Examining the Cleveland Browns Free Agency and Offseason

By: Josh Fyffe

At the end of the 2013 season, there was a hint of optimism amongst the Cleveland Browns. The defense performed as a top ten unit, ranking eighth in the league in yards per game allowed. Safety TJ Ward received second team all-pro honors, Joe Haden was coming off another hyped season, and the front seven had performed solid all season long. Sure, the offense was tragic outside of standout wide receiver Josh Gordon and some solid offensive line players, but they had free agency and a top five pick in the draft to fill needs at running back and QB. If they were able to retain the defense and get a Manziel or a Bridgewater at number four, there would be a lot of hope in Cleveland coming into the 2014 season. Let’s look at how they have fared in the offseason thus far, as I believe they have made some questionable management decisions.

The Bad: They attempted to resign TJ Ward before letting him walk to Denver for a relatively cheap 4 year $23 million deal and replaced him with the older Donte Whitner (from the 49ers) on a 4 year $28 million contract. Ward apparently asked for $8 million a year from the Browns, and that was thought of as too much for them, despite giving Whitner an average of $7 million a year. Ward is going into his fifth season and really was an under the radar contributor for the Browns until the end of the season when he received his second team all-pro honors. Whitner on the other hand is going into his ninth season and is on the decline of his career. He is still a modest starter, but for a young team like the Browns trying to build for a future, it was questionable why they would take someone with an additional four years on the NFL on their resume over a system grown player; and pay the older guy five million dollars more. This isn’t just a slight down grade in immediate talent for the Browns, but a long term downgrade at the strong safety position.

              They also allowed their underrated ex-linebacker D’Qwell Jackson to waltz to the Colts on a 4 year $22 million deal, which is relatively cheap for a player who has led the AFC in tackles twice in his career since being drafted back in 2006. Right after Jackson’s depart they quickly signed Karlos Dansby (age 32 and has played four more seasons than Jackson) to a 4 year $24 million contract. Again the Browns took a player on the back half of his career and gave him more than the younger player that left them in free agency. I understand football is not always a game of youth, but the two players that left them offer more potential to a defense than the players the Browns signed in free agency as replacements. I actually believe Karlos Dansby is a great player and has had a very respectable career with the Dolphins and the Cardinals, however he benefited from a strong supporting cast in Arizona the last three seasons. Dansby could have a lot more in the tank than an average 32 year old, but to me it would have been smarter to give Jackson the cheaper deal that he wound up getting and save some spending money while also keeping a quality player.

               

The Neutral: I am very interested to see how Ben Tate works into the Cleveland offense. He received a 2 year $7 million deal, and that is the only reason why I am putting the signing into the neutral category instead categorizing as a bad signing, because in the NFL that is a relatively low amount of money. If Ben Tate can produce at his optimal level and not be battered down with the injuries that have plagued a majority of his pro career than it will come off looking like a good signing. The potential in Tate is there, but he is a risky sign to depend their running game on. I still suspect they will take a running back within rounds 2-4 to help balance the load and have a second option. However I feel that if Cleveland just were to address the RB spot solely in the draft it would have sufficed.

The Good: The brief Brandon Weeden era has finally come to an end and Cleveland fans can rejoice as the Oklahoma St. alum has joined the Cowboys. Within 30 minutes of Weeden’s release, Jason Campbell was also shown the door. Although these are not additions to the team, they are good roster moves, as Brian Hoyer showed more promise than both of these two QBs before tearing his ACL. I don’t expect Hoyer to be “the guy” next season, so hopefully they can address that postion in the first round of the draft, although they haven’t been interviewing a lot of the top projected QBs. An addition I really liked for the Browns was signing wide receiver Andrew Hawkins away from the Bengals on a 4 year $16 million offer. Although Hawkins has battled with minor injuries in his short career, he still is a reliable short yardage target and can work efficiently in the screen game (which is any QBs best friend). This may be a good addition to the team, but again I think they overpaid for a player that shows potential but hasn’t really proven himself at the pro level. In contrast Julian Edelman, who plays a similarly game to Hawkins, was top 5 in receptions last season and led the Patriots in receiving yards with over 1000, drew a 4 year $19 million and was open to testing other teams before resigning with New England. If the Browns were going to drop $16 million on Hawkins, why not pay a little more for a better quality player. Regardless of the comparisons, if Hawkins can stay healthy he is a good compliment or 3^rd receiver to Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron.

The Uncertain: Browns’ Center and two time Pro Bowler Alex Mack has yet to be resigned coming off his rookie contract. He has been a constant bright spot for the Browns since being the 21^st pick in the 2009 draft. Mack ranked 3^rd in the offseason’s top 100 free agents according to Bleacher Report and is the only player in the top 10 to not have been handed a new contract. He will be receiving a big payday from somebody, but I believe Cleveland needs to keep him if they don’t want to regress further as an organization.

Overall Thoughts: Cleveland went from a team that had a lot of youth and talent on the defensive side of the ball and swapped them for older overpaid players while also signing injury prone offensive players. The pieces are possible to come together, but everyone needs to stay healthy and they need a stellar draft to fill other holes (QB, RB, DL, DT, FS, CB2). If they end up losing out on Mack, this may look like a very bad offseason for Cleveland. I believe they took a team that was built for the future and made it a team that is built for now (since they accelerated the overall age of the team).

Overall Grade: C-

Mock Draft

 Mock Draft 1.0
By: Jack Machulski

1. Houston Texans- Jadeveon Clowney, DE South Carolina
Jadeveon Clowney looked like the consensus number one pick basically the entire year and it still hasn’t changed.  The Texans really need a Quarterback but I don’t think Bortles, Manziel, or Teddy Bridgewater are really good enough to warrant a number one pick and Clowney is just too good of a prospect to pass up.  He has great size and is also the fastest of all defensive lineman in the draft.  His 10 yard split in the 40 was a staggering 1.56 seconds, meaning he will be able to explode off the snap. A huge deal was made of Clowney only putting up 21 reps on the bench press but that shouldn’t matter whatsoever.  Firstly, his game is based entirely on speed and explosiveness to get to the quarterback and strength won’t be an issue for that.  Secondly, bench press doesn’t really test a person’s strength overall, it’s more of just the strength of Pectoral muscles.  Think his lack of strength will impact how hard he hits?  Tell that to this guy.  The biggest concern is Clowney’s character and lack of motor which are definitely legitimate.  However, I think his overally potential and skills outweigh his concerns about his motor.  If he starts to play with a high motor then the NFL better watch out, this guys is going to be a monster.

2. St. Louis Rams Via Washington Redskins- Greg Robinson, OT Auburn
I’m doing this mock draft without trades to make things simpler, but if I had to guess, the Rams don’t end up picking second.  However, if they are picking second, I think they take Greg Robinson to shore up their offensive line.  If the Rams believe in Sam Bradford as their QB for the future then Offensive Line is their only need and Greg Robinson is the best available.  He is a behemoth at 6’5 324 pounds but he can move really well too as shown by his insane 4.88 40 time.  He reminds me a bit of the Eagles Lane Johnson in terms of his raw ability and athleticism.  Johnson has turned out to be fantastic and is looking like a great pick, I think Greg Robinson would be a good pick as well at #2.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars- Teddy Bridgewater, QB Louisville
With the third pick in the draft, the Jaguars will end their quest to find a legitimate Quarterback and break away from the Blaine Gabbert era.  Teddy Bridgewater looks like the best and most pro ready Quarterback in the draft.  He has excellent footwork in the pocket and his ability to avoid pass rush is makes him one of the best QB’s at handling blitzes.  His accuracy on short to medium throws is also the best among all of the top Quarterbacks in this draft.  His main concerns are deep ball accuracy and his durability at the next level.  His deep ball passing does leave a bit to be desired but I think the durability claims are a bit outrageous.  Total games Bridgewater missed with injury during his time with Louisville: 0. The Jags are about to get their QB of the future.

4. Cleveland Browns- Johnny Manziel, QB Texas A&M
Here comes Cleveland’s savior, Johnny Football, the man who will take Cleveland from the laughing stock of the league to a legitimate contender.  I love Johnny Football, and I want him to succeed in the NFL, and that’s why I think Cleveland is the perfect place for him to go.  The Browns have a very solid defense, a very good offensive line, and one of the best WR in the NFL in Josh Gordon.  Going to the Browns gives Manziel the best situation to succeed and will make the Browns a legit football team again.  The city of Cleveland will have its first relevant superstar since Lebron.  Everything about this pick is perfect.

5. Oakland Raiders- Sammy Watkins, WR Clemson
At number 5 the Raiders get, in my opinion, the second best player in the draft in Sammy Watkins.  Watkins is a freak athlete with great hands and amazing ability after the catch.  As we all know, the Oakland Raiders absolutely love speed, sometimes to a fault.  With Manziel and Bridgewater gone here I think they go with the by far best player available and pick Watkins.

6. Atlanta Falcons- Jake Matthews, OT Texas A&M
There has been a lot of speculation whether Atlanta would keep this pick or try to trade up, but I’m not doing trades so I think the Falcons will take Jake Matthews.  The Falcons had a very disappointing season after making it all the way to the NFC championship the year before they slipped all the way to the number 6 pick.  They desperately need help along both the offensive and defensive line and since Khalil Mack wouldn’t really fit their 4-3 style of defense, they won’t take him here.  If Houston doesn’t pick Clowney, I would almost guarantee the Falcons trade up to grab him, but if they stay put they should work on the offensive line.  Jake Matthews is widely considered the best or second best tackle prospect in the draft behind Greg Robinson and would greatly bolster their shaky line and keep Ryan upright.

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Khalil Mack, OLB Buffalo
This is every Bucs fan after Mack falls to them at 7.  Mack is probably the third best prospect in the draft in my opinion and the Bucs are getting him all the way at 7th.  Mack is a physical specimen at 6’3 251 and apparently ran a 4.54 at his pro day.  Unreal.  He has crazy first step quickness and the power to push the tackle back and speed to run around him, Mack also has very developed pass rush moves to get to the ball carrier.  He lives in the other teams backfield, Mack set the record for most tackles for a loss in a career while at Buffalo.  Worried about how he played against inferior MAC competition?  Check out the game he had against Ohio State, he was dominant.

8. Minnesota Vikings- Blake Bortles, QB UCF
Vikings finally get the Quarterback they have been looking for at 8 by selecting Bortles Kombat.  Blake Bortles may have the highest ceiling of any QB in the draft, he is big, strong armed, extremely athletic, and has good natural ability as a quarterback.  He also does very well with pressure in his face.  He struggles with the finer things at the Quarterback position like footwork and making reads but they could develop with coaching and time.  I think Minnesota has basically wasted AP’s prime by not giving him a good Quarterback, they should add Bortles here to try to salvage the rest of his career and hopefully add a franchise Quarterback.

9. Buffalo Bills- Eric Ebron, TE UNC
At number 9 I love Ebron for the Bills.  Ebron is probably my second favorite prospect in the draft next to Watkins, and I have been high on him ever since his huge game against Miami early in the season.  The Bills already have a very solid defense and their biggest need is to provide offensive weapons for new QB EJ Manuel.  Ebron has potential to be a Jimmy Graham like TE for the Bills as a dangerous downfield threat and a good chain mover.  The other move here would be to draft Mike Evans, but why take him when the WR position is so deep in this draft.  If they need a receiver they can take one in the second round but they should definitely go with Ebron here.

10. Detroit Lions- Mike Evans, WR Texas A&M
Mike Evans rounds out the top 10 as the third A&M player selected already.  With this pick they get another person to pair with Megatron and take away the double and triple teams that he routinely sees.  Evans is your typical big wide receiver at 6’5 who will make a living by making plays in traffic at the next level.  At 6’5 with a 37 inch vertical he will be able to get higher than pretty much any cornerback or safety to make the catch.  His biggest criticism is that he lacks speed and ability to separate, but a 4.53 40 at 6’5 is pretty solid.  I think Evans will take the Lions offense to a whole new level.

11. Tennessee Titans- Anthony Barr, OLB UCLA
This pick will be made regardless of what the Titans need, Barr is absolutely the best player available.  Barr is definitely raw and has tons of room to improve as he has only been playing Linebacker for 2 years at UCLA, but the talent is undeniable.  The former running back has exceptional speed and ability to get around the tackle as well as the ability to convert speed to power.  His main weaknesses are instincts and use of his hands when rushing, but these can be fixed by playing more than two years at the position.  He has the potential to be a double digit sack guy year in and year out.

12. New York Giants- Justin Gilbert, CB Oklahoma State
The Giants have needs everywhere: O-Line, D-Line, Running Back, and Cornerback.  I think they go with Justin Gilbert here and shore up the Cornerback position because there isn’t really another O-line or D-line prospect that is worth the number 12 pick.  Gilbert is the most athletic corner in the class and ran a 4.35 40 at the combine.  Gilbert will also make an impact in the return game, he set a record with 5 kick returns for touchdowns while at Oklahoma State.

13. St. Louis Rams- Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S Alabama
The Rams use the thirteenth pick to grab the best name in all of the NFL: Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, who immediately takes the crown from Alterraun Verner.  Clinton-Dix is the best safety prospect in the league and it shores up an immediate need as the Rams safety position has been mediocre at best.  With all of the top weapons in the passing game taken already, they can upgrade in the secondary.

14. Chicago Bears- Aaron Donald, DT Pitt
The Bears have a pretty big hole on the defensive line and need talent at both the tackle and end positions.  Enter Aaron Donald.  Donald is one of the most versatile prospects in the draft with great speed off the snap and ability to play DT, NT, and a 3-4 DE.  Donald will fit whatever role the Bears need him to fill and will help shore up the D-Line.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers- Taylor Lewan, OT Michigan
Big Ben was sacked 42 times last year and that is definitely an issue.  Pittsburgh could use another stud tackle and they will definitely get that with Lewan.  Lewan started all 4 years while at Michigan where he constantly faced top competition in the Big 10, and showed great consistency.  Taylor may not have great upside but he is one of the most consistent prospects in the entire draft.

16. Dallas Cowboys- Timmy Jernigan, DT Florida State
First player from the reigning national championship team to go in the draft and he will help a pretty terrible Dallas Cowboys line.  Jernigan has the ability to be one of the best run stoppers in the game as he has awesome strength and is extremely hard to engage at the line.  Jernigan’s main criticism is that he will get tired because he isn’t in the best physical shape, I think this is overblown a bit but I still can’t wait for him to play against my Philadelphia Eagles and see how he holds up.

17. Baltimore Ravens- Marquise Lee, WR USC
Torrey Smith has proven to be a good deep threat for Joe Flacco to use but the Ravens need to get a more consistent receiver.  Marquise Lee was projected to be a top 5 pick at the beginning of the year but his stock took a tumble after a Junior year plagued with injuries and coaching changes.  Lee is a freak athlete with great after the catch ability.  His main weakness is his ability to secure the ball in traffic and his durability.  If he can become a more consistent pass catcher and stay healthy, the Ravens will have an absolute steal with him at #17.

18. New York Jets- Odell Beckham Jr., WR LSU
New York really needs a new playmaker on offense.  When your top receivers are a beyond washed up Santonio Holmes and Jeremy Kerley, your gonna want to spend some picks on a receiver.  The Jets played well enough down the stretch to take themselves out of contention for the top 3 receivers and for Eric Ebron.  I think Beckham Jr is a bit of reach here but definitely worth it since the Jets have so little offensive playmaking talent.  Beckham’s biggest strength is that he catches absolutely everything that comes his way.  Everything.  He doesn’t seem to be able to get a ton of separation and isn’t very big, but he still ends up catching everything.  I think he would be a good fit in New York.

19. Miami Dolphins- Antonio Richardson, OT Tennessee
An offensive tackle is a no brainer right here for the Dolphins.  After the scandal with Incognito and Martin took both of those players off the team they were left with a huge hole at that position.  Ryan Tannehill was the most sacked QB in the league last year and they need to get someone to protect him.  Antonio Richardson is pretty raw but he has extreme amounts of potential.  At 6’6 336 pounds he is very difficult to move and can just use his brute strength to bulldoze defenders.  Most of his weaknesses are mental: he rises out of his stance too quickly and has poor technique.  He won’t be perfect right away but the Dolphins should take him because of the potential.

20. Arizona Cardinals- Darqueeze Dennard, CB Michigan St.
Arizona is one of the most complete teams in the NFL, all they really need is a good QB and they will be contenders.  The Cardinals for some reason still think Carson Palmer is still the answer at the position so I don’t see them going QB.  I think instead they will pick Dennard and create the best young CB tandem in the league.  Dennard is seen as the best shutdown corner in the draft and playing alongside Patrick Peterson their pass defense should be insanely good.  I’m terrified of the Cardinals after this pick.

21. Green Bay Packers- CJ Mosley, MLB Alabama
Packers go with BPA here, picking CJ Mosley from Alabama and pairing him with AJ Hawk in the middle.  Mosley is considered one of the 10 best prospects in the draft but slips down to 21 because MLB’s are generally easy to find in later rounds.  The talent Mosley has is pretty incredible and he basically seems like a surefire good player at the next level.

22. Philadelphia Eagles- Calvin Pryor, S Louisville
With this pick the Eagles grab not only the best player available but also fix a huge need.  After watching Patrick Chung blow coverage after coverage and basically suck for the entirety of last year, I am ecstatic to have a new safety on my favorite team.  Earl Wolff showed flashes of potential last year but he was unable to stay healthy with nagging knee injuries, Nate Allen was consistent but nothing better than average.  Pryor’s best and worst trait is his aggressive nature.  He is incredibly active in the run game and is a lights out hitter, he also plays the ball extremely well and can make great plays in coverage. However his aggressive nature can cause him to take bad angles on tackles and in coverage.  However, Eagles fans just want to see someone other than Chung and Pryor would be perfect.

23. Kansas City Chiefs- Kelvin Benjamin, WR Florida State
Dwayne Bowe is past his prime and has failed to put up production worthy of a number one receiver.  Adding Kelvin Benjamin would give them someone who has the potential to be a #1 receiver and make the offense much better.  Benjamin is massive at 6’5 240 pounds and has the ability to climb the ladder to make the catch.  His biggest criticism is that he has a pretty big problem with drops, but the potential outweighs the risk of the drops.

24. Cincinnati Bengals- Jason Verrett, CB TCU
I think Verrett would be a great pick at number 24 for the Bengals.  He has shown on his tape to be a very good cover corner and he also performed well at the combine.  He is only 5’9 but plays much bigger and with a 40 inch vertical and a 4.39 40 time he has the speed to keep up with anyone and ups to contest jump balls with bigger corners.

25. San Diego Chargers- Bradley Roby, CB Ohio State
San Diego had their guy, Jason Verrett, taken right in front of them so they chose the next best corner in Bradley Roby.  Roby is extremely quick and has the athleticism to make huge plays at the next level.  His main concern is that his play, while often spectacular, is equally erratic.  If he becomes consistent then he will be a great pick.

26. Cleveland Browns- Ryan Shazier, LB Ohio State
Cleveland picks up the most athletic linebacker and maybe even player in the draft in Ryan Shazier.  The Big 12’s reigning tackler had a 42 inch vertical at the combine and ran an unofficial 4.36 40 at his pro day.  That time may be unofficial but that’s incredibly fast, especially for a linebacker.  Shazier will definitely improve the Cleveland pass rush next year.

27. New Orleans Saints- Dee Ford, DE Auburn
Dee Ford wasn’t really on the radar as a first round pick after the college season ended, but after dominating the senior bowl his draft stock has rocketed.  Ford will be good in the passing game as he has the speed and bend to get around the edge but he is undersized and will struggle against the run.  He reminds me a lot of Trent Cole, and if he can do what Trent Cole has done for the Eagles he will be worthy of the 27th pick.

28. Carolina Panthers- Brandin Cooks, WR Oregon State
Cam Newton needs some new toys to play with and since they are trying to trade Steve Smith, they are going to need to pick a wide receiver.  Cooks led the nation in receiving yards and touchdowns and was second in receptions and was the recipient of the Biletnikoff award for the nation’s top receiver.  He had the top 40 time out of all the receivers in the draft and has the combination of that blazing speed and the hands to be an all-around great receiver.

29. New England Patriots- Louis Nix III, NT Notre Dame
Patriots simply go with the best player available here.  Louis Nix is one of the best prospects in the draft but slides all the way to 29 for the Pats to scoop up.  With Vince Wilfork recovering from a torn Achilles it may be time to replace the big fella with another big fella in Louis Nix.

30. San Francisco 49ers- Kyle Fuller, CB Virginia Tech
With Carlos Rogers looking like he may be a cap casualty, the Niners are going to have to pick up a corner to replace him.  Fuller is great in man coverage with the bounce and hands to go up and make interceptions.  His ability in man coverage is questionable but he should be able to contribute right away on defense.

31. Denver Broncos- Zach Martin, OT Notre Dame
Denver gets by far the best player available in Zach Martin all the way at 31.  He is a very good offensive tackle and will help protect Manning.

32. Seattle Seahawks- Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, TE Washington
The Hawks stay right in Seattle for their first pick and grab the big Tight End from Washington.  Jenkins is a massive target at 6’6 and 262 pounds and will help both in the vertical passing game and in the red zone.

A Note on Coaching

Why the Personality of a Head Coach can lead a team to success
By Josh Fyffe     

     

           In the NFL we are dealt with a range of head coaches varying in strategical strengths and weaknesses and certainly different locker-room personalities. I have never valued the personality aspect of a head coaching position until examining examples from other sports and teams that have exhibited success.

Being a Syracuse student, I am obviously heavy on the Orange bandwagon, as we have been a top 10 team all season long, and at one point we became the first team to be unanimously ranked number 1 since Duke in 2010. Anyways, I don’t know if you saw Tyler Ennis’ shot at the end of the Pitt game but it was probably one of the best first hand experiences of my personal sports-fan life. But what was even better about the win as a whole was Jim Boeheim’s reaction.

Boeheim was quoted right after the game saying that Ennis had played his worst game for the Orange and then went into the locker room and berated the whole team for completely under performing (which they did). He went around the locker room and said something along the lines of “you played like shit, you played like shit, you played like shit, Ennis that was a hell of a shot I will give it to you, but this cannot happen again.” Boeheim did an excellent job of separating the elation of winning on a buzzer beater and keeping an undefeated season alive and still maintaining the mindset of not getting carried away by the win and improving the mentality as a team.

Relating this back to the NFL, let’s look at two polar opposite head coaches (in terms of locker room personality); Rex Ryan (of the New York Jets) and Bill Belichick (of the New England Patriots). Put Ryan into Boeheim’s position, would he react in the same way? No way. He would be the type of person who would have a few 30 racks waiting in the locker room and would run in (or waddle in) dousing Ennis in champagne spray.  Belichick on the other hand would walk in a bit relieved (from winning the game) but at the same time disgusted. Belichick exhibited this type of reaction earlier in the 2013 season when the Patriots pulled out a highly improbable win down 12 in the final two minutes against the Browns. Although Belichick was happy that the Patriots won the game, he knows they will not be prepared the following week if he doesn’t crack down hard in the locker room after.

My personal biases aside, why does a head coach’s personal reaction to this type of win matter? Looking throughout the history of Ryan’s coaching tenure with the Jets, there always has been some type of midseason collapse (like they again exhibited this season). A lot of people forget but they were pegged as the probable six seed for the AFC playoff picture when they were sitting at 5-4 and coming off a big home win over the Saints going into their bye week. I’m sure Ryan was ecstatic after knocking off a top tier team like the Saints, especially after besting the Patriots in the previous weeks. However, these positive reactions by Ryan were detrimental to his team’s success; I believe he took away their drive. I am not implying that the Jets had a very talented roster this season to begin with, however they had the defensive man power to handle both the Saints and Patriots high flying offenses. After the bye week the Jets continued on to lose their next 4 of 5 including a three game losing streak to non-playoff opponents. The Jets ended the season catching fire, but only because they found something to play for again (saving their head coaches job).

Employing a hard to please mentality such as Belichick or Boeheim pushes the best out players. After an important win, having a “not good enough” mindset will only push players more to improve. Coach K of Duke has done this for years as well, and it is no coincidence that Boeheim and Coach K are at the top of the all-time college hoops coaching greats.

Make no mistake that I believe that Rex Ryan has a very intellectual defensive football mind, his brother does too. Rex could have actually been one of the most revered defensive coordinators of all time if he stuck with the position, but I believe that because of his locker room personality, he cannot be the forefront of a team that holds a winning tenure, despite his defensive intangibles. Head coaches that are reserved and critical in the locker room will squeeze the pulp of their players and breed a successful franchise (ie Belichick, Boeheim, Coach K, and even Joe Torre).

My advice to teams hiring head coaches in the future; look for the critical and hard to please coaches that can drive players and keep them grinding even after the most rewarding wins, not the coaches that get swept away with the intoxication of a significant win and have historically continued to fall short of the threshold of greatness.

Super Bowl Preview

By: Jack Machulski

Record: 1-0
Last Week: 1-0

                How the Seahawks will win:  The formula for the Seahawks success so far has been: Forcing turnovers + limiting turnovers + Marshawn Lynch= Victory.  This was evident in last week’s win over the 49ers where the Hawks forced a turnover on the Niners last 3 possessions and Lynch ran for 109 yards including a 40 yard TD.  However, the Denver Broncos are a totally different animal and this formula will probably not be enough for the Seahawks to win.  The main thing they have to do is stop the leagues most talented receiving corps and best quarterback in Peyton Manning.  Luckily, they are well equipped to do this, at least on paper.  Sherman will probably be on Demaryius Thomas the entire game, which should make him a non-factor, the Hawks will also probably blanket Julian Thomas with either Killa Kam Chancellor, a linebacker, or potentially both.  The matchups I would worry about if I were the Seahawks are Byron Maxwell on Eric Decker and Perrish Cox on Wes Welker.  Although both of them are solid corners, Decker and Welker are extremely talented for #2 and #3 receivers.  Maxwell proved himself last week by playing pretty well against Anquan Boldin but Cox covering Welker is still a huge question mark.  I don’t think Knowshon Moreno should be much of a worry for the Hawks because remember Knowshon Sucks, but seriously Knowshon may pile up some yards but he still shouldn’t be a concern for the Hawks. 

                The biggest concern for the Hawks and the biggest “X-factor” in this game will be the play of Russell Wilson.  He has basically been horrendous over the last 2 months but his team always found a way to win against the Broncos however, this will not be enough. Wilson has to play a good game from start to finish and he has to throw for more than just 160 yards which has been his postseason average.  If you are going against Manning, 160 yards just won’t cut it.  Another huge X-factor for Seattle is Wide Receiver Percy Harvin.  Although he has only played 39 snaps this year he is still one of the most talented wide receivers in the league who has the capability to change a game with one play.  Having only played 39 snaps, Harvin is a complete wildcard, the Broncos have no idea how the Hawks will use him so if he can stay on the field he could end up being a huge lift to the Seahawks offense.  I’m not going to spend too much time talking about how Marshawn Lynch needs to have a huge game because that is obvious, Lynch is the biggest key to their success, and he absolutely needs more than 100 yards rushing if they want to win this game. 

                Why Denver Will win:  The case for the Broncos winning could really just be two words: Peyton Manning, but football is a team sports so let’s look at why the Broncos are going to be the winners of Superbowl 48. 

                Although Peyton Manning isn’t the only reason they will win, it is certainly the biggest one.  He is having the single greatest season ever by a quarterback, and the one thing he needs is a Super Bowl trophy to cap off the perfect season.  The biggest factor contributing to his success is that he has Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Wes Welker, and Julius Thomas giving opposing secondaries nightmares.  Although the Seahawks have the best secondary in the league, throwing 3 amazing receivers and a great tight end at them may be too much to handle.  If Seattle starts to really play the pass, Knowshon Moreno should be able to take advantage of all the attention being put on Manning and potentially make some plays. 

                On defense the real key is to stop Marshawn Lynch, two weeks ago, they stopped Legarette Blount and Steven Ridley which basically ruined the Patriots offense and led to the dominant win.  If they can make Russell Wilson beat them with the pass, I think they run away with this one.

                Final Verdict:  I think the Broncos are going to take this one.  Manning and his receivers will be too much for the Seattle secondary to handle and Wilson won’t be able to make up for it on the offensive side.

Score Prediction:  Denver 31 Seattle 21

Bold Prediction:  Russell Wilson 3 INT’s

Super Bowl Pick

By: Josh Fyffe
Record: 5-5
Last Week: 1-1

Denver Broncos vs Seattle Seahawks @ MetLife Stadium, NJ

Winner: Denver Broncos: 34 - Seattle Seahawks: 23

Reasoning: Regardless of how good the Seattle defense is, no team can truly match up against the weapons that the Denver Broncos possess. The Seahawks have the best chance of any team to shut down this Denver offense, but this game has to be won by Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch and the rest of the offense; and I don’t see the Hawks doing that.

              Let’s just look at the matchups for Seattle on defense. They have the best cornerback in the NFL in Richard Sherman, who actually will matchup quite well against Denver’s best weapon Demaryius Thomas – I’m thinking similarly to how Aqib Talib of the Patriots shut him down in the Patriots first meeting with Denver. So Seattle may win that one specific matchup, but there are plenty more people to throw to on Denver (I also believe that Demaryius will still muster up at least two big plays despite having Sherman on him for most of the night). Let’s look to another one of Peyton’s targets, Julius Thomas. J. Thomas will most likely be covered by a linebacker with Kam Chancellor over the top, which again merits a matchup victory for the Seahawks, however I see Jacob Tamme ending up being Peyton’s leading receiving-tightend in the Super Bowl. Tamme will be overlooked by the Seattle defense and as a result will have just a linebacker on him on a lot of plays, giving Peyton a good look all game long. Seattle also has to worry about Welker and Eric Decker, one of which will be covered by Byron Maxwell and the other will likely be taken by their third corner Perrish Cox, who was actually a Bronco in his rookie season in 2010. Earl Thomas will be roaming the field, as he has done all season, and I personally don’t think there is a free safety even close to his level right now, however he is only one player, and only can create one more double coverage. Because of all of these one on one matchups, I really don’t see how the talent on Denver won’t be able to get open for Peyton. And what if Seattle sends all their linebackers into coverage? Well Peyton just happens to be the game’s finest at identifying defenses and coverage schemes, and he will gladly audible to run a play with the revived Moreno in the backfield against a cover-4 look. There has also been a lot of hype surrounding Seattle’s amazing pass rush, which pressured opposing quarterback’s a league high 32%, however Denver has been exceptional in the postseason in not even allowing a sack on offense. I wouldn’t give the credit to Denver’s offensive line though; it’s really just great offensive scheme by Denver, a lot of quick throws and well-timed short routes can nip any pass rush in the bud.

              Now let’s look at Seattle’s offensive matchups against Denver. This postseason Russell Wilson has been an absolute dud. Through two games he has 318 yards, as many touchdowns as turnovers, and a pedestrian completion percentage of 58%. Granted he played two solid defenses and the offense is focused around the running game, but they are now going up against a very underrated Broncos defense which has put the clamps on their last two opponents. I noted in my post last week that the Broncos had a rush defense that allowed under 4.0 yards per carry in the regular season and that trend has continued thus far into the postseason. They shut down both the Chargers and the Patriots potent rushing attacks and Terrence Knighton aka “Pot Roast” has been the unsung hero of this Broncos defense, and really has made the absence of Von Miller forgotten. I feel like the Denver defense can somewhat neutralize Marshawn Lynch, although he has been a monster this postseason. Lynch has been the most valuable player in the postseason so far, as he has single handedly carried the Seattle Seahawks’ offense. However, if he gets shut down early and Denver can put up two quick scores (which is very plausible) then the Seahawks might panic and slowly abandon the run game. I also think that you can’t win a Super Bowl with receivers like Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin leading the way (unless you’re Tom Brady). It will also be interesting to see if Percy Harvin can have an impact on the game before breaking a fingernail in the second quarter and sitting out the rest of the game.

              Let’s also think about how Seattle will play on the road. Seattle may be one of the best home teams in pro football but they have had their struggles on the road through Russell Wilson’s career, having all but one of his career losses come on road turf. People keep chirping about Peyton playing poorly in cold weather, but I feel like Russell Wilson playing on the road has a bigger potential for a letdown. Side Note: If you are rooting for Seattle, hope for the worst weather possible, because bad weather could really alter the outcome of the game if it forces both teams to run the football, which would heavily benefit Seattle.

              Although I will be rooting for Seattle, I would only give them a 15% chance of winning due to the aforementioned factors.  I also believe Peyton has gotten over the hump of being a choke. Denver isn’t afraid to throw the ball with the lead and the game on the line. John Fox and Co. learned from last year’s early exit that they have to keep the ball in Peyton’s hands when they need a first down. And even if Peyton does choke and they only put up 20 points against Seattle’s defense, I just don’t see the Hawks being able to compete on offense.

              Peyton Manning will win his second ring in three attempts and become the first quarterback to win a Super Bowl with two different teams, while the Seahawks will return back to the hunt next season for their first. 

NFC Championship Recap

By: Jack Machulski

I have no idea where to start with this game.  First of all, it was my favorite football game of the year, and the second half may have been my favorite half of football I have ever watched.  This game had everything: big plays, huge hits, and one of the most exciting endings ever followed by the greatest post-game interview ever. 

                The biggest storyline after the game was obviously the brilliant final play and post-game interview by Richard Sherman.  However, that has turned the focus into Sherman V. Erin Andrews/Crabtree/Cranky old people and racists that think he is a “thug”, when the focus should be on Seahawks V. 49ers.

                The Seahawks had a nightmare of a start to this game.  After electing to receive, Russell Wilson was sacked and stripped on the first play of the game by Aldon Smith, giving the 49ers the ball inside the 20.  Russell Wilson is the second best QB in the league at extending plays with his feet and making throws downfield (Big Ben is the best) but sometimes the scrambling can get him in trouble.  On this particular play, he was holding the ball low around his waist, making it an easy target for Smith to swipe at.  Fortunately for Wilson, he has the league’s best defense behind him and the Hawks were able to get a stop on third down, holding the Niners to only a field goal.  (3-0 Niners)

                Things didn’t get better for the Seahawks as their offense went three and out on the next drive, and the teams exchanged punts for the rest of the first quarter.  There were some exciting plays such as Kasim Osgood downing a punt at the 1 yard line and Lamichael James getting absolutely blown up by Ricardo “Rocket” Lockette, but no scoring and after one quarter it was still 3-0 Niners. 

                The 49ers caught a break after James got lit up, he muffed the punt but all the Seahawks were going for the big hit, and SF was able to recover the football.  The SF offense looked like it was stalling but then Richard Sherman committed an unnecessary holding penalty on Crabtree, which gave the 49ers a crucial first down.  After that, the Hawks defense were victims of Kaepernick’s legs, who went into full “Turbo Ostrich” mode, scrambling for a 12 yard run for a first down then a 58 yarder down to the Hawks 10 yard line.  Frank Gore runs to the 1 yard line and after the first try was unsuccessful, Anthony Dixon was able to leap over the pile for the touchdown.  Things are not looking good for Seattle.  (10-0 Niners) 

                The Hawks desperately need to get something going on offense, a two score lead is tough to come back from against the great Niners defense but if they let it get any worse it could have proven fatal.  The offense had looked anemic so far, but they finally got a big play from Wilson.  This time, we saw the positive results of his long scrambles as he was able to extend the play and hit Doug Baldwin for a 51 yard gain and put Seattle in the redzone.  The offense wasn’t able to do anything else and they had to settle for a field goal, but at least they got on the board. (10-3 Niners)

                After the Seahawks score, the 49ers go 3 and out and the Seahawks put together a drive but turn it over on downs with 20 seconds left.  Going into the half its 10-3 SF and they also get ball to start the third quarter.  This game was definitely in San Francisco’s favor.

                Much like the Seahawks in the first half, the 49ers were unable to capitalize on receiving the ball to start the half and went three and out.  A terrible punt by Andy Lee gave the Seahawks the ball on the 40 yard line and in excellent position to score.

                On this drive, the Hawks went to their rock Marshawn Lynch, who picked up 12 yards on the first play of the drive and got the ball to the Niners 40.  Then on 3^rd and 1, Lynch busts open the 49ers defense for a 40 yard touchdown.  Skittles for almost everyone!!  (10-10 Tie)

                All the momentum seemed to be in favor of the 49ers, but Kaepernick responded by piecing together a beautiful drive.  Kaepernick made a beautiful pass to Michael Crabtree for 22 yards and had another scramble for 22 yards.  After getting a very friendly bounce on a fumble, Kaep threw a 26 yard dart to Anquan Boldin that was just out of the reach of Earl Thomas.  Touchdown San Francisco. (17-10 Niners)

                After taking every bit of momentum away with the great touchdown drive, the 49ers special teams gave it all back, allowing Doug Baldwin to return the kick 70 yards to their own 33 yard line.  But the 49ers defense was able to hold strong as they forced the Seahawks to kick a 40 yard field goal, which Hauschka nails.  (17-13 Niners)

                The 49ers go three and out, as Gore is stopped for no gain, Chancellor blows up Vernon Davis, and Kaepernick overthrows Crabtree.  Seattle commits a running into the kicker penalty on the punt which the forever annoying and douchey “rules analyst” Mike Pereira told us should have given the 49ers the first down.  It looked like the punter landed on him on purpose so I’m glad that the refs didn’t listen to Mike. 

                After getting the ball back, the Seahawks are driving it down the field with a steady dose of short passes and Lynch runs.  At 2^nd and 6 at the 35 yard line, bad scrambling Russell Wilson strikes again as he runs all the way back to the 50 then commits an intentional grounding (which caused John Harbaugh to explore his musical talents while looking for the call), making it 3^rd and 22 .  So far Russell has had a 51 yard pass but a huge intentional grounding penalty and strip sack while scrambling, bad scrambling Russell 2, good scrambling Russell 1.  However, Wilson makes up for it.  On 3^rd and 22 he gets a nice dump pass to Zach Miller to make it a manageable 4^th and 7.  Then Pete Carrol makes an incredibly ballsy playcall, sending all 3 receivers deep to the endzone.  Russell hooks up with Jermaine Kearse for a 35 yard touchdown.  Wow, just wow. (20-17 Seattle)

                Kaepernick leads his offense back out onto the field but this time he is trailing for the first time in the game.  After converting a third down to Boldin, the Niners get it to third and 1, which looks like it will be easily picked up with a short run.  However, a delay of game penalty makes it 3^rd and 6 and forced the Niners to throw.  On the play, Cliff Avril beats his man, and Kaep is rolling out to his left, holding the ball with only one hand, and Avril is able to strip it out.  Michael Bennet scoops it and runs to the 6 yard line, huge play for the Seahawks and it looked like they were going to put away the game. 

                The Seahawks get a false start penalty which made it second and goal from the 9, and after Wilson overthrows Golden Tate it brought up third and goal from the 9.  This turned out to be one of the most interesting plays of the game.  Russell Wilson throws it to Jermaine Kearse, who makes the catch, but Navorro Bowman comes up to make the tackle and wrestles it away from him, Eric Reid hits Kearse but pins Bowman’s leg underneath, which completely tears up his knee (click at your own risk).  It was clearly either a catch and forced fumble, or an incompletion and interception because the ball didn’t touch the ground, but it was called a catch and runner down on the field and for some stupid reason it was not a reviewable play, seriously NFL please fix this.  I really wish this was an INT because Bowman made an amazing play while getting his knee torn apart, he is a true warrior.  Sucks to see one of the best linebackers in the NFL go down making such a great play, but for it not to count because of a dumb rule.  However, the football gods/spirit of Navorro Bowman restore balance to the football universe, as Pete Carrol stupidly decides to go for it on fourth down.  Lynch and Wilson mess up the exchange and fumble it, giving the 49ers the ball. 

                Since the fumble bounced a long way, the Niners actually end up with the ball on the 15 yard line.  Kendall Hunter runs through a few tackles and picks up 11 on the first play and it looks like the 49ers might put together a drive.  However, on the very next play,Kaepernick throws a terrible interception right to Kam Chancellor.  Just a horrible decision by Kaepernick and it was his second straight turnover.

                Wilson has the ball at the 40 for the drive, he gets them to around the 30 but then offensive pass interference brings them to 3^rd and 18.  Wilson is able to get the ball to the 29 for a manageable 47 yard field goal, which Hauschka nails. (23-17 Seattle)

                The Seahawks give the ball back to the 49ers with the dreaded 6 point lead and 3:37 left on the clock.  The first thing I noticed about the 49ers on this drive is that they played with 0 urgency, letting the play clock run all the way down to one second before snapping the ball, which cost them precious time.  On third and 2, the Niners ran a slant route to Crabtree, who made a “business decision” and decided to let the pass go and avoid the huge incoming hit from Kam Chancellor.  Luckily, Kaepernick was able to make a play on 4^th and 2, rolling out to his left and hitting Frank Gore for a huge first down.  Kaep continues to drive the ball and gets into Seahawks territory with 1:19 left to play after hitting Boldin for a 4 yard gain bringing up 3^rd and 2.  On third and 2 he hits Crabtree on a play that looked very similar to the one he threw an interception on earlier, it picks up 15 yards and the Niners are at the thirty.  Next play is an 11 yard pass to Vernon Davis which moves them only 17 yards away from the endzone and a birth to Super Bowl XLVIII.  However there is only 30 seconds left and Kaepernick decides to take a shot at the endzone, and he threw just about a perfect pass to Crabtree in the corner.  The only mistake Kaepernick made was challenging Richard Sherman, the best cornerback in the league, who contorted his body and tipped the ball and the super bowl dreams of the Niners into the arms of Malcolm Smith. Game Over. Seahawks win.  Richard Sherman does it again. 

               

               

                 

                

NFC Championship Pick

By: Jack Machulski

Record: 0-0

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks:

Why San Francisco will win: San Francisco comes into this game with more momentum than any team in the playoffs, having won the last two games on the road and they are playing their best football of the year. The biggest strength of the 49ers has been the front 7, featuring 3 pro bowl linebackers and 2 great pass rushers in Justin Smith and Aldon Smith. They are going to need this front 7 to be on their game Sunday as they will face off against one of the league’s best running backs in Marshawn Lynch. Their running defense is ranked 9th in yards per carry, allowing an average of 3.9 yards every rushing attempt. If they can hold Lynch to 3 yards per carry they will have a huge advantage as they will force Russell Wilson to have to create more plays. However, Russell Wilson is no Brandon Weeden, and stopping him is not a guarantee, even though he has been struggling mightily as of late. The 49ers have a solid pass defense, ranked 9th by Football Outsiders in DVOA, and have held opposing QB’s to the fourth lowest passer rating in the league. The secondary doesn’t really have a shutdown cornerback, especially with Carlos Rogers hobbled by a hamstring injury. The good news for the 49ers is that the Seahawks don’t really have a standout wide receiver that needs to be shut down. I feel like the San Francisco defense will have no problem getting stops against the Seattle offense.

The real problem for the 49ers will be scoring on Seattle’s vaunted defense which is one of, if not the best in the NFL. The Niners have to look to get Frank Gore going as they really don’t want to have to rely on the passing game against the Seahawks secondary. The Seahawks are ranked #1 in yards allowed per pass, pass DVOA, interceptions, and basically every metric you could use to measure pass defense but the Niners do have hope. Their receiving core is probably the best on any team not named Denver, with Crabtree, Boldin, and Vernon Davis. Anquan Boldin is known for having huge games in the playoffs and he has been huge for this Niners team. The Seahawks line backing crew is not nearly as good as its secondary so they could run into problems covering Vernon Davis as well. If the receivers can make a few plays early, Earl Thomas will be asked to give help over the top, opening up the middle of the field for Davis. Ultimately, passing on this Seattle defense is not easy and for the 49ers to win they will have to establish the run on offense and stop the Seahawks from doing the same. If this game is kept extremely close, I like San Francisco’s chances.

Why Seattle will win: Obviously, the Seahawks get a pretty sizeable advantage with this game being played in Seattle where they are 8-1 and have the loudest stadium in the NFL. The Seahawks are solid at almost every single position and have probably been the NFL’s most consistent team over the course of the season. For Seattle to win they have to be able to stop Frank Gore. Gore may not be electric like Lesean McCoy or as exciting as their own running back Marshawn Lynch, but he is still key to the Niners offense. If they can force Kaepernick to beat them through the air it is pretty much game over for the Niners. The Seahawks also lead the league in turnover margin, forcing 28 (!!!) interceptions this year. I could definitely see them forcing some turnovers from the young Kaepernick, and most of the time whoever wins the turnover battle wins the game. A matchup to watch will be Richard Sherman on Anquan Boldin which is poised to be incredibly fun. Sherman is the best Cornerback in the league so he will probably be able to shut down whatever receiver he matches up against. Side note: Both Boldin and Sherman are notorious trash talkers and known for mixing it up with whoever they are lined up against. The thought of the NFL putting this on Mic’d up has me giddy just thinking about it.

Russell Wilson is a very exciting quarterback with great mobility, but as the season has worn on he has been mediocre as a passer. Wilson had only (106) yards against the Saints defense in the divisional round and except for one great throw down the sideline to Doug Baldwin, he didn’t make that many good throws either. The Seahawks biggest weakness has been the offensive line and if Russell is running for his life the entire game they probably won’t be able to move the ball through the air. If they don’t establish the run game, the talented pass rushers on the Niners will be able to pin their ears back and rush at Wilson every snap. If Lynch gets going the pass rushers will start to focus on him which opens up the play action passing game and will help keep Wilson from getting sacked. If they can do this, they will be able to put up some points on the 49ers defense.

Final Verdict: These teams are so close it is almost impossible to predict a winner, but I’m going to give a slight edge to the Seahawks and their 12th man. This game will feature both running backs very heavily and I think Marshawn Lynch will play better than Frank Gore. If Seattle can get a two score lead I think they will be able to pull it out because I don’t trust Kaepernick to beat the Seahawks with the pass and catch up.

Final Score: Seattle 24 San Francisco 17

Bold Prediction: Richard Sherman pick 6.