM on Sunday

Josh’s Pick: Denver

Denver dismantled Kansas City in a game that many, including myself, thought would be close or a Chiefs win. Manning showed his offensive struggles were more of an outlier to their team and not a norm, and Von Miller/Demarcus Ware look as dangerous as ever. Buffalo strength is their run defense, so that is a mismatch in favor of Denver, who can happily take crappy run plays because of the explosiveness of their passing attack. I also like Denver at home, where they are undefeated this year.

Jack’s pick: Denver
Buffalo has been playing well recently and their front seven is strong enough to give the Broncos problems but I just don’t see any situation where Kyle Orton comes in and outduels Peyton Manning.  Denver’s edge rushing duo of Von Miller and Demarcus Ware are going to be able to get pressure on Orton, something that he doesn’t handle well.  This game is also at home in Denver so that is another advantage for the Broncos and I think they win this game easily.

Kansas City Chiefs (7-5) @ Arizona Cardinals (9-3) at 4:05PM on Sunday

Josh’s Pick: Cardinals

The Cardinals offense (and Defense last week) have been major struggles on this team in their two game losing spout. I do see a bounce back game from their secondary, where the Chiefs biggest receiving threat is Jamaal Charles or Travis Kelce. I think the Cardinals will stop the run early, as they did with Dallas earlier this season, then rely on big plays from their talented defense to set up some scores on offense. Fitzgerald should also be playing this week, and he is a huge component of this offense that this team has been missing.

Jack's pick: Chiefs
The Cardinals offense is horrendous and I don't think they are going to be able to make up for it on defense.  They currently have the worst rushing offense and couldn't move the ball on Atlanta's last ranked rushing offense last week, they also have Drew Stanton as their QB who isn't exactly going to be shredding secondaries.  They have great CB's but Kansas City doesn't even use their wide receivers so it shouldn't be as much of an issue for the Chiefs.  I think Jamaal Charles will run his way to a Chiefs win.

Seattle Seahawks (8-4) @ Philadelphia Eagles (9-3) at 4:25PM on Sunday

Josh’s Pick: Seattle

The Eagles have yet to lose a game on their home turf since the Saints knocked them out of the playoffs in the first round last year, however I do think they drop this one to the defending champs. The Seahawks are coming in playing much improved football from the middle of the season and seemed to have recaptured that competitive fire that lead them to the super bowl last year. Unfortunately, they will be without their starting center Max Unger once again, who makes the ‘Hawks offense a full level better when he is healthy. The Eagles have done nothing to make me think they’re going to lose this game, but a lot of inside passes and Shady toting the ball would only mean good things for the Eagles. However, I believe when the secondary of Thomas, Chancellor, Maxwell, and Sherman are all healthy and fired up, they are very hard to move the ball again.

Jack’s pick: Eagles
This is probably the game of the day as the defending super bowl champs go on the road to face the 9-3 Eagles.  Eagles are coming off a thanksgiving beat down of the Dallas Cowboys on the road and the Seahawks also completely dominated the 49ers and held their offense to only 3 points.  I’m picking the Eagles because the Eagles front 7 has been completely dominant recently as they held Demarco Murray to 70 yards on 25 carries and had pressure on Romo all game.  That was against the best offensive line in the league, and the Seahawks have a terrible offensive line so the Eagles are going to have Russell Wilson running for his life all game.  The Eagles have also won 10 straight games at home, and I think they will win this one in a defensive battle.

San Francisco 49ers (7-5) @ Oakland Raiders (1-11) at 4:25PM on Sunday

Josh’s Pick: 49ers

Wouldn’t be surprised if this game is close simply because both of these teams gave terrible performances last week. In all seriousness the 49ers should absolutely win this game, but they can’t endure outings where Kaepernick plays like literally the worst passer in the NFL. If I am the offensive coordinator I do a lot of read option and try to get Kaepernick the ball in space to try to solidify the should-win game.

Jack’s pick: 49ers
I want to take the Raiders because the Niners have been pretty pathetic recently, while they are 3-1 over their last 4 they have barely beaten the Giants and Redskins at that time and looked horrible at home against Seattle last week.  I didn’t pick the Raiders this week because they just don’t have the offensive firepower to compete with the Niners defense.  They have the 32nd ranked rushing offense and the 27th ranked passing offense and they also just lost by 52 to the Rams.  I think this one will be close and hard to watch but the Niners will squeak out a win.

New England Patriots (9-3) @ San Diego Chargers (8-4) at 8:30PM on Sunday Night

Josh’s Pick: Patriots

To be honest this one has me nervous. I think the Patriots loss to Green Bay last week really helped prepare them for this road game in San Diego against a less stout crowd environment. I see the Browner manning up against Floyd, Revis takes Allen and Arrington/Dennard cover Royal in the slot. When the Patriots played the Chargers a few seasons back they completely eliminated Antonio Gates from the game but Vincent Jackson lit them up for over 200 yards. A similar tactic could be employed and I could see Gates being the one weapon the Patriots attempt to take away. Either way this game will be close like last week. The Patriots will look to get Gronk the ball a lot this game, as no one on that Chargers defense can truly take him out of this game.

Jack’s pick: Patriots
This is a great Sunday night game with massive playoff implications.  The Chargers are coming off an impressive 4th quarter comeback win over the Ravens and the Patriots lost a close game at Lambeau field.  I think this is a close game because the Chargers at home but ultimately this is Tom Brady in the second half of the season after a loss.  I’m not picking the Patriots to lose back to back games.

Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers at 8:30PM on Monday Night

Josh’s Pick: Packers

The Packers had a truly great win last week over the Patriots, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Julio Jones may be a different animal than Gronk, but this defense also sees Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall, and Alshon Jeffery twice a year. The Packers offense should have another great day as Aaron Rodgers is completely lights out at home, throwing 20 touchdowns to no interceptions at Lambeau this season. I think the Packers will be able to control Julio Jones and the Falcons recently hot passing attack, while staying consistent and dangerous on offense against an Atlanta team that has had holes in it’s secondary throughout the season (largely because they haven’t generated a great pass rush).

Jack’s pick: Packers
Atlanta brings their last ranked passing defense to Lambeau to face Aaron Rodgers who has a 143 passer rating and just shredded the Patriots excellent pass defense.  This one is going to be a bloodbath.